Tonight, it’s Broncos vs. Browns on Monday Night Football.
The Denver Broncos (7-5) look to secure a home win and stay in the NFL playoff picture, while the Cleveland Browns (3-8) want to play spoiler again.
Last week, the Browns beat a playoff team in the Pittsburgh Steelers. And their smothering defense is a major reason why.
Broncos vs. Browns boils down to pass blocking vs. pass rush
Myles Garrett is arguably the best defensive player in the NFL.
Through 11 games, Garrett has racked up 10 sacks, which puts him tied for third behind Cincinnati’s Trey Hendrickson (11.5 sacks). Against the Steelers, Garrett was a man possessed; he totaled a season-high three sacks against Russell Wilson.
Broncos fans will remember the last two seasons that Wilson holds the ball too long too often. That delay in processing can result in the drive-killing sacks.
But more than that, Garrett is an absolute beast on the edge.
When exploring ESPN’s pass rush win rate, Garrett is tied for fourth on the edge, winning 23% of his snaps. That’s an even more incredible number when considering he’s double-teamed an NFL-high 29% of the time.
That means right tackle Mike McGlinchey is going to have his hands full. And it seems likely the Broncos will use a tight end or running back to help chip on Garrett, too.
The good news is that McGlinchey has been rock-solid at right tackle this year for Denver. He wins a seventh-best 94% of pass blocking opportunities this year. McGlinchey has also received a lot of help, with a double-team partner on 41% of snaps.
In fact, the Broncos offensive line is the No. 1 against the pass rush per ESPN’s PRWR rankings. All five starters have won at least 93% of their pass blocking snaps, with center Luke Wattenberg the best (98%).
As a team, the Broncos win 74% of pass blocking snaps, which is first. Meanwhile, Cleveland is fourth-best at rushing the passer, winning 46% of the time.
Also, the Browns are No. 1 in run stop win rate (35%), so Denver must find success in the passing game to win.
Denver’s O-line must give time for Bo to throw
After a rough start to his NFL career, Bo Nix is on fire lately.
Over his last five games, he’s thrown for 11 touchdowns and one interception, and ran another score in as well. Nix also averaged 260.4 passing yards on 69.7% completions over that span, and the Broncos went 3-2.
Of note, during his worst game of that span–the loss to the Ravens–Nix was sacked four times. He was sacked twice or fewer times in every other game. That’s why it’s again key to this Broncos vs. Browns matchup to give Bo time to throw.
Earlier in the season, Nix had happy feet, running away from trouble that wasn’t even there. He’s settled in as the season has gone on, partially because he’s being protected well.
But part of that is Nix simply getting more comfortable at the NFL level. He’s processing at an elite level, moving through progressions and making the right decisions more times than not. Nix is taking what the defense is giving him, while also taking shots when possible.
A majority of the Broncos’ explosive plays this year have been thanks to Nix. He has five of the team’s nine explosive runs, and he’s completed all the explosive pass plays, including 13 to Courtland Sutton.
If Nix has time to throw, he should be able to find some open receivers in the Browns secondary. Although, their safety cheat technique does limit deep crossing routes. It also helps in the run game because the single high safety reads run/pass at the snap and crashes the line.
In this Broncos vs. Browns Monday Night Football game, Nix’s passing is all the more crucial because Denver is basically one-dimensional lately.
The Broncos have run the ball poorly all year. And in the last three games, they’ve averaged only 82 rush yards per contest. With the Browns being best in run stop win rate, both teams know Nix will have to pass a lot tonight.
If Nix stays in his bag, he’ll spread the ball out to many different receivers, check down when necessary, and take off for yards on the ground at times. If he’s hurried by Garrett and Co. Nix’s accuracy will suffer and the Broncos will be in for a tough fight against gritty Cleveland.
Broncos vs. Browns kicks off at 6:15 p.m. MT on ESPN.