Bo Nix or Josh Allen? Which quarterback would you rather have to start a playoff game?
The answer seems simple enough. Allen is set to be the NFL MVP in all likelihood, while Nix is only a rookie and still finding his footing.
But, examine the numbers and the two QBs are neck and neck in most categories.
Bo Nix, Josh Allen’s stats are really close as Broncos and Bills set to face off Sunday
Let’s play a game.
We’ll check out the stats of both quarterbacks, with their names removed. Which would you rather have?
QB A: 3,731 passing yards, 28 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, yards per attempt (7.7), 101.4 passer rating, 77.2 QBR, 14 sacks, 0 4th quarter comebacks, 531 rush yards, 12 rush TDs.
QB B: 3,775 passing yards, 29 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, yards per attempt (6.7), 97.3 passer rating, 57.2 QBR, 24 sacks, 3 4th quarter comebacks, 430 rush yards, 4 rush TDs.
OK, QB A has a bit of an advantage in a few areas. Namely, he has fewer interceptions and a lot more rushing scores.
So if you picked him, you went with…Josh Allen.
But the reason I laid these stats out is because they’re so close. *Note: Allen is No. 1 in EPA/Play (0.321), while Nix is 17th (0.090).
Bo Nix and Josh Allen aren’t necessarily on the same tier of quarterbacks. Allen is the odds-on favorite to win MVP. Many NFL experts consider him the second-best quarterback in the world to Patrick Mahomes. Meanwhile, Cody Benjamin of CBS Sports ranked Nix 12th of the 14 QBs in the playoffs.
And yet, Nix has exceeded expectations while Allen didn’t meet his. The Bills superstar had fewer yards and touchdowns passing than any of his last four seasons. Keep in mind, too, that Nix didn’t throw a single touchdown until Week 4, and tossed four interceptions at that point.
But as the season has gone on, the Broncos rookie heated up.
Despite the team going 1-2 over their last three games, Nix enjoyed three 100-plus rated contests. Over the final three weeks, he completed 79.0% of his passes, threw for 809 yards with 9 TDs and 1 INT. And his 89.7 completion percentage against the Chiefs were the highest in Denver Broncos history. Nix even won AFC Offensive Player of the Week today.
Meanwhile, Allen faded down the stretch. He sat against the Patriots in Week 18, but he had two of his worst games in Week 16 and 17 with only 336 yards on 57.1% with 3 passing TDs, 1 rushing TD. (Though, the Bills won each game.)
Ultimately, when comparing Bo Nix and Josh Allen, Allen’s the supreme quarterback. He has the playoff experience (10 games, 5-5) and the ability to completely take over a game.
But if the Broncos–the No. 1 sack team with 63–were going to go against the superstar QB, this is a best-case scenario.
Broncos or Bills receivers; which group has the edge?
One of the reasons Allen had a somewhat down year is he’s without a star receiver. Remember the Bills traded away Stefon Diggs who was their 1,000-yard receiver last season. They also cut ties with Gabe Davis.
Meanwhile, even though the Broncos receiver group is far from the deepest in the playoff field, Cortland Sutton did just enjoy a career year.
So, let’s check out which team’s top three receivers is best:
Group A: 871, 556, and 378 yards, 4, 4, and 5 TDs.
Totals: 1,805 yards, 13 touchdowns.
Group B: 1,081, 503, and 475 yards, 8, 6, and 3 TDs.
Totals: 2,059 yards, 17 touchdowns.
Which would you take?
Group B, right? That’s the Denver Broncos’ Sutton, Marvin Mims, and Devaugn Vele, a rookie. Sutton went over 1,000 yards for the second time in his career and his 8 TDs were a career-high. Mims really came on down the home stretch of the season, scoring four times in the last two weeks. And Vele completely out-played fellow Broncos rookie Troy Franklin, who went four rounds before him in this year’s NFL Draft.
The Bills’ leader was Khalil Shakir, who enjoyed his own career highs in yards and touchdowns. Next was Keon Coleman, the 6’4” rookie with similar numbers to Vele despite being taken early in the second round compared to Vele in the seventh. The anti-shoe Mack Hollins was Buffalo’s No. 3 guy, leading the team with 5 touchdowns.
Considering all the No. 1 receivers Pat Surtain–the odds-on favorite for Defensive Player of the Year–shut down this year, Shakir has his work cut out for him this Sunday.
And one more receiver to keep in mind is Amari Cooper for the Bills. He was out Week 18 with a back injury but is back at practice today.
Of course, looking at the teams’ pass-catchers wouldn’t be complete without including the tight ends. And without doing another comparison, the Bills’ group is the clear-cut winner at that position.
Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox have combined for 759 yards and 3 TDs this year. And both are valuable in the middle of the field.
However, Denver’s Adam Trautman and Nate Adkins have caught passes for 303 yards and 5 TDs. And it’s important to note they are almost exclusively used in the red zone.
The Bills were the second-highest scoring offense this year, scoring 30.9 points per game. But they aren’t this insane passing attack. In fact, they were the first team in NFL history with 30 passing and 30 rushing touchdowns in the same year. They’re a balanced offense that Denver’s defense should be able to slow down on Sunday.
Offensively, if Nix is on top of his game, the Broncos are no slouch either. And Denver clearly has the better defensive unit.
It all means the playoff duel between Bo Nix and Josh Allen could be a lot closer than the 8.5-point spread indicates.
Denver (10-7) and Buffalo (13-4) kick off at 11 a.m. MT Sunday, Jan 12.