This weekend’s Divisional Round game features the Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills.
And that means Josh Allen vs. Bo Nix.
In one corner, it’s the heavyweight champion of the world, Allen. In the other corner, an up-and-coming youngster, who’s been up and down all season, Nix.
Who will come out the victor this weekend?
Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills is Josh Allen vs. Bo Nix
When the Broncos host the Bills this Saturday, Allen and Nix will be leading their respective offenses up and down Empower Field at Mile High Stadium.
And all of Denver has to hope their defense can contain him better than the Jacksonville Jaguars did last week.
Allen was by far the best quarterback in the Wild Card round. He led all QBs in passer rating and QBR, among many other metrics, and completed 80% of his passes, throwing for one touchdown and rushing for two more.
One of those other metrics was quarterback efficiency, or EPA+CPOE, where Allen led all active quarterbacks by a wide margin. (Up and right are good, down and left are bad.)
Simply, as Mina Kimes put it on her latest podcast, “Josh Allen is fitting the definition of ‘God tier QB hot at the right time.'”
When the Broncos and Bills face off tomorrow, they’ll need to stop the hottest and best quarterback in the NFL right now. His dynamic playmaking ability will likely be on display, even if he is extremely banged up. Allen injured his right foot in the Week 16 win over the Cleveland Browns. Last week, he hit his throwing hand on a teammate’s helmet, and then hurt his left knee on his first touchdown run.
Still, Allen’s a dangerous dual-threat quarterback.
Slowing Allen’s passing
The first aspect the Broncos need to attack is Allen in the passing game. He was extremely efficient and created explosive plays last weekend. But it must be noted that three Bills receivers have gone on the Injured Reserve the last week, limiting their playmakers as well as their roleplaying receivers who block on screens, like Tyrell Shavers.
Two guys Allen does plan on having are tight ends Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox. Both of them are tremendous pass-catchers, and they were second and third respectively on the team in receiving yards this year behind Khalil Shakir.
The recipe for the Broncos is pressure balanced with contain.
Denver led the NFL in QB pressures this year (213) and they led the NFL with 68.0 sacks, which was a team-record.
Putting pressure on Josh Allen is a two-sided coin. Yes, you want to pressure him, and ultimately get to him, but a team can’t be reckless, either. That’s when he can take off and gash the defense for yards on the ground.
But it must be noted that Allen thrives under pressure, too.
Some Josh Allen under pressure metrics from the Wild Card round36.8% pressure rate (4th highest)+0.19 EPA/dropback (1st)+2.7 EPA (1st)+13.4% completion rate over expected (1st)9/12 for a 75% completion rate (1st)
— Anthony (game script enthusiast) (@proant.bsky.social) 2026-01-13T13:58:31.017Z
Denver can’t just pressure him, they must sack Josh Allen multiple times.
Of note: In the four games he was sacked four-plus times—Philly (5), Houston (8), Atlanta (4)—the Bills lost every time. So the Broncos magic number should be 4 sacks on Saturday.
It’s not just pressure; according to FTN Fantasy the Broncos use more man coverage than anyone but the Eagles and: “Josh Allen had 23.6% DVOA (sixth) against zone but -8.6% DVOA (25th) against man, although the Broncos will need to watch for Allen scrambles against man coverage.”
When Josh Allen runs
The Broncos are extremely unlikely to use a spy, but they will likely use more zone defense when it’s a 3rd and long situation in which Allen may try to take off to move the chains.
That’s where the balance between reckless, all-out pass rush comes together with the need to contain the edge. Nik Bonitto and Jonathon Cooper are great pass rushers, yes, but they need to sustain the edge when Allen looks to tuck and run.
Allen led the NFL in rushing by a quarterback with 569 yards. His 14 touchdowns not only led at QBs, but he was 3rd overall in the NFL behind only Johnathan Taylor and Derrick Henry.
The Bills’ Tush Push is extremely difficult to stop; look for that formation and play near the goal line and on 4th downs.
Denver’s defense is No. 2 against the run, while Buffalo’s offense is No. 1 running the ball.
Bo Nix needs to ball out this weekend
The Broncos need Bo Nix to play at his highest level if they want to win.
He has to complete passes at all three levels of the field, while protecting the ball. He needs to have calm feet in the pocket and good footwork when delivering passes. And Nix needs to take off for positive gains on the ground when possible.
When Bo Nix passes
Bo Nix has been inconsistent through his first two years in the NFL.
He was on fire from Week 11-Week 15, but finished the season on a somewhat downward trajectory. Part of that down play from Nix was Sean Payton’s deliberately conservative game plans, which worked. Part of it was the QB’s inaccuracy issues.
When Nix throws the ball, he regularly avoids the middle of the field because he can get into less turnover trouble outside. According to Bill Barnwell, he had the 5th-highest rate of throws outside the numbers, and 59% of passing yardage outside the numbers.
Expect the Broncos to throw many 1-on-1 passes to Courtland Sutton, Troy Franklin, and Pat Bryant outside the numbers, just like we’ve seen all year.
On the Bills’ defensive side of the ball, they have been disguising their defense well. According to Nate Tice, their “mirror” defensive concepts worked well against Trevor Lawrence and they’ll likely call some against Nix tomorrow. The mirror look means three down linemen rushing, and a spy who drops into coverage. It means an 8-player drop into coverage, which muddies passing lanes and confuses quarterbacks. The Bills are trying to lure the QB in to runs on those plays, and the spy steps up to stop them.
When Bo Nix runs
While he threw less over the last two weeks of the regular season, Nix ran more than he had all year.
Look for him to continue running the ball this week, against the very susceptible Bills rushing defense, which ranks 28th in yards and 31st in touchdowns allowed.
Sean Payton will likely call some designed runs, as we saw all year long. But Nix needs to also tuck it and run, while keeping in mind that “mirror” concept stuff mentioned before. And when he does run, the Broncos QB must protect the football. He only lost two fumbles all year long and winning the turnover battle will have a huge deciding factor in this game.
“In their losses, they lost the turnover battle in all but one of them,” Payton said on Tuesday.
Similarly, two of Denver’s three losses came in games where they had a negative turnover differential this year.
In order for the Broncos to win, Nix doesn’t necessarily need to have better statistics than Allen. He likely won’t. But Nix needs to play smart, controlled football, and take over in the fourth quarter if the Broncos need him to.
Allen will look to do the same thing. Only two QBs have won a game while trailing by 15-plus points and under 6:00 to play. They’re Josh Allen and Bo Nix.
Denver (14-3) vs. Buffalo (13-5) kicks off at 2:30 p.m. MT Saturday on CBS and Paramount+.