Dominance has defined the Denver Broncos and the Oakland Raiders during the Peyton Manning era. In six meetings, Manning is 6-0 against the silver and black, sporting an average margin of victory of 22.83 points.
Denver has scored 30+ points in all but one game, a December matchup in Oakland that also yielded Denver’s thinnest margin of victory – 13 points.
But Jack Del Rio’s Radiers have shown improvement and no one is quite ready to toss them aside as a possible division contender. At 2-2 with a home win over Baltimore, Oakland needs a win against the Broncos and/or the Chargers next week to avoid completely falling out of the division race.
On paper, Denver should roll in this game. Oakland has the No. 31 passing defense in the league and Peyton Manning is finally starting to click in his new hybrid offense. The Raiders have a surprisingly good passing attack through three games, averaging 255.5 yards per game and allowing just five sacks of Derek Carr, but Denver has the best pass rush in the NFL and lockdown corners that have their pass defense atop the league in yards allowed.
But Oakland has proved wily, although inconsistent, through four games. The Ravens win was a huge boost, but losing a very winnable game in Chicago leads us to believe the Raiders don’t have a firm foot on the ground as they take the next step back towards competitiveness.
Denver will win this game, but it won’t be a rout like we’re used to seeing. Here’s four bold predictions for Broncos-Raiders Part 1.
No. 4 – Denver will trail at some point
As Broncos quarterback, Peyton Manning has trailed the Oakland Raiders by a total of three points for exactly five minutes and 29 seconds. That happened after Manning was picked off in the opening possession in November 9th, 2014 and Oakland converted the turnover into a field goal. Denver responded with its own field goal to tie and reclaimed the lead on their next possession.
Sunday will be the most nervous Broncos fans have been during a Raiders game since Carson Palmer had a 17-7 lead at halftime over Tim Tebow.
Denver has had a penchant for letting opponents stick around late in games this year, so it should come as no big surprise that they’ll let the Raiders do the same, relatively speaking. The Broncos won’t need a fourth-quarter comeback or late game-winning drive as they’ve needed in their previous four wins, but the Raiders will have a lead at some point, maybe as late as the third quarter.
No. 3 – Del Rio’s defense will be surprisingly aggressive
Broncos fans maligned Jack Del Rio throughout his tenure as Broncos defensive coordinator for failing to call up blitzes and for routinely allowing soft third-down conversions. At first glance, it doesn’t seem like things have changed much since he took over as head man in Oakland, as his Raiders are the No. 31 team against the pass through the first four weeks of the year.
But Del Rio made a wise choice in plucking Ken Norton Jr. from Seattle to serve as defensive coordinator. Norton has an impressive edge rush in Justin Tuck and Khalil Mack, with Aldon Smith also in the rotation, that Del Rio has slowly allowed to get more and more aggressive. With Denver’s age on one side of its o-line and inexperience on the other, Denver will have to commit extra protection for Manning.
Oakland has also been good against the run, allowing just over 90 yards per game, so Denver may be forced to rely on its receivers to win the game. That circles back to the Raiders’ rush, which will be more aggressive to limit Manning’s decision-making time and try and force errors.
No. 2 – Amari Cooper will nab a baker’s dozen, Broncos fall out as top pass defense
The Minnesota Vikings may have exposed a weakness in the Broncos pass defense. Crossing routes often befuddled Denver in the years prior to Wade Phillips’ arrival, and they played a big part in Teddy Bridgewater’s 269-yard day last Sunday.
Now, Denver was committing extra bodies to the box to stop Adrian Peterson, which they won’t have to do as much against Latavius Murray (who’s still the No. 8t running back in football), but Oakland’s line has been stellar so far this year, even against the Ravens. With more time in coverage and the due diligence they’ll have to pay to Murray and Michael Crabtree, the Broncos secondary will have to cede some catches to Cooper.
Expect him to have a big catch total, as high as 13, and put up some big yardage, north of 120, but only find the end zone once.
The Denver defense will bend but not break in this one and will get knocked off its very narrow perch as the best passing defense in the league. Tampa Bay is just 0.3 yards per game behind Denver and faces Jacksonville this weekend.
No. 1 – Peyton Manning throws for three touchdowns
As we outlined in No. 3, Jack Del Rio’s defense (by way of Ken Norton Jr.) will be surprisingly aggressive against Denver. They think that getting Manning early (as Del Rio witnessed first-hand in last year’s divisional round), will make him jumpy and thus forcing throws.
Manning will stand up to the pressure better, however, and he’ll have a better idea of what’s coming at him having spent so much time across from 1) the Raiders over the past three years, 2) a Del Rio defense in that same time (if only in practice), and 3) a Seattle-influenced defense the rest of the league is trying to emulate.
It’s clear Manning’s ability to read the play once the snap is off has diminished, but his pre-snap reads remain solid. He’ll be more confident in the pocket and he’s got more trust than ever in Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, not to mention that he’s starting to get his timing down with Owen Daniels and guys like Bennie Fowler and Jordan Norwood are prone to have sneaky games. Remember, Oakland’s pass defense is second-worst in the league.
Ronnie Hillman could have a big game yardage-wise, but the scoring will be done with Manning’s right arm.