The Denver Broncos playoff probability continues to improve as the season goes on.
Last week, Denver had a 52% chance of ending their eight-year postseason drought before they played the Falcons. But the Broncos’ blowout win over Atlanta Sunday, coupled with a Cincinnati Bengals loss, means Denver is even more likely to make the playoffs.
With six regular season games remaining, the Broncos still have to take care of business. But they control their own destiny.
A big win helped improve Denver Broncos playoff probability
In the NFL playoff picture, most of the contenders are set.
In the AFC, the Chiefs, Bills, Steelers, and Texans each lead their divisions and have a 98% or better chance to make the postseason. The Chargers (7-3) are in fifth, and the Ravens (7-4) are sixth currently. And each have 90% or better chances to make it in.
Similarly in the NFC, the Lions and Eagles are near-locks, and so are the Vikings, who are the fifth seed for now. The Cardinals (6-4) have to fight because every other team in the NFC West is 5-5. The Falcons (73%), Packers (82%), and Commanders (82%) all have a great shot of getting in, too.
Outside of that NFC West battle, the fight for the No. 7 seed in the AFC is the stiffest competition.
And right now, the Broncos are in the driver’s seat.
Their 38-6 victory over the Falcons–in which Bo Nix set an NFL record by throwing for 300 yards and four touchdowns on 80% completions–increased the Denver Broncos playoff probability by 16%.
Now, thanks to that convincing win, the Broncos have a 68% chance of making the playoffs. The Colts are on the bubble at 30%. Behind them are the Dolphins and Bengals, each at 9%.
Cincinnati (4-7) fumbled away their hopes by losing late to the Los Angeles Chargers. The Bengals came back from down 21 points to tie the game, but missed two field goals late and J.K. Dobbins cemented the win for LA. And Indy (5-6) stayed alive by edging out the Jets 28-27. Today, the Jets fired their GM Joe Douglas.
Of note: The Athletic gives Denver a 48% chance, with Miami (27%), Indianapolis (25%), and Cincy (18%) behind them.
On ESPN, the Denver Broncos playoff probability is 51%, Indy is closest behind at 33%, while Miami (15%), and Cincy (13%) follow.
Broncos playoff berth would break eight-year drought
The last time Denver played a playoff game was in February, 2016 and Super Bowl 50. The good news is, the Broncos won that game, Peyton Manning’s last. It was the franchise’s third Super Bowl win and third Vince Lombardi Trophy.
The bad news is, that was nearly a decade ago. It’s the longest playoff drought in the history of the franchise since they joined the NFL in 1970. (Note: They went 17 total seasons without a postseason berth, but their first 10 years were in the American Football League.)
Ending that drought this year would be the most pleasant of surprises considering the Broncos were expected to be one of the worst teams in the NFL.
In fact, their O/U for season wins was set at 5.5, a number the team just passed. Sean Payton quipped before the season, “The next time I win six games, it will be the first,” but it’s worth wondering: Did he even think they’d be this good?
The defense is third-best in both points (16.6) and yards allowed per game. That, after jettisoning veteran leaders Justin Simmons and Josey Jewell. Part of their success has been the dominance of the defensive line, led by Zach Allen. Denver leads the league with 39.0 sacks, and Allen has been the best interior linemen at winning on pass rushes all year long.
Simply, the Broncos are in playoff contention because they’re winning in the trenches. That includes on the offensive line, where the group has been arguably the best in the NFL this year.
Payton definitely deserves credit for not only turning this franchise around quickly, but elevating the play of Nix and the entire offense. Especially in recent weeks.
Nix will likely win Rookie of the Week for the second straight week, and he’s got the second-best odds of winning Offensive Rookie of the Year. It’s incredible that Nix has closed the gap on Jayden Daniels considering Daniels’ white-hot start and Nix’s ice cold first few games. Lately, Nix is on fire and Daniels has cooled off, bringing the race closer.
Next up for Payton’s Broncos are the sorry Raiders (2-8) and sad Cleveland Browns (2-8). If things go right, Denver will be 8-5 in two weeks and likely in an even better position to make the playoffs.
Down the stretch, Denver faces both the Colts (Dec. 15) and the Bengals (Dec. 29) in games that could decide both of those teams’ postseason hopes. If the Broncos beat them both, it will likely cement the Broncos as a playoff team.