Is Bo Nix the Offensive Rookie of the Year?
11 weeks into the NFL season, and Jayden Daniels has been heralded as the man to win the award. Especially early on in the year.
But as Daniels has cooled off, Nix is on a heater including his career-best game on Sunday versus the Falcons. The Broncos quarterback has gained a lot of ground on the Commanders’ gun-slinger as the race tightens up.
Bo Nix Offensive Rookie of the Year odds got a huge boost after his great game
Rewind one week, and Nix was a +1400 to win Offensive Rookie of the Year on FanDuel. The odds were actually longer than they were preseason, when he was +1100 to win. After his tremendous performance on Sunday versus the Falcons, Nix is now at +400 and squarely in second place.
A screenshot of FanDuel’s Rookie of the Year odds showing Jayden Daniels leading, Bo Nix second.
What changed over the last week?
First and foremost, Nix went off against the Falcons. Meanwhile, Daniels has been mediocre as of late.
Nix’s stat line against Atlanta was easily the best of his short career in basically every category. The rookie went 28-33 (84.9%) for 307 yards and four touchdowns, and a 145.0 passer rating.
Per Ryan Michael Nix’s 145.0 passer rating was the second-highest in Denver Broncos history, with only a Peyton Manning game from 2013 (146.0) being better. Keep in mind that 2013 season was when the Broncos set all the offensive records which still stand today. Of the eight top passer ratings Michael shared, only one was from John Elway (138.4) meaning Nix just had a higher-rated game than Elway ever did. That’s eye-opening.
He didn’t just look like a competent quarterback, or a rookie getting comfortable, he looked like a top-5 quarterback on Sunday. And that comes on the heels of another exemplary game against the Chiefs the week before. Early in the season, Nix forced passes into covered receivers and couldn’t find his footing in the pocket.
Now, he’s hitting open receivers, climbing the pocket to deliver dimes, and taking what the defense is giving him. When his best pass of the day hit Devaughn Vele in stride for 41 yards–in between three defenders–it was Nix’s 12th straight completion.
“The dude should be in conversations for Rookie of the Year,” Courtland Sutton said via DenverBroncos.com. “There should be no hesitation.”
Sutton went on about Nix, “I told him, ‘Man, you’re trying to win MVP. It’s not even looking like Offensive Rookie of the Year. It’s looking like MVP right now.’ It’s a testament to him. He puts the work in each and every week, and it shows with his preparation. He stays after hours to watch film [to] perfect his game. This is what you see from him. When you have games like this, it’s not a surprise, because he puts the work in fundamentally each and every week.”
Nix won Offensive Rookie of the Week after his Week 10 game against the Chiefs, and there’s little doubt he’ll win the honor again this week.
To wit, he’s the first rookie in NFL history to have a 300-yard passing day, with an 80% completion percentage and four touchdowns. Sean Payton also deserves credit for coaching up Nix and consistently putting him in position to have success.
Nix rises to the occasion and Daniels fades
Jayden Daniels started his career on fire. The first four weeks of the season, he looked unstoppable, and like he belonged in the NFL, no doubt about it.
In Week 3, he completed 91.3% of his passes, an NFL rookie record, throwing for two scores and rushing one in as well. He led the Commanders to a win over the Bengals that week, and a blowout win over Arizona the next Sunday. He was again incredibly accurate in the win over the Cardinals, completing 86.7% of his throws while he ran for 47 yards and a touchdown.
But in recent weeks, Daniels has come back to earth. In back-to-back losses to the Steelers and Eagles, Daniels has been merely mediocre.
Meanwhile, Bo Nix Offensive Rookie of the Year hype is ramping up.
While Daniels was in the lead in many basic stat categories, Nix’s recent play has helped him close the gap or even take the lead in some. Let’s quickly explore those stats below.
Daniels: 2,338 passing yards, 68.7%, 10 TDs, 3 INT, 99.6 passer rating. 482 rushing yards, 5.2 YPC, 4 TDs.
Nix: 2,275 yards, 65.5%, 14 TDs, 6 INT, 89.3 passer rating. 295 rushing yards, 4.5 YPC, 4 TDs.
Daniels also leads in advanced stats per rbsdm.com. In Adjusted EPA/Play, Daniels is sixth (0.233) while Nix is 27th (0.27). In Week 11 alone, Nix’s 13.4 CPOE (completion percentage over expected) was third-best in the NFL. Over the course of the season though, Daniels’ 3.7 CPOE is 10th, while Nix is at No. 22 (0.8). Keep in mind that Josh Allen (20) and Justin Herbert (23) were right around Nix, too.
With six games to play, Nix and the Broncos face four teams with mediocre or worse passing defenses. It’s a similar story for Daniels, who also faces two of the toughest passing defenses in the Titans and Eagles, with four easier defenses mixed in.
It should be a race to the finish for Daniels and Bo Nix for Offensive Rookie of the Year, as both teams are also currently in the playoff picture as No. 7 seeds in their respective conferences.