The Denver Broncos playoff chances are still solid, even though they lost to the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs in back-to-back games.
Denver currently sits at 5-5 on the season, which is still in seventh position in the AFC. And thanks to the expanded playoffs, which include seven teams per conference since 2020, the Broncos are in the playoffs for now.
While being on the edge of postseason contention isn’t ideal, it’s a pleasant surprise for this team. And, the good news is there’s a clear path to the playoffs for the orange and blue.
Denver Broncos playoff chances are still strong at 5-5
We knew it was going to be tough sledding for Denver against the Ravens and Chiefs, and it was. The Ravens blew out the Broncos 41-10, and the Chiefs won thanks to three mistakes on the game-deciding field goal.
But even now, at 5-5, the Broncos are in a good-to-great position to make the playoffs. Which would be the first time since the 2015 season they made it, as Denver die-hards know.
Luckily for Denver, both the Indianapolis Colts and Cincinnati Bengals, who are in Seeds 8 and 9 respectively, lost this week. That dropped them both to 4-6 on the season.
As of right now, the Denver Broncos playoff chances are still better than both teams according to the league’s official website.
On NFL.com, Denver has a 52% chance of making the postseason; Cincy is at 28%, Indy is at 21%.
ESPN gives the Bengals a better shot than Denver, actually. The Bengals have a 35% chance, followed by the Broncos (32%) and Colts (27%).
Finally, The Athletic/New York Times has it as follows: Cincy 40%, Denver 33%, Miami 30%, Indianapolis 20%.
It’s unclear why The Athletic and ESPN give Cincinnati a better shot at making the playoffs. Possibly because they have postseason experience and are led by Joe Burrow at QB.
But for Denver, beating both Cincy and Indy will almost assure the Broncos will make the playoffs.
The Broncos play the Falcons this week, which The Athletic gives Denver a slight 53% advantage of winning. Then, the sorry Raiders and Browns (63% each) before their bye week. They also say the Broncos have a 62% chance of beating the Colts, but only 35% against the Chargers and Bengals, and then a 39% chance against the Chiefs.
Colts have easiest schedule from here on out
Let’s assume The Athletic’s statistical probability models are correct. And let’s give the Broncos a victory in games in which they’re over 50%, and losses in under 50% games. That would mean a 4-3 finish, giving Sean Payton’s team a 9-8 record.
Their same projection model says the Colts will go 4-3 to end the year and will finish 8-9. But they also say Cincy will go 6-1 to finish 10-7.
So, let’s examine each team’s remaining strength of schedule in terms of wins and losses.
The Colts have the easiest slate, facing five losing teams in their last seven games. All told, the Colts’ opponents have a combined 25-43 (.368) record right now.
The Bengals remaining record is an even 32-32 (.500). And 4-7 games are against playoff teams.
Finally, the Broncos, just like the Bengals, have an even .500 record remaining (33-33). Keep in mind they play the perfect 9-0 Chiefs again, and 3-7 games are against playoff teams.
So, that would give Cincinnati a slightly tougher schedule in the grand scheme of things, but only by the tiniest of margins.
The simplest way for the Broncos to assure themselves a playoff spot is to beat both the Colts and the Bengals. Beating Indianapolis at home should be relatively straightforward. But defeating the Bengals in Cincinnati on Dec. 29 could be quite the battle for the Broncos.
Of course, we won’t be talking about the Denver Broncos playoff chances in a few weeks if they don’t take care of business now. Bouncing back against a Falcons team who just lost to the Saints is the first step. Then, must-win games against the Raiders and Browns are up next.
Falcons (6-4) vs. Broncos (5-5) kicks off at 2:05 p.m. MT in the Mile High City on Sunday, Nov. 17.