Football season is about to kick off Thursday, and the Denver Broncos season wins total is set at 5.5 at most sportsbooks.
That includes Fanatics Sportsbook, where the over is -145 and the under is +115.
While the Broncos are widely expected to be one of the worst teams in the NFL in 2024–and their youth movement shows they’re focused on the future–many folks are still taking the over. Six wins seems to be the floor in most peoples’ minds.
Fans, Sean Payton confident Denver Broncos season wins go over 5.5
Denver is still in the middle of a rebuild. They’re even arguably still in a tear-down mode, cutting ties with key veterans Justin Simmons and Tim Patrick this offseason.
The Broncos are in the bottom-quarter of the league in most power rankings, although it should be noted they’ve moved up thanks to Bo Nix’s play in preseason.
Still, a 5.5 over/under number for Broncos wins is a bit low.
Sean Payton isn’t phased. He told Jeff Duncan, “I love being the underdog. The next time I only win six games in a season will be the first.”
Payton’s got a point. In his 15 years with the New Orleans Saints, they won the NFC South seven times and went to three NFC Championship Games. And won a Super Bowl. Five times, the Saints went 7-9 on the season, but never 6-10.
And that’s an interesting observation because the Denver Broncos season wins O/U line is 5.5. But it suggests those feeling confident in Denver could even bet over 6.5 wins, and find plus odds.
Taking the over is extremely popular, too.
.@Broncos OVER 5.5 wins – most bet win total at #BetMGM
93% of bets are on the OVER pic.twitter.com/rBrOCYYYIz
— John Ewing (@johnewing) August 28, 2024
Recently on the Bill Simmons Podcast, Simmons and Cousin Sal went through every team and chose their over or under for the season win totals. They were split on the Broncos.
“I love Bo Nix, I’ve seen him live,” Cousin Sal said on the podcast. “But I think this is one of my candidates for worst record.”
“I test drove them as a playoff team and I couldn’t get there,” Simmons said. “I just don’t think Sean Payton…there’s certain coaches I don’t see them having sh***y teams. Seven, six, whatever…There’s going to be four games where he out-coaches somebody.”
Bo Nix has helped elevate expectations in the Mile High City
Most observers both inside and outside Denver agree the Broncos aren’t a great team as they’re constructed. A ton of players are extremely young and inexperienced.
That means 2024 could be another long year, but there is hope for the future.
The Broncos could start to jell and grow this season, setting up for a legitimate playoff run in 2025. That would help them break out of the 8-year playoff drought they’re currently experiencing.
Quarterback Bo Nix is also a reason for Broncos Country to hold onto hope going forward.
Nix hasn’t played against starters so far, but he did shine in the preseason with Broncos backups as his receivers. He’s been composed, calm, and collected in the pocket, finding ways to make plays with his arm and his legs.
He spread the ball around to many receivers during the preseason, hitting Courtland Sutton, Josh Reynolds, Marvin Mims, Lucus Krull, and even Jaleel McLaughlin in stride. In fact, Nix completed passes to 12 different receivers in his three-ish quarters of play. That’s a positive, because he’s not leaning on one guy too much.
And when he’s not finding someone open, Nix can take off on the ground. He’s shown an ability to move and make throws, or tuck the ball and gain a first down. Payton even threw in a designed run to Nix in Week 2 of preseason.
While the volume of play has been limited, Nix hasn’t forced many throws into covered receivers, besides one to Devaughn Vele that was called for defensive pass interference. But one knock on Nix has been his desire to take off when the offensive line is still protecting him well.
Even as a rookie, Nix looks to be an upgrade on Russell Wilson’s play from 2023. That’s giving fans hope for 2024, and especially the next few years. Despite his likely first-year struggles, he’s still a reason why Denver will feasibly hit the over on their 5.5 win total mark.
The Broncos kick off their season on Sunday, Sept. 8 at Seattle with a 2:05 p.m. MDT start.