How limited is the success of NFL draft picks at the quarterback position? Agent Peter Schaffer claims the success rate of QBs drafted in the first rounds of the NFL draft is only around 35 percent.
In an interview with Gil Whitetley and Mark Jackson on Mile High Sports AM 1340 | FM 104.7, Schaffer discussed the history of success rate throughout the last thirty years.
“The Raiders took quarterback first, receiver second. The receiver turned out to be a Hall of Famer, the quarterback turned out to be a bust. You know when you look at it and do an analysis, and I’ve done it, of drafted quarterbacks since 1989, you’re going to find that first-round players, there’s about a 33 percent hit ratio. I think it’s like 38 percent hit ratio,” Schaffer said.
Schaffer has analyzed players since 1989 and has seen this pattern emerge often.
“I’ve looked at every quarterback and the first round, and I’ve done analysis of every quarterback and the ratio of success. The first three rounds is anywhere from 42 percent to 33 percent, first round busts alright. A 37.8 percent success ratio of a first round quarterback. A good starter, so I’m not talking, you know when you look back at it, you know guys like Billy Joe Tolliver started 79 games. I don’t consider that a success, alright because I think his record was 15 and 32. I’m not putting him in the success rate, but then you’ve got a guy like Neil O’Donnel, 1990, okay that makes him a success. He went the same year Jeff George went, went in the same round,” Schaffer said.
Players coming out of college have to prepare a lot for the pros, and they usually start out on a bumpy road. Schaffer acknowledged this phenomenon, and believes that these young men need guidance and support in order to improve.
“Every one of these college players, and I’ll let you be negative, so I don’t think they have warts, they have things they need to improve on, there’s no doubt about it. I don’t consider them warts, but none of them are finished products that are going to come into the league, and what I call baggage claim guy. When you pick them up at the baggage claim, this guy’s going to start for you. Like Mark Jackson was coming out of Purdue, 1986, baggage claim guy. Picked him up at baggage claim, he’s your starting receiver. I don’t think Lamar Jackson is. He is so far away from being an NFL player it’s going to be tough. He really needs guidance on and off the field,” Schaffer explained.
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