The Denver Broncos haven’t felt sorry for themselves this week after they dropped their season opener in disappointing fashion against the Kansas City Chiefs. They’ve watched the tape — they know what they have to do better, and there will be a handful of matchups that will likely determine whether or not they bounce back vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Denver Broncos three matchups to watch for vs. Jaguars
Coming into today’s game against the Jaguars, much of the Broncos’ success this afternoon will be determined by whether or not the team comes out and commits to running the football against a very stout Jaguars front seven.
Which matchups will also help Denver get over the hump?
J.K. Dobbins vs. Jaguars defense
The Jaguars were a team in the offseason that had interest in signing J.K. Dobbins, until the Broncos swooped in and re-signed him, where he ultimately wanted to be.
In last season’s 34-20 loss at home, Dobbins was out and on injured reserve with the lisfranc injury that ended his regular season. How he factors into the mix in Sunday’s game will be worth watching.
After only seeing 22 snaps offensively vs. the Chiefs and finishing the game with eight carries, Dobbins has to be a focal point for Davis Webb and the offense coming into Sunday’s game. Last season, Denver struggled to run the ball in Week 1, which led Sean Payton to plan to open up Week 2 against the Colts, running the football until they got a first down — Dobbins’ first carry saw him go for 12 yards.
Denver didn’t run the ball much at all on Monday night, and they have to find a way to be patient with letting the run game develop, but also forcing some looks themselves.
“I think part of that is patience,” Payton said. Sometimes in boxing, those body shots might not appear effective, but they’re important still. So I think both.”
The Jaguars defensive front presents a tough test, but Denver can’t allow them to dictate what they do.
“This is a really good run front,” Payton said. “When you look statistically, it’s a really talented front seven. I’m just talking about when you look at who they’re playing at the [defensive] ends, the nose [tackle], the three-technique. It’s a really good front. Each week as you’re looking at the run plan, you’re trying to find where are the holes or who’s done what well against them. Over the course of the season, I would say their, ‘A’, ability to stop the run and ability to have that balance, that’s the first positive sign for any team that’s looking to flip the script. They did a good job of that last year.”
Riley Moss/Ja’Quan McMillian vs. Parker Washington
Last season’s game in Denver between both of these teams saw Parker Washington’s arrival game come at the expense of the Broncos’ 11-game win streak.
He gave the Broncos’ defense fits with explosive plays, forcing missed tackles, and finished last season’s contest with six catches for 145 yards and one touchdown.
Last week he had five catches on six targets for 83 yards and a touchdown, including a 30-yard catch.
According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Washington has aligned in the slot on 54% of his reps from Week 10 last year to now — In Week 1, he aligned in the slot on 9 of 19 snaps in 11 personnel (47.4%) and 5 of 15 snaps in other personnel groupings (33.3%) against the Cleveland Browns.
So more than likely he’ll draw the primary responsibility of Ja’Quan McMillian in those instances, and Riley Moss on the outside when they align him there. There is also a possibility the Broncos focus Surtain on Washington in key passing-down situations no matter where he aligns.
Containing him will be important for Denver’s defense against the Jaguars’ passing game.
Broncos front seven vs. Jaguars rushing attack
Travis Etienne Jr. may be in New Orleans now, but the Jaguars really like second-year back Bhayshul Tuten. He’s explosive and can change the rhythm of a game quickly if he breaks off a big run.
After the Broncos’ disappointing tackling performance on Monday, you can expect the Jaguars offense to try and come out and have similar success when they rush with Tuten, veteran Ameer Abdullah, and Chris Rodriguez.
Rodriguez had success against the Broncos defense last season as a member of the Washington Commanders. Gameplan wise, the Jaguars will likely try to come out and run the ball. Between their three running backs, they carried the ball a combined 23 times in their win against the Browns in Week 1.
Tuten had 66 yards on 15 carries, including a 12-yard run, and averaged 4.4 yards per carry. Abdullah had four carries for 32 yards and averaged 8.0 yards per carry, including a 12-yard run like Tuten.
According to Next Gen Stats, ‘Tuten gained 98.7% of his rushing yards after contact, a product of forcing nine missed tackles that generated an additional 40 rushing yards. By contrast, Rodriguez recorded 1.1 yards before contact per carry while forcing just one missed tackle in Week 1.’
The Broncos can’t afford to have the alignment and fundamental errors they had in the tackling department in Week 1 carry over into today’s matchup against the Jaguars, or else they could be looking at an 0-2 start.