The Denver Broncos, specifically John Elway, have a lot of work to do. The Lombardi Trophy down at Dove Valley may make take a bit of the pressure off, but if Elway wants to continue Denver’s dominant run (which we all know he does), he’ll have to work some magic this offseason.
Nine Broncos starters from the Super Bowl, including kicker Brandon McManus, will be either a restricted or unrestricted free agent this offseason, and that’s without mentioning the numerous contributors who are also set to hit the market. If Elway plans on bringing back the whole squad next year, he’s going to have to get creative, because that’s a lot of dough.
As of this moment, the Broncos are estimated to have just under $13 million in cap space to work with, according to Spotrac.com, but they should end up with even more room to work with than that; it all depends on whom they’re willing to part with.
If the Broncos were to cut bait with a few of their under-contract players in favor of signing some more of their key free agents, there’s a way in which Elway could clear a whole lot more cap space. Here are some of the top possibilities to get cut and the amount of money they would save against the cap:
Peyton Manning: $19 million
DeMarcus Ware: $10 million
Ryan Clady: $8.9 million
Louis Vasquez: $5.5 million
Emmanuel Sanders: $5 million
Britton Colquitt: $3.25 million
Now, I’m definitely not insinuating that the Broncos will cut all of these players — that would be crazy — but they will part ways with a few, at least. Manning is the most obvious, and lucrative, option, but Ware and Clady are legit possibilities, too. In both cases, you could make the argument that Elway has already drafted their replacements in Shane Ray and Ty Sambraillo, respectively.
The other option, though, is to simply restructure a few of those contracts, giving more guaranteed money across several years with a lower year-by-year cap hit; Clady has already said he’d be open to the possibility.
Whatever Denver decides to do, the bottom line is that they should enter free agency with significantly more cap space than just $13 million. In fact, if they were to part ways with Manning, Ware and Clady, they could be looking at roughly $50 million.
And with that in mind, let’s take a quick look at some of the Broncos’ top targets. I can’t speak for the Broncos, but here’s how I see their market playing out:
Von Miller
Overview:
Here’s the rundown: Von Miller has the Denver Broncos over a barrel. The Broncos know they need Von, Von knows they need Von, the whole world knows they need Von. And you know what? Good for him.
At some point, whether it’s this offseason or next, Von Miller will become the highest-paid defensive player in NFL history, and there’s no sense believing anything else. It’s only a matter of time.
Plan Of Action:
Step 1: Slap the franchise tag on Von Miller. Step 2: Give Von Miller all the moneys.
Price Range: $13-14 million (franchise tag); $20 million/year
Technically, Von Miller is an outside linebacker. Fundamentally, he’s a pass rushing defensive end. That could cause an issue when determine the franchise tag cost, because the price for defensive ends is higher than those of outside linebackers. Either way, it’ll clock in around this range, if not a bit higher.
Long-term, the Broncos are looking at over $20 million a year. On average, Justin Houston is getting nearly $17 million and Ndamukong Suh is getting just over $19 million; Von will be looking for more than both.
Evan Mathis
Overview:
When discussing the Broncos’ top free agents, Evan Mathis normally get’s left out of the conversation. Instead, all the focus has been on Brock Osweiler and the defensive side of the ball.
But Mathis isn’t chopped liver.
On a bad offensive line, Mathis was far and away the Broncos’ best blocker, particularly in the run game, and losing him for next season would definitely hurt. Even if he was more of a hired killer for the season, he’s still a solid, solid guard in the NFL.
Plan Of Action:
Really, it all comes down to cost. With so many other guys up for auction, Mathis is the least of the Broncos’ concerns. Entering his mid-thirties, there’s not much upside, either.
That said, if Mathis really wants to play for a contender again, maybe he takes a discount to comeback to Denver.
Price Range: $5 million/year
At $5 million, Mathis would be getting paid like a top-15 guard in the NFL; that’s asking an awful lot.
Maybe Mathis is still a top-15 guard, but I’m not so sure the Broncos can afford that, especially if they’re still paying Louis Vasquez $6.75 million (6th-most amongst all guards) next season.
