The stage is set for an NFL Wild Card showdown as the Denver Broncos face off against the Buffalo Bills this Sunday at Highmark Stadium. This matchup promises to be a clash of contrasting narratives and styles, with the Broncos set as +8.5 underdogs and a total of 46.5 points.
Check out the best prop bet picks, trends, and hit rates for both teams.
Broncos – Bills Props Best Bets
We did some serious homework to find the best player props streaks for the Broncos and Bills heading into Sunday’s Wildcard match-up.
(🔥Top player props streaks hit rates)
J. Cook vs DEN
Over 0.5 Anytime TD (−135)
Hit in 4 of his last 4 games (100%)
J. McLaughlin @ BUF
Over 33.5 Rush Yds (−114)
Hit in 2 of his last 2 games (100%)
C. Sutton @ BUF
Over 0.5 Anytime TD (+170)
Hit in 2 of his last 2 games (100%)
B. Nix @ BUF
Over 1.5 Pass TD (+154)
Hit in 4 of his last 4 games (100%)
B. Nix @ BUF
Over 22.5 Pass Completions (−135)
Hit in 3 of his last 3 games (100%)
B. Nix @ BUF
Over 20.5 Rush Yds (−114)
Hit in 4 of his last 4 games (100%)
M. Mims @ BUF
Over 0.5 Anytime TD (+280)
Hit in 2 of his last 2 games (100%)
J. Allen vs DEN
Over 0.5 Anytime TD (−135)
Hit in 6 of his last 7 games (86%)
J. Allen vs DEN
Over 0.5 Anytime TD (−135)
Hit in 3 of his last 4 home games (75%)
J. Allen vs DEN
Over 1.5 Pass TD (+100)
Hit in 4 of his last 5 games (80%)
J. Allen vs DEN
Over 1.5 Pass TD (+100)
Hit in 6 of his last 8 home games (75%)
C. Sutton @ BUF
Over 0.5 Anytime TD (+170)
Hit in 3 of his last 4 away games (75%)
B. Nix @ BUF
Over 223.5 Pass Yds (−114)
Hit in 5 of his last 7 games (71%)
D. Kincaid vs DEN
Over 31.5 Rec Yds (−114)
Hit in 12 of his last 17 games (71%)
D. Kincaid vs DEN
Over 31.5 Rec Yds (−114)
Hit in 9 of his last 13 home games (69%)
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Top Prop Bet Hit Rate Trends Last 5 and 10 Games
The table below covers a set of player prop bets (e.g., “Over 1.5 Passing TDs,” “Over 14.5 Longest Reception”) along with each prop’s line, the corresponding odds, and two “hit rates” for how often the prop has succeeded over the players’ last 5 games (L5) and last 10 games (L10). For example, Bo Nix’s Over 1.5 Passing TDs line is 1.5, with posted odds near +140/+116, and an 80% success rate both over his last 5 and last 10 contests. We recommend using these trends to find winners on the Underdog and Sleeper Fantasy apps this weekend.
| Proposition | Line | Odds | L5 | L10 |
| Bo Nix – Over 1.5 Passing TDs | 1.5 | +140 / +116 | 80% | 80% |
| Bo Nix – Over 34.5 Longest Pass Cmp | 34.5 | -115 / -120 | 80% | 70% |
| Devaughn Vele – Over 14.5 Longest Reception | 14.5 | -105 / -120 | 80% | 70% |
| Keon Coleman – Over 17.5 Longest Reception | 17.5 | -120 / -120 | 60% | 70% |
| Josh Allen – Over 36.5 Longest Pass Cmp | 36.5 | -115 / -120 | 60% | 60% |
| Marvin Mims Jr. – Over 19.5 Longest Reception | 19.5 | -110 / -120 | 80% | 60% |
| Dawson Knox – Over 9.5 Longest Reception | 9.5 | -110 / -120 | 60% | 60% |
| Courtland Sutton – Over 22.5 Longest Reception | 22.5 | -115 / -120 | 40% | 60% |
| Josh Allen – Over 1.5 Passing TDs | 1.5 | -105 / -120 | 60% | 60% |
| Jaleel McLaughlin – Over 32.5 Rushing Yards | 32.5 | -119 / -120 | 80% | 80% |
| Jaleel McLaughlin – Over 30.5 Rushing Yards | 30.5 | -120 / -120 | 80% | 80% |
| Adam Trautman – Over 4.5 Longest Reception | 4.5 | -119 / -120 | 60% | 50% |
| James Cook – Over 8.5 Longest Reception | 8.5 | -115 / -120 | 40% | 50% |
| Ray Davis – Over 2.5 Longest Reception | 2.5 | -115 / -120 | 80% | 60% |
| Jaleel McLaughlin – Over 11.5 Longest Rush | 11.5 | -120 / -120 | 80% | 80% |
📈Most Bet Player Props – Broncos vs. Bills
🔥1st TD Scorer
James Cook (+500)
Josh Allen (+500)
Dawson Knox (+3000)
Courtland Sutton (+1400)
Marvin Mims (+2000)🔥Anytime TD Scorer
James Cook (‑130)
Josh Allen (‑125)
Courtland Sutton (+145)
Marvin Mims (+255)
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Our Take on Broncos vs. Bills
The Denver Broncos, under the guidance of head coach Sean Payton, have made a remarkable turnaround. With rookie quarterback Bo Nix at the helm, they’ve managed to secure a playoff spot for the first time since their Super Bowl 50 victory in 2015. Nix has shown poise beyond his years, leading the Broncos to a strong finish in the regular season, highlighted by a decisive 38-0 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs. Denver’s defense, ranked among the league’s best, will be a key factor in this game, having allowed the fewest yards per play and excelling in limiting opponents’ scoring opportunities. The Broncos’ defensive line, led by pass rushers like Zach Allen, could pose significant challenges to the Bills’ offensive line, known to have some vulnerabilities in pass protection.
On the other side, the Buffalo Bills have been a force to reckon with at home, clinching the No. 2 seed in the AFC with an impressive 13-4 record. Josh Allen, potentially the NFL’s MVP this season, has been in stellar form, leading a balanced offensive attack that has seen the Bills score 30 or more touchdowns both on the ground and through the air. Allen’s ability to both pass and run adds a dual threat that has kept defenses guessing all season. However, the Bills’ defense has shown some inconsistency, particularly against the run, which could be exploited by Denver’s resilient offensive line and running backs like Javonte Williams.
As we look forward to this Wild Card game, key elements to watch include how Denver’s defense copes with Allen’s dynamic playmaking, the impact of the Bills’ home crowd, and whether the Broncos can sustain their “turnaround” season momentum.