Case Keenum wasn’t nearly as good for the Denver Broncos in 2018 as he was in 2017 with the Minnesota Vikings.
But, can he be?
The simple answer is: Maybe, but only if the Broncos are willing to call a lot more play-action passes in 2019.
Per Pro Football Focus, Keenum was the NFL’s fourth-best play-action passer with a grade of 90.6 when the Broncos called those plays:
Highest play-action passing grades among QBs this season
1. Philip Rivers – 96.1
2. Tom Brady – 91.7
3. Andrew Luck – 91.2
4. Case Keenum – 90.6
5. Jared Goff – 90.2#BroncosCountry pic.twitter.com/QG2S7xL8y0— PFF DEN Broncos (@PFF_Broncos) January 25, 2019
Rich Scangarello — as we wrote about here — is part of the Mike Shanahan coaching tree, and we know what Shanahan-style offenses are built off of. The Broncos in 2019 will almost certainly employ a more zone-blocking oriented run game and, if Scangarello is smart, a lot more play-action passes than we saw in 2018.
Play-action benefits any quarterback, it’s why McVay uses it with Jared Goff with the most frequency in the NFL the last two seasons; because it keeps defenses off guard. Deception is the name of the game of the Shanahan-style offense, too, so Broncos fans can expect to see more of it this year, especially with Keenum under center.
Rewind to 2017 and Keenum’s Vikings called the second-most play-action passes in the NFL to only McVay and the Los Angeles Rams. That year with the Vikings, Keenum’s passer rating jumped 29.7 points when in play-action compared to regular plays, which is why they ran them so often. It was also Keenum’s best year as a quarterback by far.
But, it was as if Bill Musgrave didn’t see those numbers in 2018. Five weeks into the season, Keenum was struggling and not surprisingly, the Broncos called a fifth-lowest amount of play-action passes (16 percent). As the season progressed, Keenum played better overall and the Broncos called more play-actions, too, finishing the year at 25 percent.
Play-action helps because it draws in linebackers and, at times safeties, which leaves receivers able to take advantage and find open space. That makes the quarterback’s job a lot easier.
Of course, having the dangerous Phillip Lindsay in the backfield only helps draw defenders closer to the line of scrimmage even more.
What it all means is that, if Broncos fans are lucky, their offense will be much improved in 2019. Scangarello will help to revolutionize things, and if he’s smart like the best offensive coordinators, he’ll adapt the play calling to help bring the best out of Keenum. Because, without a doubt, Keenum will be the starter in 2019.