BOULDER — It’s separation time for Deion “Coach Prime” Sanders’ Colorado Buffaloes.
The Buffs, 5-2 overall and 3-1 in the Big 12, play host to Cincinnati (5-2, 3-1) on Saturday in a key conference matchup at Folsom Field (8:15 p.m., ESPN).
The winner will be no worse than one game out of the Big 12 lead and will remain well within reach of a conference championship game berth. The loser will drop behind the tightly grouped pack near the top with just four games left to play.
Both the Buffs and Bearcats are among the surprise teams in the league — at least to those outside their immediate sphere. Colorado was picked 11th in the preseason media poll; Cincinnati was tabbed to finish 13th.
But both have played well and put themselves in contention for a league title.
The Buffs have reached this point with a potent offense that averages 31 points per game and a much-improved, opportunistic defense that is limiting opponents to less than 22 points per game.
Cincinnati has followed a similar trajectory with an offense that is averaging 30 points per game and a defense giving up less than 20.
But while Colorado has leaned heavily on its passing game for most of its production — CU is averaging 324 yards per game in the air and just 75 on the ground — the Bearcats have utilized a balanced attack, averaging 279 yards per game in the air and 172 on the ground.
A victory would give the Buffs their most wins in a season since 2016 and also make them bowl eligible. Our Fast Five keys to reaching those goals:
1. Continue the improved rushing attack. Colorado ran for a season-high 148 yards in last weekend’s 34-7 win at Arizona. CU was particularly effective running the ball on first down, averaging 5.1 yards per carry in those situations, which kept the Buffs ahead of the sticks and put them in excellent second- and third-down situations.
They need to match that effort against the Bearcats. Cincinnati has been solid against the pass but has given up nearly 170 yards per game on the ground. If the Buffs can establish a run game early, it will prevent the Bearcats from devoting extra defenders to stopping the pass — and open the door for Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders and his excellent fleet of wide receivers.
2. Limit big plays from the Bearcats’ offense. Cincinnati has been prolific in the explosive play area this year, with 14 plays of 40 yards or more and 20 of 30 or more.
While the Buffs haven’t given up an inordinate amount of big plays, they have been susceptible at critical moments. Kansas State hit CU with gains of 34 and 50 yards for the winning touchdown earlier this season and Baylor hit the Buffs with four scoring plays of 24 yards or longer.
Most dangerous for Cincinnati has been running back Evan Pryor, who has three touchdown runs of 50 yards or longer. Meanwhile, six different UC receivers have at least one catch for 38 yards or more.
The Buffs must make the Bearcats earn their yards and not give them huge chunks at once.
3. Work the Cincinnati secondary. The Bearcats are giving up just 229 yards per game in the air, but they did give up 426 yards to Texas Tech in a 44-41 loss. Meanwhile, Cincinnati’s pass rush has by no means been overwhelming, with just 17 sacks this season — none against Texas Tech — and the Bearcats also have just three interceptions.
That’s a combination the Buffs can exploit if they give Sanders a safe pocket. Cincinnati hasn’t seen a team with the likes of Travis Hunter, LaJohntay Wester, Jimmy Horn Jr. and company and if Sanders gets some time, it could mean a big day for the Buffs’ receivers.
4. Force the Bearcats to throw. Cincy’s bread-and-butter running back, Corey Kiner, has run for 598 yards and is averaging 5.6 yards per carry. The Buffs have to bottle Kiner up on first and second down and push the Bearcats into some third-and-long situations.
UC quarterback Brendan Sorsby isn’t prone to mistakes — just four interceptions this season — and he can run, with six rushing touchdowns to his credit.
But if the Buffs can put Sorsby into third-and-long situations, they can unleash a pass rush that has 16 sacks in the last three games and 21 for the season (best in the Big 12). Three Buffs — Samuel Okunlola, BJ Green IIand Taje McCoy — have three sacks each. A couple of those plays would bring a sold-out Folsom Field crowd to a crescendo.
5. Continue to win third-down and red zone situations. OK, this is technically two areas but the Buffs have been excellent in both.
The Buffs have scored on 23 of 28 trips inside the 20 this year, including 18 touchdowns. Defensively, they have allowed just 17 scores in 25 red zone situations, with just 13 touchdowns.
As for third down conversions, Colorado is a healthy 42-for-95 (45 percent) while holding opponents to just 34 percent (34-for-99).
Those are big, momentum-shifting moments that can make the difference in a close game. With the Buffs’ defense giving up barely six points per game in the second half this year, just a couple of third-down stops — or a defensive stop in the red zone — could be the difference down the stretch.
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Story by Neill Woelk, Contributing Editor for CUBuffs.com. Content courtesy of the University of Colorado at Boulder.