A statistical comparison of the ’15 and ’16 Denver Broncos

Last year the Denver Broncos were Super Bowl champions. This year they’re sitting at third place in the AFC West, sitting precariously on the edge of playoff contention.

What’s changed?

It’s easy to point to the quarterback position, where Trevor Siemian has taken over for Peyton Manning, but is that the reason for the Broncos’ regression? Or is the issue on the defensive end, where guys like Malik Jackson and Danny Trevathan are sorely missed? Or is it something else?

Well, let’s dig in, shall we?

While stats can lie, they’re certainly unbiased. Nobody can deny that the Broncos are in fact giving up 4.2 yards per carry or that their defense has produced 38 sacks this season; those are facts.

So when looking at every aspect of this Denver Broncos team, we’ll compare them, statistically, to last year’s Super Bowl version and see if we can’t come up with some sort of explanation for their shortcomings.

Pass Defense

Somehow, someway, the No Fly Zone is actually better this year.

A big part of it, I think, is the fact that Aqib Talib is in the midst of the best season of his career, and that’s saying something. He’s long been one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL, but at this point it’s getting difficult to make an argument that he’s not the best cornerback in the NFL.

And the Broncos need it, because this team is relying on their secondary to carry the load more than ever.

If the No Fly Zone wasn’t the best secondary in the NFL, the Broncos wouldn’t even be sniffing a playoff birth; without Talib, Chris Harris, T.J. Ward and Darian Stewart, this defense isn’t good, let alone historic.

Pass Rush

Sacks are nice, but they don’t tell the whole story.

Yes, the Broncos’ sack numbers are down (slightly), but their quarterback hurries are up significantly, and their leading pass rusher, Von Miller, is putting a Defensive Player of the Year-caliber season.

A good pass rush creates an effective secondary, and a good secondary creates an effective pass rush. The Broncos happen to have a great pass rush and a great secondary, which makes Denver’s defense historically difficult to deal with.

Whatever’s wrong with the ’16 Denver Broncos, it certainly doesn’t stem from here.

Run Defense

We may have found the culprit …

Comparing the ’15 and ’16 Denver Broncos is like comparing identical twins. At first glance, it’s difficult to tell them apart, but if you look long enough, you’ll begin to notice a few clear differences.

In this case, that difference is the run defense.

Last season, you could make the case that the Broncos were the best run defense in the NFL — they were certainly in the top five. This year, though, things couldn’t be more different, as Denver is giving up almost 40 more yards per game on the ground.

The run defense is legitimately bad, and that’s scary, because the Broncos haven’t had anything “bad” about their defense in a long time.

Pass Offense

Well, what do you know? The Trevor Siemian-led passing attack might actually be better than the Peyton Manning-led passing attack.

Of course, I’m sure there will be plenty of you that will dispute that idea on principle alone, but the stats back it up. While Manning’s Broncos threw for more yards per game, Siemian’s Broncos threw more touchdowns, less interceptions and had essentially an equivalent DVOA from Football Outsiders.

But it’s that interception number that’s most important.

We forget, because Manning won the Super Bowl and all, that the Manning-led passing attack was extremely ineffective, too, and when coupled with the 1.44 interceptions per game (worst in the NFL and over twice as many as this year), there’s a real case to be made that Manning’s offense was more hurtful than anything Siemian has done this season.

Did Manning bring things to the game mentally that Siemian can’t even begin to compete with? Sure. But he also turned the ball over at a higher rate than anyone in the NFL.

The quarterback play is certainly a problem in Denver, but not any more so than it was last season.

Pass Protection

The chicken or the egg? The offensive line or the quarterback?

Denver’s quarterbacks have not been good over the last two years, but how much of that is the quarterback and how much of that is the offensive line’s inability to pass block?

The way I look at it, both lines are essentially just as bad as the other. This year’s version is giving up more sacks and hits, yes, but I’d argue that Manning’s ability to read the defense pre-snap and get the ball out quickly saved a few sacks last year, too.

Again, as with much of the Broncos offense, the line is clearly a problem, but it was a problem last year, too, and they won the Super Bowl.

Run Offense

Once again, the run game is coming back to bite the Denver Broncos in the you-know-what.

And while the backs deserve their fair share of blame, I can’t put it all on them. It’s difficult to get much going in the run game when you only rush the ball nine (!!) times.

I don’t care what the situation is, that’s inexcusable; at best it’s poor game planning, and at worst it’s bad coaching. Either way, it’s not good.

Gary Kubiak is supposed to be the running back whisperer; that’s his claim to fame. Terrell Davis, Mike Anderson, Arian Foster, Justin Forsett — put any running back in Kubiak’s system and they’re sure to dominate.

Instead, the team is averaging 3.6 yards per carry and can’t convert a third-and-short to save their season.

We blamed Manning for disturbing the “Kubiak system” last season, but that clearly wasn’t the problem; Kubiak has been given every opportunity to install his offense, and it clearly hasn’t worked.