At one point this offseason, this home matchup between the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs was highly anticipated by Broncos Country.
Now, it’s deeply dreaded by the same fan base.
The Chiefs have returned to juggernaut status, while the Broncos’ train has flown off the tracks and his tumbling down a ravine so deep that it seemingly has no end.
With that in mind, how can the Denver Broncos possibly hope to achieve the upset? Let’s take a look.
Russell Wilson plays up to his salary
Patrick Mahomes is probably the best quarterback in football.
He’s currently leading the league in yards, touchdowns, and QBR, and, if you’re someone who appreciates analytics, he ranks first in EPA (expected points added) per play, and is second in both DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) and success rate.
Meanwhile, Russell Wilson is performing like one of the worst quarterbacks in football.
Wilson ranks 16th in yards, 29th in touchdowns, 28th in QBR, 24th in EPA per play, 28th in DVOA and 30th in success rate.
Any metric you want to use to capture the performance of the two quarterbacks paints that picture clearly, and the eye test backs it up.
The big problem with that is that Russell Wilson is presently on a contract that figures to pay him an average salary of $49 million a year, while Patrick Mahomes is slated to make just $45 million. Now, that doesn’t mean Wilson has to be better than Mahomes, but it does mean there shouldn’t be a Grand Canyon-sized chasm between the two.
Sure, the Denver Broncos’ elite pass defense should slow Mahomes down some, but it won’t matter if Wilson once again fails to muster more than 10 points on offense. For Denver to win this game, Wilson has to look like the quarterback the Broncos are paying him to be.
Limit the Chiefs’ rushing attack
The Denver Broncos’ defense is elite, and any arguments to the contrary are a little silly, to be frank. However, one area in which the defense is lacking is their ability to defend the run.
While the Broncos rank seventh in total defensive DVOA and fourth in pass defense DVOA, they rank 17th against the run, which is extremely pedestrian. That can also be seen in EPA where Denver ranks first overall, second against the pass, and 17th against the run.
When that run defense has come through though, the Broncos have generally had success.
In games where the Denver Broncos held their opponents under 100 rushing yards, the Broncos are 2-3, with two of those losses coming in overtime, and an average score of 14-14. Considering how bad the Broncos have been this year otherwise (1-6, and losing by an average score of 19-14), that’s a modest improvement.
Even more telling though, might be the disparity in results for the Kansas City Chiefs. When the Chiefs hit 100 rushing yards in a game, they’re 7-1 on the season, with an average final score of 33-23. However, when they fail to hit that mark, they’re 2-2, with a negative point differential, one of those wins coming in overtime, and an average final score of 21-21.
If the Denver Broncos hold the Kansas City Chiefs under 100 rushing yards, they can make this a game. The problem is, the Chiefs have gone over 100 rushing yards in four of their five games since the bye week, and the one time they didn’t, they faced the Tennessee Titans, who rank first in both run defense EPA and run defense DVOA.
Pray to the deity of your choosing
This one doesn’t require much explanation.
The Kansas City Chiefs are maybe the best team in the entire NFL. The Denver Broncos are currently in possession of a top-3 pick.
The Kansas City Chiefs have won five of their last six, and 13 straight against the Denver Broncos, while the Broncos haven’t won a game on American soil since September.
If the Broncos are to win this game, it’s gonna require some help from a higher power. Now, to each their own. Pick whichever higher power best suits you, and if you haven’t already chosen one, as is the case for this columnist, simply swallow your pride for a week, pick a name out of a hat, and pray for help.
The Broncos are gonna need it.