As the Denver Broncos playoff picture becomes clearer, their next game against the Indianapolis Colts is increasingly important.
That’s true for multiple reasons. First, Denver is in the final AFC playoff spot, while the Colts are on the outside looking in. And second, the Colts have one of the easiest schedules down the stretch.
If the Broncos want to make the postseason for the first time since 2015, they need to beat Indy.
Denver Broncos playoff picture: Beating the Colts is one key
The Broncos are on their bye, incredibly late in the season in Week 14. So are five other teams, including the Colts.
The AFC playoff picture looks like this as of now, before the Week 14 games:
- Kansas City Chiefs, 11-1
- Buffalo Bills, 10-2
- Pittsburgh Steelers, 9-3
- Houston Texans, 8-5
- Los Angeles Chargers, 9-4
- Baltimore Ravens, 8-5
- Denver Broncos, 8-5
- *Indianapolis Colts, 6-7
- *Miami Dolphins, 5-7
- *Cincinnati Bengals, 4-8
* In the hunt
According to NFL.com, the Broncos have a 77% chance of making the playoffs, the Colts have a 25% chance, and the Dolphins are next with 13%. The Athletic gives Denver a 78% chance; 26% to Indy and 11% to Miami. Finally, ESPN is quite similar: Broncos at 75%, Colts at 27%, Dolphins at 9%.
Of note: Over the last month, I’ve written Denver Broncos playoff picture updates every week. This is the closest all three prediction models have been.
In the simplest of terms, the Broncos have to win two more games than the Colts to finish ahead of them. But, if Denver went, say, 2-2 and the Colts went 4-0 both finishing at 10-7, Indianapolis would make it in. That’s because in order to go 4-0 to finish, the Colts would have to beat Denver.
What if the Broncos go 1-3 and the Colts go 3-1? If that were the case they’d each finish tied at 9-8, and it would depend on the outcome of their head-to-head matchup.
Crucially, the first tiebreaker to make the NFL playoffs is head-to-head matchups.
That’s why the Broncos-Colts game is so significant in Week 15. If they beat the Colts, it all but guarantees Denver will be in the postseason for the first time in eight seasons.
That game takes place on Dec. 15 in the Mile High City, with a 2:25 p.m. MT kickoff. Indy is mostly mediocre in many metrics; 22nd in points (20.5) and 17th in points allowed 22.9 while the Broncos are 13th in scoring (23.5) and 2nd in points allowed (18.0).
Colts strength of schedule is second-easiest, Broncos is sixth-toughest
On top of the head-to-head tiebreaker, the Colts also have the second-easiest schedule to finish the season. The Broncos are the one opponent who is in the playoff hunt, as Indianapolis finishes with the Titans (3-9), Giants (2-10), and Jaguars (2-10).
The Colts aren’t a great team. But they are on a bit of a roll lately since quarterback Anthony Richardson rejoined the starting lineup, going 2-1 over that span. It’s conceivable the Colts could go on a run to end the season against those terrible teams.
Meanwhile, the Broncos have tough sledding to finish the year.
First, they play the Colts. Next up is the division rival Chargers (9-4) who have been playing great football under Jim Harbaugh. If Denver beats Indy, and if the Chargers lose to the Chiefs this weekend, that Thursday Night Football game could help shake up playoff positioning. But only if the Broncos beat the Chargers in LA.
Then, Denver faces the Cincinnati Bengals (4-8) who are all but eliminated from the playoffs. Still, they have special talents in Joe Burrow–the AFC offensive Player of the Month of November–and Ja’Marr Chase, among others. They won’t be an easy win, even if they are eliminated in Week 16 when the Broncos play in Cincy.
Finally, the Broncos finish with the one-seed Chiefs. Denver almost beat Kansas City earlier in the year, but failed to execute the game-winning field goal and lost. The Chiefs may be resting their starters in Denver on Jan. 6 depending on how this final month of the season goes.