The Denver Broncos are in quarterback purgatory, but could Drake Maye be the answer to their problems?
Most prognosticators of the NFL Draft believe Maye will go in the top 10, or even top 5 picks. But with Denver selecting at No. 12 overall, they’d be missing out.
Unless, of course, they made a massive trade up, which is what Pro Football Focus recently predicted they’ll do.
Broncos trade up to No. 2 to select Drake Maye
PFF has been all-in on the Broncos taking a quarterback in the first round.
Two weeks ago, they guessed that Denver would take Oregon QB Bo Nix at No. 12 overall. As discussed in the piece, Nix is a solid quarterback with the athleticism to get out of the pocket and throw well off-platform. And at 23 years old, he has a lot of experience as he leaves college.
But, depending on the source, many believe Nix is among the second-tier quarterbacks available, along with Michael Penix Jr. A few weeks ago, J.J. McCarthy might be in that group, too, but Ben Albright says McCarthy is a top-10 pick.
And though recently Lance Zierlein said the Broncos would draft McCarthy at 12, he may not fall that far.
So, what if the Broncos actually trade up?
That’s what PFF is proposing now, in their post-Super Bowl mock draft.
- Commanders receive: A 2024 first-round pick (No. 12), a 2025 first-round pick, a 2025 second-round pick and a 2026 first-round pick.
- Broncos receive: A 2024 first-round pick (No. 2).
I believe the market for quarterbacks in this draft will be red hot, and we’ll see that solidify after free agency.
Teams such as the Falcons, Raiders, Broncos and Vikings will all be looking to move up for a quarterback. Here, I have an aggressive Sean Payton moving from No. 12 to No. 2 by giving up the same compensation package the 49ers offered to move up from No. 12 to No. 3 for Trey Lance in 2021.
That is an incredible amount to trade up to No. 2, sending away 3 first-round picks and a second-rounder. The Broncos have already seen lately what happens when you trade away first-round picks. They sent 2022 and 2023’s first-rounders to Seattle, leaving them with no pick in the top round last year.
Considering Denver needs to build from the ground-up, and at many positions, selling away all that capital would be incredibly risky.
But, it makes sense if Sean Payton loves Drake Maye.
Maye is many analysts’ No. 2 quarterback behind Caleb Williams
Williams is going No. 1 overall. That much is basically a done deal.
The Chicago Bears wanted Justin Fields to work out, but it doesn’t look like he will for them. So, Williams is next up in the Windy City.
Behind Williams on many sites’ big boards—CBS, PFF, NFL.com, FOX Sports, and more—Maye is the second-best QB available in a QB-rich draft. However, Mel Kiper is the outlier and has Jayden Daniels ahead of Maye now.
Why are so many analysts so high on Maye?
To start off, he’s got great, prototypical size at 6’4″ and 230 pounds. His arm strength is top-notch, and he possesses solid accuracy at all depths; short, medium, and the deep ball. He’s not as athletic as most of the other top-six quarterbacks, but he’s athletic enough to make plays with his legs.
The downsides to Maye’s game are a bit of a red flag if you’re spending 3 first-round picks on him. He’s only played in 26 games at the college level and was only so-so last year after an incredible 2022 season with North Carolina. And while his arm strength is off-the-charts good, he uses it to force passes into coverage or go for a deep shot instead of dropping it off short. There are also some questions about his accuracy when it concerns crossing routes in the middle of the field, where he’s been behind or short of intended receivers.
Ultimately, any rookie quarterback is going to be something of a gamble. It continues to be the most difficult position to predict future success at in the sport. That’s why Denver hasn’t been able to draft a franchise quarterback, well, ever. Remember, they traded for John Elway after he was taken by the Baltimore Colts.
It’s also why Mitch Trubisky went No. 2 overall in the 2017 NFL Draft and Patrick Mahomes was taken at 10.
If Denver does stay at 12, there’s a high likelihood that Williams, Maye, and Daniels are all gone. Possibly McCarthy, too. That leaves them with Penix and Nix, who could be Day 2 guys. Meaning taking them at 12 would be a possibly massive reach.
Payton talked about evaluating rookie quarterbacks recently on Up & Adams in the lead up to the Super Bowl, wondering aloud, “Are we in love with any of them?”
“You are looking to fall in love with a quarterback?”
“Yeah”@seanpayton on Russell Wilson and the future of the Broncos QB position@heykayadams pic.twitter.com/7BSYBiLsfy
— Up & Adams (@UpAndAdamsShow) February 9, 2024
He also said, “If we like one of these guys a lot, then I’m unconcerned with where people think we should draft them.” That seems to mean the Broncos will possibly reach if they do love a guy like, say, Nix.