Last night was the final game of the preseason for the Denver Nuggets. They ended up winning, even though the effort wasn’t awesome throughout the game.
What WAS awesome was seeing Julian Strawther absolutely dominate. 33 points on 8-of-13 from the field, 5-of-8 from three-point range, and 12-of-13 from the free throw line. Yes, he did it against the Minnesota Timberwolves backups, but it was still perhaps the most impressive performance of his NBA career.
It was also the culmination of five really strong performances from Strawther.
Julian Strawther this preseason:
28.0 minutes
18.8 points (7th in NBA)
2.6 assists
2.6 rebounds52.6/50.0/77.6 shooting splits
Really appreciated his approach. He set himself up for success this summer and it looks to be paying dividends.
— Ryan Blackburn (@NBABlackburn) October 18, 2024
The rest of the rotation remains in flux though. Let’s discuss early season expectations and then narrow down an expected rotation for this year.
Denver has to get ready for the Oklahoma City Thunder over the next week. With the injury to Isaiah Hartenstein, expect the Thunder to go small for much of the game, especially on the wing/forward spots. There’s incredible guard talent there, which will force the Nuggets to go smaller too.
Assuming Peyton Watson is back and in Denver’s rotation, that likely rules out Zeke Nnaji or DeAndre Jordan playing next to Dario Saric on opening night. Maybe the Nuggets decide to go with Vlatko Cancar or Hunter Tyson instead.
More than likely, the Nuggets will cut the rotation down to nine players on opening night and try to get a win against an elite divisional opponent.
The starters are set in stone, while the bench group comes into clear focus. What was unexpected from the preseason, however, is that Michael Malone chose to stagger Christian Braun with the second unit on several occasions. I don’t think that was by accident, and I’m predicting Denver goes with the above rotation on opening night: keeping the top four players together for roughly 31 out of the 48 minutes and playing the primary bench group together for a significant stretch.
Now, that plan may go out the window within the first few minutes if there’s foul trouble, an injury, or something simply isn’t going according to plan. The most likely addition to the above rotation? One of Michael Porter Jr. or Aaron Gordon staggering with the second unit in place of Braun or Watson.
As for the rest of the season, and against an average opponent that isn’t expected to win roughly 60 games like the Thunder, I expect the Nuggets to go with a 10-man group. They experimented with a 10-man rotation against the T’Wolves last night, and there’s a strong possibility they try something similar in the regular season.
The easiest way to run a 10-man rotation is with hockey substitutions and no staggered lineups. The Nuggets might be able to get away with that reasonably well this year based on their personnel. Who ends up running at backup power forward is up for debate. For now, I penciled in Zeke Nnaji for 14 minutes in the below group. Ultimately, it could be any of Nnaji, Vlatko Cancar, or Hunter Tyson.
It’s a good rotation, and though there’s a lot of all-bench minutes, the team is better positioned to survive minutes like that this season with Westbrook, Strawther, Watson, and Saric. It’s a solid quartet that makes sense, and if the Nuggets can find a 10th guy to help keep the minutes down for each starter, that would go a long way.
Eventually, Michael Malone is going to tighten up his rotations. Players will play more extended minutes when the new calendar year hits in a few months. If there are injuries to Murray or Westbrook specifically, expect the Nuggets to try two-way contract Trey Alexander in different lineups. He appears to have supplanted Jalen Pickett for the third point guard spot, and Michael Malone has given him consistent run in each preseason game.
Denver has to hope the injury bug stays away, but if they’re able to maintain a fully healthy rotation, I expect at least one of Murray or Porter to consistently stagger with the second group. In years past, it’s been Murray; however, the presence of Westbrook and Strawther gives Denver some optionality at the forward spots.
That is why I think Porter becomes the stagger option by midseason.
The lineup featuring Westbrook, Strawther, Watson, Porter, and Saric simply makes too much sense. Allowing Westbrook as much space as possible, giving him running mates in transition, and opening up the paint with a pick-and-pop option in Saric is the entire theory of the group. When Porter exits the floor in the second and fourth quarter, I have Strawther staying out there to provide spacing; however, if the Nuggets need more defense, Watson should be perfectly capable to fill that spot by then.
It remains possible to stagger starters without playing an overwhelming amount of minutes if the plan works. Obviously, if the bench collapses, Jokic, Murray, and Gordon are coming back in sooner rather than later to stabilize things. Still, it’s a solid attempt at a 9-man rotation that stays within the boundaries of what’s reasonable physically.
That will be the final rotation I put together though for one simple reason: the trade deadline. If the Nuggets go through the above three rotations and still determine they need something else, it’s likely they won’t find it on the current roster. Perhaps Trey Alexander proves to be ready faster than expected. Perhaps Vlatko Cancar shoots the cover off the ball and simply has to be on the floor. Maybe the Nuggets decide to stagger Murray instead, thinking that a facilitating guard like Westbrook can get him some open looks.
A much stronger possibility: the Nuggets try to add a player at the trade deadline or on the buyout market. It would be good insurance to add an additional veteran wing or ball handler. Maybe Denver ends up needing more shooting. Whatever the case, if they add someone new, the rotation might look drastically different when it’s all said and done.
For now, it will be interesting to see what the Nuggets end up doing on opening night.