The Kansas City Chiefs just won the AFC West for the ninth straight time. Only the New England Patriots’ run of 11 straight AFC East titles is a longer streak in NFL history.
But there’s good news for Denver Broncos fans.
These aren’t your big brother’s Chiefs. They’ve fallen off–as much as a 12-1 team can fall off–while the Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers have come up.
Chiefs win AFC West with doink-in field goal against Chargers
Last night, the Chiefs and Chargers went toe-to-toe in a tough, defensive-led battle. LA couldn’t do much on offense in the first half, but their defense relentlessly hounded Patrick Mahomes. Kansas City had to settle for two field goals early on.
Late in the first half, the Chiefs finally got going offensively. Mahomes connected with DeAndre Hopkins for their only touchdown of the game. At 13-0, some thought the game was over.
But LA surged back in the second half, scoring touchdowns on back-to-back drives to take the 14-13 lead late in the third quarter.
The Chiefs had to settle for another field goal, and it was a similar story for the Chargers; LA led 17-16 with 4:35 to go.
Everyone expected Kansas City to win, but they couldn’t do it with a huge, backbreaking touchdown. The Chiefs slowly milked the clock and set up the game-winning field goal, which doinked in off the left upright.
A DOINK FOR THE DIVISION! IT’S GOOD! @CHIEFS WIN! pic.twitter.com/RtsINqo05m
— NFL (@NFL) December 9, 2024
Yes, Kansas City won 19-17, their seventh straight victory over the Chargers. But it wasn’t easy, and it was too close for comfort. Even Mahomes had his hands on his head in disbelief as he walked off the field.
It was their third straight win by three or less points, their fifth such win this season. In fact, the Chiefs winning margin is only 4.3 points this year, down from 2023 (5.2) and 2022 (7.0).
Chiefs have fallen off, especially offensively
Kansas City isn’t just winning games by closer margins this year than at any point during their run, they are winning on last-second flukes, too.
Last night was the doink-in win. Matthew Wright, who kicked the ball through the uprights, was the team’s third player to make a game-winning field goal this year. Two weeks ago, Aidan O’Connell of the Raiders botched the snap with Las Vegas in field goal range. A made kick would’ve won the game for the Raiders.
And Broncos fans don’t need a reminder, but the heartbreaking blocked field goal to beat Denver in Week 10 was a bit flukey, too.
Offensively, the Chiefs have really fallen to earth the last two seasons. Currently, they’re 11th in points per game, and they were 15th last year. Rewind to 2022 and Kansas City was No. 1 in scoring and they were top-6 the previous six seasons in a row before that.
Another glaring stat: The Chiefs are No. 25 in red zone scoring this year (51.0%).
A lot of that has to do with Mahomes. This season, he has struggled mightily. His touchdown-to-interception ratio (2.4) is the worst of his career, and his 20 touchdowns to 11 interceptions are human-like numbers. They’re not superhuman as we’re used to seeing. His 245.3 passing yards per game are the lowest of his career, and his 92.0 passer rating is the worst besides his rookie season.
All of the Chiefs regression offensively isn’t just Mahomes’ fault, though. Travis Kelce continues to lead the team in receiving yards (682) despite being in his 12th season. K.C. is receiver-desperate, which is why they drafted a receiver in the first three rounds the last three years running. It’s also why they traded for the aging veteran Hopkins in the middle of the year.
Last year, the Chiefs rode their No. 2 defense to a second straight Super Bowl win. This year, the defense is still good, but not nearly as great. They rank seventh in points allowed, and sixth in yards allowed.
For years, the Chiefs would simply outscore opponents. More recently, a dominant defense led them to wins. Now, they aren’t elite on either side of the ball and are the most beatable they’ve been in years.
Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers have risen
While the Chiefs have fallen this year, the AFC West has heated up thanks to the Broncos and Chargers rising.
LA brought in Jim Harbaugh, and he’s been a smash hit for them.
Despite their loss last night, the Chargers are 8-5. That’s already three more wins than last year with four games to play.
LA is playing with a truly dominant defense; they’re No. 1 in points allowed (15.9). That includes the No. 1 red zone defense (41.9%).
Offensively, the Chargers are mediocre, but they do have Justin Herbert at quarterback, which is key. Ironically, he could do with some better pass-catchers, just like Mahomes.
Still, the Chargers are right in the thick of the playoff picture and a win last night would have left them within shouting distance of winning the AFC West.
Likewise, the Broncos immediately became competitive with Sean Payton as head coach last year. They finished 8-9 with Russell Wilson at QB and a team Payton didn’t construct.
This year, Denver’s really coming together. Which is still incredibly fast considering many factors.
First, drafting Bo Nix at No. 12 was a hit. He’s the quarterback of the present and the future, and why Denver’s been better offensively this year. Second, the Broncos are competing despite Wilson’s massive dead cap hit of $87 million. Third, Denver needs more playmakers offensively, too.
Like the Chargers, Denver’s great defense (No. 2 in scoring and red zone scoring) has led them to close wins this year. Other times, the Broncos have blown out opponents when the offense is clicking.
Rewind to the preseason and the Chargers were expected to be about this good. Their O/U for wins was 8.5 games. But the Broncos surprised a lot of people, as their O/U was 5.5 wins.
One can argue both the Broncos and Chargers are a year ahead of schedule and already putting pressure on the Chiefs.
Next year, both Denver and LA should be improved, and it remains to be seen if Kansas City will continue to fall, level out, or rise again.
While the Chiefs just won the AFC West for a ninth straight year, their time of utter dominance in the division is dwindling.