When all things are equal, confidence is often the deciding factor in determining an outcome.
The confident guy gets the girl.
The confident businessman closes the deal.
The confident athlete hits the big free throw, snares the circus catch or sinks the 10-foot putt with a one stroke lead.
Sure, substance, talent and skill are prerequisites and generally can’t be substituted, but confidence is often the great separator.
Confidence was the difference between the 2025 Denver Broncos and the rest of the AFC. Confidence will also keep the Broncos from representing their conference in the Super Bowl two weeks from now.
Sean Payton is confident. Ask him. Or don’t. He’ll just tell you in more ways than one. He’s got confidence in spades.
Sunday, he might have had too much.
The Broncos struck gold with Payton, a coach who brought the downtrodden Broncos back to prominence in short order. And make no mistake, Payton deserves all the credit in the world for his confident approach, which took the Broncos all the way to the AFC Championship Game. He was confident in his decision to say goodbye to Russell Wilson in favor of tackling his next season with a rookie quarterback. His confidence in the draft pick that followed, Bo Nix, was warranted; the confidence in Nix paid dividends as the Broncos returned to the playoffs and then the AFC championship ahead of schedule. Payton is the architect and primary reason behind the Broncos success.
However, it was Payton‘s confidence – or perhaps overconfidence – that cost the Broncos a trip to Super Bowl 60.
Instilling confidence in Jarrett Stidham was an absolute must. Payton had no choice, but to go with his back up, so sending him to battle as confident as possible was the very definition of his job. On the flipside, Payton failed to recognize the reality of the Broncos’ unfortunate situation. And that recognition, or lack thereof, began long before Sunday.
Whether Payton failed to recognize the effectiveness of his weapons, the reliability of his injury-prone acquisitions, the truth of what his backup quarterback was capable of, or the critical nature of putting three more points on the board in the second quarter of a backyard brawl, confidence too often trumped truth.
On fourth and one inside the Patriots 15 the Broncos had a chance to go up 10 to 0 early in the second quarter. Whether the confidence was in his quarterback, who had played exceptionally well up to that point, or his play call, a disjointed rollout pass with limited options, a conservative approach would have suited the Broncos well. Had conservative won over confidence, who knows what might have happened in a game that was ultimately decided by three points. At 10-0, Stidham‘s confidence might have stayed high. Down 10-0, the pressure would have squarely rested on the shoulders of Drake Maye. Up 10 points, the Broncos defense might have been even more aggressive. It’s impossible to say what “might” have or “could” have happened. It’s not a stretch to say the confident decision changed the entire feel of the game.
Again though, the overconfidence extended further back, long before the Patriots game. Payton was presumably so confident in his offense and the weapons it possessed, he and George Paton drafted a cornerback with their first pick of last year‘s draft. Whether or not Jahdae Barron deserved to be picked at No. 20 overall isn’t the point, rather, it’s the Broncos’ overconfidence in what they had versus what they needed. Payton was confident that he had all he needed in tight end Evan Engram. He was confident that J.K. Dobbins would remain healthy. He was confident in his late second-round selection R.J. Harvey. He was confident in Dre Greenlaw‘s ability to stay healthy; for that matter, he was so confident in his own training staff’s ability to keep NFL football players healthy, he failed to give himself any insurance policies behind the Broncos top free agent signings.
Being an NFL coach requires a great deal of self-confidence. Perhaps like no other profession, NFL coaches must believe in their own decisions with all the conviction in the world. The job is not for the faint of heart. There’s no doubt that Sean Payton oozes with confidence.
But there’s a fine line between confidence and delusion. Remember, confidence can often be the separate the great separator when all things are equal. On Sunday in front of a sold-out, frost-bitten, crowd in Denver, Colorado, all things were not equal. Jarrett Stidham was not, and is not, Bo Nix.
On Sunday, the Broncos desperately needed a coach who dealt in the currency of reality instead of an abundance of confidence.
In the AFC, the Broncos most certainly had the best defense, if not the best team. But Super Bowl LX won’t reflect that, as confidence got the best of them.