Bo Nix’s explosive play ability has already started to transform the Denver Broncos offense.
Even though he’s only a rookie, Nix can make plays with his big arm or quick feet, and we’re already seeing his successes at the halfway point of the year.
Denver’s on track for more explosive plays than 2023, and it could propel them to the playoffs.
Bo Nix’s explosive play ability breathes new life into the Broncos offense
Denver’s offense isn’t at the level where Sean Payton wants it, or expects it to be.
We heard it from Payton when the offensive line struggled early in the season. And then, the Pittsburgh Steelers cornerbacks laughed at Nix’s inability to do much on offense because of a limited playbook.
And yet, as this year’s Broncos offense has grown, it’s been more explosive than 2023’s version with Russell Wilson at the helm.
According to Dane Brugler, Bo Nix has been responsible for 33 explosive plays this season so far, way ahead of No. 1 pick Caleb Williams’ 20.
Last season, the Broncos managed only 53 explosive plays–categorized by 20-plus yard runs or passes–and they’re on pace to surpass that with ease. In fact, Denver this year has nine explosive runs, which matches all of last season’s numbers. Five of those explosive runs have been by Nix himself.
In the passing game, the Broncos currently have 29 explosives and are on pace for 55 (11 more than last year). All told, they are on pace for 72 explosive plays at the end of the year, a 36% increase.
Simply, explosive plays are extremely important to winning football games. Their differential is crucial, too. Denver is currently a +9 in explosive differential, meaning they’ve given up nine less than they’ve gained. Compare that to last year (-20) and they’re much better in the explosive differential department.
Then, to take it one step further, there’s Toxic Differential Plus. That formula is: Explosive Play Differential + 2(Turnover Differential) + Sack Differential = Toxic Differential Plus.
Toxic Differential Plus graphic. From windycitygridiron.com.
Through nine weeks, the Broncos are currently seventh in Toxic Differential Plus, and all of the top-10 teams are currently in the playoff picture besides the San Francisco 49ers, who are still in the hunt.
The graph visually displays how Denver has been No. 1 in sack differential, and part of that has to do with Bo Nix’s explosive play ability. He has been too quick to leave the pocket at times, yes. That’s a valid criticism. But other times he’s avoiding a sack and taking off for a big run and first down. Last year, the Broncos were a -10 in sack differential, and are +16 currently; that’s a massive turnaround.
The takeaway is this: While the Broncos aren’t scoring enough points to truly be contenders, their offense is more explosive than last year. That’s a great trend considering Nix is still a rookie and Denver has the eighth-youngest roster in the NFL. As he continues to grow and get more comfortable, the Broncos offense will likely become tougher and tougher to stop.
And it could be enough–along with the great defensive play–to get Denver into the postseason.
Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo highlights Nix’s dual-threat play
In order to get to the postseason, the Broncos are going to win at least a handful of games down the stretch.
Following that blowout at the hands of Baltimore, the Broncos face the undefeated Chiefs this week. And then a tough Falcons (6-3) team next Sunday. Of their remaining eight games, four are against plus-.500 teams, four are against sub-.500 teams.
Speaking of this week, Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo spoke highly of Nix’s explosive play ability on Thursday.
Spags on Bo Nix:
I went back and watched the first game he played in and was – I thought Sean had him doing things that sometimes you say, ‘Do you have a rookie do it in the first game that he plays?’ But yet, there he is doing it. I just think he’s gotten better every week. He…
— James Palmer (@JamesPalmerTV) November 7, 2024
The 5-3 Denver Broncos face the AFC West-leading Chiefs (8-0) in Kansas City this Sunday. If the orange and blue want to beat the last undefeated team, they’ll likely need a huge game from Nix.
That was the case last week against the Baltimore Ravens, but Nix threw an interception on his first pass and was mostly lackluster throughout the game. He helped account for four explosive plays, but many of them came when the Broncos were down multiple scores already. And none of his explosives were on the ground.
This week, he has to protect the ball, first and foremost. But after that, Bo Nix’s explosive play ability needs to shine through multiple big gains.
It won’t be easy, though. The Chiefs have allowed the fourth-lowest points per game (18.4) and are one of the best teams in the league against the run.
The good news is that Kansas City’s offense is only mediocre, at 10th in both points per game and yards. Of course, they always seemingly find a way to win, but the Chiefs are only outscoring opponents by seven points per game.
Denver vs. Kansas City kicks off at 11 a.m. MT on CBS.