Malik Jackson
Overview:
Malik Jackson is quickly becoming a bonafide superstar, and his Super Bowl performance only accelerated his rise. If the Denver Broncos don’t pay him, somebody else will — a lot.
Plan Of Action:
There’s no question that the Broncos want (probably need) Jackson back in Denver. They’ve developed him into the player he is, and I’m sure they want to reap the benefits, even if they’re expensive.
Jackson, like Miller and Chris Harris and T.J. Ward, turns this Denver defense from a great unit to a historic one.
Unfortunately, while Derek Wolfe may have taken a bit of a discount to stay in Denver, I’m not so sure Jackson will, too.
Price Range: $7 million/year
This is an absolute best-case scenario. Derek Wolfe signed on to make $6.8 million in 2016, but my guess is that Jackson is looking to make Michael Bennett-like money ($7 million in 2016). And even then, I wouldn’t be surprised if Jackson holds out for $8-plus million a year; he’ll get it from somebody.
Brock Osweiler
Overview:
The big man on campus.
This is a very interesting situation, for both parties. I believe both the Broncos and Brock Osweiler want to find a way to keep him in Denver, but any contract negotiations could be thrown for a loop if another team jumps in.
It should play to the Broncos’ advantage that Osweiler didn’t start during the playoffs, but if just one franchise believes they saw enough out of No. 17 to say he’s their franchise quarterback of the future, the price could skyrocket.
Plan Of Action:
I think it’s pretty simple. Sign Brock to a one-year deal and let him prove himself. It gives Osweiler the opportunity to succeed and look good behind the best defense in football, possibly make another deep playoff run, and show to the world that he’s no fluke. And it allows the Broncos to head another direction if everything goes wrong.
Brock has to know that the best place for him to succeed is in Denver. Not only does he have that defense making things easier for him, but he he’ll be working with a staff and teammates that he knows; he’ll be comfortable. If he decides to bolt for Cleveland or LA, there’s a much larger opportunity for failure, even if it’s not directly his fault.
Price Range: $11 million/year
At about $11 million, Osweiler will be roughly the 20th highest paid quarterback in the NFL, placing him right around Ryan Tannehill. That makes sense to me.
Could the Broncos get him for less? Maybe. But only if the market dries up immediately for free agent quarterbacks, and I’m not so sure the quarterback market has ever been parched, let alone dried up.
Danny Trevathan
Overview:
The two most underrated players on the Denver Broncos defense are probably inside linebackers Danny Trevathan and Brandon Marshall, and unfortunately, it’s going to be very difficult to bring them both back next season.
The fact that Trevathan is unrestricted, whereas Marshall is restricted, makes him the most likely to leave. Plus, he’s already admitted he’ll talk to John Fox and Chicago this offseason.
Plan Of Action:
It really all depends on Brandon Marshall. Because Marshall is restricted, the Broncos will have the opportunity to match any offers he receives. If he doesn’t receive any, they should be able to bring him back at a relatively cheap price. Given that he’s a Super Bowl champion and on one of the best defenses in NFL history, though, that doesn’t seem likely.
Elway will probably let Trevathan shop around and test the market, and if he really wants to return to Denver, he’ll talk to the Broncos last. Hopefully that’ll give them enough time to work out deals with Miller, Jackson and Osweiler, and if things come together, maybe he’ll be back.
I wouldn’t count on it, though …
Price Range: $7 million/year
I think Trevathan may be able to get top-10 inside linebacker money, but not much more than that. While he’s very good, and he’s been a part of a historic defense, his name just doesn’t ring the same way Luke Kuechly‘s or Clay Matthews‘ do.
Overview:
To put things in perspective, if the Broncos were to re-sign all those players above at those predicted numbers, it would cost $50 million, which is a number, as I said at the top, that the Broncos could theoretically open up.
But that’s without even discussing guys like Brandon Marshall, C.J. Anderson, Ronnie Hillman, David Bruton, Ryan Harris and more. Plus, you know Elway is going to be on the lookout for an offensive lineman or two in free agency.
The bottom line is that it’s going to be tough, and it’s going to take an awful lot of accounting magic to fit these guys into the books next season. That, or a whole lot of hometown discounts.