With the Denver Nuggets up 3-0 over the Los Angeles Lakers heading into Game 4 tonight, the expectation is that, at some point, the Nuggets will wrap up the series and move onto the next round. According to ESPN’s broadcast, teams to go up 3-0 in a playoff series are 151-0 in terms of advancing, no matter how long the series takes. If the Nuggets become the first NBA team to go home after winning the first three games, that would be horrible, but also tremendous content.
Assuming Denver does in fact make it to the second round, now seems like a decent time to check in on other playoff series around the Western Conference and NBA at large. Are other contenders doing their jobs too?
Let’s dive into it:
Western Conference
(1) Oklahoma City Thunder lead 2-0 over (8) New Orleans Pelicans
After one game, this series looked like it might be more contested than it appears to be. The Pelicans had several opportunities late In Game 1 to steal a win, but poor offensive execution and a clutch basket from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander helped the Thunder settle down and ultimately win. Then in Game 2, the Thunder won by over 30 points, perhaps taking out some frustration over the Game 1 performance and executing much better.
Pelicans big wing Brandon Ingram is struggling to separate from elite defender Luguentz Dort after two games. When Dort is guarding Ingram, the Pelicans wing is shooting just 5-of-14 from the field and settling for highly contested shots. Whenever he gets a switch onto other defenders, it’s not much better.
With Zion Williamson sidelined due to injury, the Pelicans are once again in a difficult place. They play Game 3 at home today and need to win that one desperately. There’s no coming back from down 3-0.
(3) Minnesota Timberwolves lead 3-0 over (6) Phoenix Suns
This is one of the more surprising results so far. The Suns swept the Timberwolves in the regular season, including in Game 82 that led to this matchup even happening in the first place. The Suns looked like they would be dangerous.
Then, suddenly, they weren’t. Anthony Edwards is the best player on the floor, and his biggest competition might be center Rudy Gobert, who’s dominating the interior against the Suns perimeter attack. Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, and Bradley Beal have been underwhelming in this series, and unsurprisingly, there’s not a lot of help coming from the depth in the Suns rotation.
Expect the T’Wolves to wrap this series up with haste and set up a second round showdown with the defending champion Denver Nuggets.
(5) Dallas Mavericks lead 2-1 over (4) Los Angeles Clippers
This is also a series that doesn’t have a surprising result, given the way these two teams finished the regular season. The Mavericks traded for PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford to bolster their frontcourt rotation and improve the athleticism of the overall team. They played like an elite team post All-Star Break, while the Clippers…did not. Kawhi Leonard struggled to stay on the floor at the end of the year, while James Harden, Paul George, and Russell Westbrook certainly weren’t playing their best basketball either.
Now, Leonard is clearly hampered by injury in the playoffs, and the Clippers simply look old and slow. Leonard is averaging 12.0 points per game and looks like a shell of himself. George doesn’t look much better with 17.0 points per game on 40% from the field. Luka Doncic hasn’t shot the ball well on the other side, but there’s no doubt he’s the best player any time he steps on the floor. The biggest difference so far is that Kyrie Irving is clearly the second best player.
This series doesn’t just have upset potential. It might end quickly.
Eastern Conference
(1) Boston Celtics tied 1-1 with (8) Miami Heat
Perhaps the most surprising result of the first week of playoff action was Game 2 between these two teams. The Heat defeated the Celtics on the road without Jimmy Butler by shooting an absolutely ridiculous 23-of-43 from three-point range. That’s the way to upset any favorite in the modern NBA, but it was shocking to see the Celtics lose in that manner.
These two teams play later today, and I still expect the Celtics to win the next three games in a row…and yet, there’s something about the Heat that’s mystical in nature. They find a way to win no matter the circumstances, and if they’re able to take another game while in Miami, there’s no telling what could happen moving forward. Butler probably won’t be back in time, but the longer the series goes, the door opens for him to make a triumphant return. That would strike some fear into Boston’s heart.
(2) New York Knicks lead 2-1 over (7) Philadelphia 76ers
This is probably the most contested series so far. The Sixers had chances to win the first two matchups and came up short, partly of their own volition, partly because the Knicks just refused to give in. The Sixers held serve in Game 3 though, with Joel Embiid dropping 50 points (along with some serious extracurricular activities). Embiid is dealing with something called Bell’s Palsy that makes the left side of his face droop, on top of the knee injury he’s fighting through. He’s the best player in the series, but both Jalen Brunson and Tyrese Maxey have their own claims to that spot.
Brunson figured some stuff out in Game 3 after struggling in the first two games. If he plays well in Game 4 and Embiid doesn’t have 50 points, then the Knicks could steal a win. Embiid and Maxey likely have other ideas, and Maxey has found a way to make a consistent impact throughout. Game 4 on Sunday promises to be a big time battle.
(6) Indiana Pacers lead 2-1 over (3) Milwaukee Bucks
Even before the injuries, this series promised to be an interesting one due to conflicting styles of play. The Pacers are relatively young. The Bucks are old. The Pacers space the floor, play fast, and don’t play a ton of defense. The Bucks…don’t play a ton of defense either, but they earn their points at the free throw line.
Then, Giannis Antetokounmpo missed the first three games. The Pacers won Game 3 in overtime despite heroics from Khris Middleton. Damian Lillard struggled in Game 3, and apparently, his status for Game 4 is now in doubt due to a strained achilles.
Milwaukee Bucks star Damian Lillard has suffered a strained Achilles, is in a walking boot and there is serious doubt over his availability for Game 4 vs. Pacers on Sunday, sources tell @TheAthletic @Stadium. pic.twitter.com/jQUJpovsSM
— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) April 27, 2024
(4) Cleveland Cavaliers lead 2-1 over (5) Orlando Magic
Finally, the Cavaliers are leading the Magic in what can only be described as the NBA super fan’s series. The teams are currently playing Game 4 at the time of publishing, and that will obviously have a major impact on where this series stands. If the Cavaliers steal Game 4 on the road, it would be a surprise if the Magic recover. If the Magic can defend their homecourt, the series becomes a Best-of-3 beginning in Cleveland for Game 5.
The Magic are getting valuable experience for an extremely young core that is flawed but still impressive around Paolo Banchero. The Cavaliers have higher expectations. If they were to lose this series, major changes would be made, likely beginning with a Donovan Mitchell trade demand.