The Denver Broncos (8-5) will host the Indianapolis Colts (6-7) on Sunday for a Week 15 AFC conference showdown. Today’s game has major postseason implications at stake, with a Broncos win inching them one step closer to their first playoff berth since 2015, a loss decreases their chances significantly, and they’d lose the tiebreaker to Indy, who has three of the league’s easiest games remaining on schedule.
To put things bluntly, this is the biggest game in the Mile High City in the last six to eight years. This is as big as it gets.
Denver Broncos vs. Indianapolis Colts
Here is the tale of the tape for Sunday’s Week 15 showdown.
Broncos offense:
- Net Yards Per Game – 320.2 (21st)
- Points Per Game – 23.5 (14th)
- Net Rushing Yards Per Game – 111.2 (20th)
- Net Passing Yards Per Game – 209.0 (21st)
- Sacks Allowed – 19 (T-3rd)
- Third Down Conversion Percentage – 37.9% (18th)
- Red Zone Conversion Percentage – 56.8% (15th)
- Top Offensive Players: Bo Nix, Courtland Sutton, Devaughn Vele
- Leading Rusher: Javonte Williams (446 yards)
- Leading Receiver: Courtland Sutton (846 yards, five touchdowns)
Colts Defense:
- Net Yards Allowed Per Game – 379.4 (29th)
- Points Per Game Allowed – 22.9 (18th)
- Net Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game – 147.0 (31st)
- Net Passing Yards Allowed Per Game – 232.4 (26th)
- Sacks – 32 (T-15th)
- Third Down Conversion Percentage – 45.2% (29th)
- Red Zone Conversion Percentage – 56.0% (17th)
- Top Defensive Players: Zaire Franklin, DeForest Buckner, Kenny Moore, Kwity Paye
- Leading Sack Producer: Kwity Paye (6.0)
- Leading Tackler: Zaire Franklin (135)
- Interception Leader: Julian Blackmon (2), Nick Cross (2), and Jaylon Jones (2)
Broncos Defense:
- Net Yards Allowed Per Game – 315.7 (8th)
- Points Per Game Allowed – 18.0 (T-2nd)
- Net Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game – 94.7 (6th)
- Net Passing Yards Allowed Per Game – 221.0 (19th)
- Sacks – 47 (1st)
- Third Down Conversion Percentage – 37.4% (16th)
- Red Zone Conversion Percentage – 43.2% (2nd)
- Top Defensive Players: Patrick Surtain II, Nik Bonitto, Zach Allen
- Leading Sack Producer: Nik Bonitto (11.0)
- Leading Tackler: Brandon Jones (82)
- Interception Leader: Patrick Surtain II (3.0)
Colts Offense:
- Net Yards Per Game – 311.5 (23rd)
- Points Per Game – 20.5 (22nd)
- Net Rushing Yards Per Game – 118.8 (14th)
- Net Passing Yards Per Game – 192.7 (26th)
- Sacks Allowed – 24 (7th)
- Third Down Conversion Percentage – 36.7% (23rd)
- Red Zone Conversion Percentage – 55.0% (T-17th)
- Top Offensive Players: Anthony Richardson, Jonathon Taylor, Alec Pierce, Josh Downs
- Leading Rusher: Jonathon Taylor (804 yards)
- Leading Receiver: Alec Pierce (645 yards, five touchdowns)
Notable Injuries for Sunday’s game
Denver Broncos:
- Cornerback Riley Moss is out with an MCL injury.
Indianapolis Colts:
- Offensive tackle Braden Smith is out due to a personal matter.
- Wide receiver Ashton Dulin is out with an ankle injury.
Key for the Broncos – Get the run game going vs. bad run defense
The Indianapolis Colts run defense has been a sieve all season long and the Denver Broncos rushing attack hasn’t been good all season. Sunday’s game is the perfect opportunity for the Broncos offense to open things up and get the run game going, with what will hopefully be an established rotation between Javonte Williams, Audric Estime, and Jaleel McLaughlin.
“I just think when you look at the carries,” Broncos head coach Sean Payton said on Friday. “These guys [Indianapolis] are really feeding one running back. In other words, that’s easier to do. There’s just not enough snaps. Now there are games where you end up playing the third back maybe because of injury. All of them need something to get going in a rhythm. In fairness to all of them, they’re used to playing. It’s hard to evaluate [RB] Javonte [Williams] or [RB] Audric [Estime] on four touches. We’ll keep working through that though.”
The Colts defense has multiple players with 100+ tackles in Week 15, which usually indicates bad production on the defensive side of the ball. On top of that, the Colts are allowing an average of 147.0 yards on the ground to opponents, which ranks them second to last in the NFL.
Matchup to watch for – Denver Broncos secondary against the Colts wide receiver trio
Without Riley Moss this week, the question around Denver surrounds how the Broncos plan to account for the wide receiver trio from the Colts this week. Coming off of a performance on Monday Night Football where there were too many miscommunications and breakdowns in coverage, Denver has to ensure that doesn’t happen on Sunday.
Alec Pierce, Michael Pittman Jr., and Josh Downs headline the top receiving options for Anthony Richardson. While Richardson’s short and intermediate passing game has been hit-and-miss, he’s more than capable of hitting the home run ball, and the Colts offense takes several shots downfield.
Patrick Surtain II will be matched up in key situations against who the Broncos perceive to be the Colts best receiving option, and Ja’Quan McMillian will maintain his role in the nickel, but who starts opposite of PS2 is the question of the day going into today’s game.
It could be rookie Kris Abrams-Draine, Damarri Mathis, or veteran Levi Wallace, who gave up several big plays downfield against the Browns and is eager to bounce back.