You absolutely should not, under any circumstances, take the performances of Spring Training baseball players and use them to project anything meaningful for the future. Except, maybe sometimes.
Games played in February and March can make stats a bit of a misnomer. Lots of players are working on new mechanics or strategies that they might not carry into the season. There are also plenty of minor leaguers getting some run, giving a wide range of potential opponents that don’t necessarily help us understand how a particular player might fare in MLB.
However, they don’t play these games for no reason at all and if we are willing to take a deeper look, we can find a few projections worth considering. Then, because its a time when hope springs eternal and its a bit more fun, we can add a little spice and make some bold takes.
Here are three bold(ish) predictions about the Colorado Rockies in 2024 based entirely on Spring Training.
- The Offense will be Much Improved
The Rockies have quietly had pretty poor lineups for the last few seasons, but it looks like things might be finally turning around.
It is to be expected that second-year players take steps forward and we saw Brenton Doyle end 2023 in a good place at the plate. He has picked right back up this spring, hitting .310 so far though he does have 10 strikeouts. Ezequiel Tovar is right there with him, posting a .300 average on 12 hits, 5 of them doubles.
Leading the team with 15 hits apiece are a pair of veterans who still feel like they have a chance to breakout as offensive contributors in Ryan McMahon and Brendan Rodgers.
Kris Bryant only has six hits but half of them are home runs, showing an early indication that his power stroke might make a return. Elehuris Montero also has three homers, giving us a sign that he may well be forcing himself into an every day role at the DH spot.
That would mean more Charlie Blackmon in right field and the captain of the team is hitting a cool .333 this spring.
One of their best hitters in camp has been Michael Toglia who has found himself on the fringes for about a year. Hoping still to land a roster spot, perhaps headed for Triple-A, Toglia has 12 hits in 41 at-bats (.293) and he leads the team in home runs with four and RBI with 12.
All told, the Rockies have 12 players with more than 20 at-bats who are hitting .280 or better.
- The Pitching is Worse than We Thought?
Outside of Kyle Freeland and newcomer Cal Quantrill, the pitching has been pretty bad for the Rockies so far this spring.
Dakota Hudson’s 3.60 ERA is fine, but it comes with seven walks in 10 innings pitched which will not be sustainable at Coors Field. Austin Gomber has been working on some new wrinkled but has been dinged up to the tune of a 15.26 ERA.
Batters were hitting .357 against Noah Davis who was sent to the Albuquerque squad but Ryan Feltner, who is expected to make the roster, is allowing a batting average of .304 so far.
Even Quantrill, who has a very nice looking 2.53 ERA to this point, is giving up a .295 average against.
The bullpen hasn’t fared much better with Justin Lawrence (9.82) Victor Vodnik (8.22) Nick Mears (5.68) and Tyler Kinley (4.26) each a bit shaky.
The best news on the mound has probably come from five scoreless innings pitched by prospect Carson Palmquist who has yet to pitch in AAA and is probably still at least a half year away from making his MLB debut, and that’s if he’s excellent and gets rushed.
- Jordan Beck is the Real Deal
While Top 10 draft pick Zac Veen and powerhouse Cuban-born Yanquiel Fernandez have been stealing most of the headlines, former Tennessee Volunteer Jordan Beck may have leap frogged them in terms of reasons to get hyped for the future of the Rockies outfield.
Currently ranked 81st overall on MLB Pipeline’s list of Top 100 prospects in the game, Beck has proceeded to tear the cover off the baseball since the draft.
He put up a 153 wRC+ in A-ball, then a 150 wRC+ in High-A. He slowed down a little bit at Double-A, posting just a 108 wRC+ with five homers and nine stolen bases in 50 games.
And now he has arguably been the Rockies best, or at least most consistent hitter, in Spring Training.
Making the most of his 22 at-bats, he has nine hits (.409) with two doubles, a triple, and six RBI giving him a team-leading OPS of 1.071.
He earned an extended look this March and there were even some whispers that he might challenge for a spot out of the gate thanks to his incredibly advanced feel at the plate. That didn’t come to pass but don’t be surprised if Jordan Beck starts stealing back those headlines.