On Sunday, the Broncos will square off against the Bills in a game where the two teams are much closer than the records would make it seem. In fact, there’s a strong argument to be made that the Broncos are the better team in this game.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at three things that must happen for the Broncos to beat the Bills.
Containing Josh Allen
The Broncos gameplan for stopping the Bills’ offense should be very similar to their Super Bowl 50 gameplan to stop the Panthers, and that means they can’t allow Josh Allen to run the ball.
Believe it or not, Allen may just be the most dangerous runner at the quarterback position outside of Lamar Jackson.
Allen’s 331 rushing yards ranks third among quarterbacks, his seven rushing touchdowns rank second among quarterbacks and is tied for sixth overall. That running ability close to the goal line is a huge part of why the Bills have the league’s third-best redzone team, scoring a touchdown on 67.86% of redzone possessions.
He’s also averaging 4.5 yards per carry, which is 19th overall and second among quarterbacks, and his 25 first downs converted on the ground is 22nd best in the league and second among quarterbacks.
It’s vital that Denver doesn’t allow Allen to roll on the ground early, coming off his best rushing performance of the season, as he won’t be able to beat the Broncos’ defense through the air. He ranks 21st in passing yards, 30th in completion percentage, and has a touchdown-to-interception ratio worse than 2:1.
John Brown vs. Chris Harris Jr.
If they do try to attack the Broncos through the air, it’s likely John Brown will be the target.
There may be no team in the league more deprived of dynamic offensive weapons than the Bills, as Brown is there lone pass-catcher that makes opposing defenses sweat.
Brown has tallied 817 yards this season leads the AFC this season with 81.7 receiving yards per game, just narrowly edging out Denver’s Courtland Sutton (80.5). He has also scored four touchdowns and converted 44 first downs for the Bills this season.
A lot of those numbers were boosted by a season-best performance against the Dolphins last week that saw Brown go for 137 yards and two touchdowns off nine receptions, which led to Buffalo posting a season-high 37 points.
To shut down Brown, the Broncos will need star cornerback Chris Harris Jr. to bounceback after turning in arguably the worst performance of his career against Stefon Diggs and the Vikings.
Last week, Harris allowed Diggs to go for 121 yards and a score on 24.2 yards per reception. The Vikings’ second-half surge to beat the Broncos was heavily fueled by Diggs’ roasting of Harris.
Can Harris shut Brown down, or is he finally over the hill?
Courtland Sutton vs. TreDavious White
Just like the Bills’ offense runs through John Brown, the Broncos offense runs through Courtland Sutton.
The second-year receiver has become a star this season, despite the rest of the offensive pieces around him struggling. Every week, he finds a way to break free and do something absolutely spectacular.
Sutton will have his work cut out for him though against a strong Buffalo secondary headlined by TreDavious White.
White has allowed a passer rating of just 60.8 when targeted, the eighth-best figure among cornerbacks with at least 200 coverage snaps. His overall grade of 72.5 ranks 13th among cornerbacks with at least 500 total snaps and his coverage grade of 72.3 ranks 12th.
That will make Sunday’s cornerback matchup the toughest Sutton has faced so far this season, outside of Casey Hayward, who he burned to the tune of 92 yards and a touchdown on four receptions.