Mile High Sports

Denver Broncos took their QB, but Bo Nix is a reach at No. 12 overall

Rich Kurtzman
Bo Nix at the Senior Bowl.

Bo Nix at the Senior Bowl. Credit: Vasha Hunt, USA TODAY Sports.

The Denver Broncos finally have their quarterback of the future in Bo Nix.

And Broncos Country is rejoicing, from the Mile High City to the far reaches of its domain.

Football has long been dominated by the QB position, and Broncos fans have been spoiled with the likes of John Elway and Peyton Manning. But since 2016, Denver has been quarterback-desperate. No longer, as Nix takes the reins of the Broncos.

Broncos take Bo Nix at No. 12, but was it a reach?

In the months leading up to the 2024 NFL Draft, many believed Sean Payton and the Broncos were in love with J.J. McCarthy. Just what Payton and GM George Paton wanted. Because it turns out they were actually incredibly high on the former Oregon star.

In fact, according to Benjamin Allbright, Nix was the team’s third QB on the board behind Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels.

That means, not only did they have him higher than the National Champion McCarthy, but Drake Maye, too. Which is a bit of a surprise.

Quickly, quarterbacks flew off the board on Thursday night. Williams, Daniels, and Maye went 1-3, then Michael Penix surprisingly went to the Atlanta Falcons at No. 8 and McCarthy to the Vikings at 10.

That left the Broncos with the choice of taking the last second-tier QB in Nix at 12, take a talented EDGE or tight end like Brock Bowers, or even trade back.

There was certainly a possibility Denver could move back in the first round, acquire another pick or two, and still get Nix. However, with the Raiders behind them, there was fear he’d go to a division rival if they didn’t take him at 12.

So, did Payton and Paton reach to get him?

To start out, Nix and Penix both had Day 2 grades on them before the draft. The Oregon and Washington QBs were rated in the mid-30s going into the NFL Draft, but they went Nos. 8 and 12, respectively.

And according to Arif Hasan’s consensus big board, Nix and Penix tied for biggest reach of the first round. There, Penix was 34th and Nix 36th, using data from 101 different draft big boards.

According to Grinding the Mocks, Penix and Nix were among the biggest reaches going back to 2019.

And while James Palmer isn’t outright calling it a reach, the word “steep” is doing a lot of work here:

Finally, a few folks took some potshots at Sean Payton and the Broncos for taking the Oregon Duck that high:

So, was Nix a reach at No. 12? The short answer is: yes. Denver probably could have taken him later in the first round and added another pick along the way.

The long answer is: Yes, but it won’t matter if he pans out.

If Bo Nix becomes the long-time starter, the reach won’t matter

As referenced earlier, Payton and Paton were high on Bo Nix. He was their 3rd QB even ahead of Maye and McCarthy.

So, Sean Payton got his guy, a young-ish quarterback to build around. And if he is the future of the franchise at the position, the reach won’t matter in the end.

It was the first time Payton has taken a QB in the first two rounds, but he did want to take Patrick Mahomes early back in 2017.

Of course, that’s not saying Nix is going to be the next coming of Patrick Mahomes, but more an indication of Payton’s ability to evaluate QBs.

No doubt about it, the head coach loves his new quarterback. He’s high on Nix’s accuracy, the way he’s battled through adversity, and was impressed during a personal workout with him.

One of the knocks on Nix is his incredibly high percentage of throws at or behind the line of scrimmage last year. Nearly 30% of his passes were at or behind the LOS, and his 6.8 yards per completion were the worst of the six quarterbacks taken in the first round. However, Payton addressed that here, saying the Broncos took those plays out and his YPC was then the best.

Still, Dan Orlovsky is high on Nix, too:

What the Broncos are getting is a Day-1 starter in Bo Nix, who is 24 years old and only seven months younger than 3-year veteran Zach Wilson. He’s an incredibly accurate passer, leading all of FBS in that category last year at 77.4%. But, again, a lot of those passes are easy and short. He also enjoyed the No. 1 offensive line in college last year, but the good news is he is great at making plays off-platform when he needs to.

Nix will likely struggle as a rookie, and possibly even into his second year. But the Broncos rebuild is setting them up to be good again in 2026, if a lot of things go right along the way.

Later tonight, Denver will use their No. 76 selection in Round 3 of the 2024 NFL Draft. And the Broncos certainly have many holes to fill.

Exit mobile version