With the 2016 NBA Draft just a meager five days away, we come to the complete breakdown of players that seem to be on the Nuggets’ radar. The Denver Nuggets own three first round draft picks and two second round picks this year.
Today we break down five different players who could be available with the seventh selection in the NBA Draft.
*Picks 15 and 19 will be covered in a later article*
Jamal Murray, Kentucky
Age: 19 years old Size: 6’4, 207 pounds
Last Year’s Stats: 20 points; 5.2 rebounds; 2.2 assists per game
Percentages: 45.4% from the field; 40.8% from three-point; 78.3% from the free throw line
Jamal Murray and the Nuggets seem to be a match made in heaven. The Kentucky guard shot almost 41 percent from the three-point line and was one of the elite scorers in the nation. With Mudiay needing a floor spacer next to him, it seems like a no-brainer to draft Murray, right? Maybe not. He had some extreme issues defensively at the college level, which almost always equates to awful defense when in the NBA and lacks the athletic ability to create his own space consistently.
Jamal Murray, simply put, is a bit slow and un-athletic to be considered in the top five picks of this draft. His problems defensively could not be covered up in college, and his issues will become exponentially worse at the NBA level. He lacks the quickness to keep up with more wily point guard and lacks the strength to guard shooting guards. Teams will constantly run him through screens to take advantage of his slower feet and try to get him mismatched on frontcourt players. Murray needs to find a way to alleviate some of his defensive problems.
When it comes to his offensive game, his physical shortcomings will be a large detriment as well. Murray started the season as the primary ball-handler for the Wildcats. He struggled mightily with the ball and did not score as much. It was not until the emergence of Tyler Ulis that Murray started raining threes down like mortar fire. Point is that Murray does not create well for himself or others as a ball handler. He has an assist to turnover ratio of about 1:1, which is bad for a wing, let alone a combo guard.
Murray does have fantastic scoring instincts and one of the more beautiful shooting strokes ever seen. His mechanics are sound and never deviate; plus, his release is incredibly quick. He has added a floater to his arsenal that is getting better, and he does aggressively attack the rim, even with limited athleticism.
It would take quite a bit of development for Jamal Murray to ever become even a player of J.J. Reddick’s stature. He could bottom out somewhere near what Randy Foye was for the Nuggets: a guard who worked hard on the defensive end to no avail and would have some scoring bursts. He may be destined to be a scoring punch off the ball, which is a role that he could flourish in.
Murray could be available with the seventh selection, and it would be extremely hard for the Nuggets to pass on him. If taken for what he is, and if he plays within himself, he could be a contender for the sixth Man of the Year award for a big chunk of his career.
Dragan Bender, Maccabi Tel Aviv
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RjDusF1KZWE
Age: 18 years old Size: 7’1, 225 pounds
Last Year’s Stats: 2.1 points; 1.4 rebounds; 0.6 assists per game
Percentages: 33.3% from the field; 25% from three-point; 50 % from the free throw line
If the Nuggets somehow had a chance to draft Bender with the seventh pick in the draft, all would be right after not moving up in the lottery for the eighth consecutive time. His fit with the Nuggets is undeniable. The enormity of issues for the Denver Nuggets are centered around their lack of perimeter shooting and perimeter defense, which fits right into Bender’s wheelhouse. While adding a three-point happy guard may work in the long haul, in the grand scheme of things, adding a stretch four could space the floor even more than someone like a Jamal Murray or Buddy Hield. Having both of your frontcourt players able to expand the floor and open up the lane for Mudiay is the key to creating an ultra-efficient offense. With Nikola Jokic most comfortable operating out of either post and Bender’s game being much more perimeter oriented, they match extremely well together.
Being 7-foot-1, with blindingly quick feet, gives Bender the added benefit of being able to play as a small-ball center, power forward, or even a small forward in certain lineups. He does have a shell of a post game and has the lateral quickness and fast-twitch type movements that will allow him to develop more post moves and counter moves as he develops more in the NBA.
His three-point shot is smooth as Sinatra and his first step is much quicker than most believe. Add in NBA level vision and handles coupled with the added benefit of a high basketball IQ and he has the potential to be an above average offensive player. With Jokic able to step out to the corner when Bender makes a move to the basket you create space in both facets. Do you give up the corner three to the Jokic or do you provide help defense to your power forward who got beat off the dribble by Bender? The mismatches are endless based on each Bender and Jokic’s versatility.
Bender’s ability to switch on pick-and-roll defense is what could catapult his game from a spot-up-shooting stretch four, with some handles, into a two-way monster. If Bender is able to bulk up and play longer stretches as a small ball center you could play him in a lineup such as Mudiay, Harris, Chandler, Gallinari and Bender and switch every pick and roll. While Bender struggles rebounding defensively, he has proven that he can contain guards on the perimeter, as well as block shots from the weak side.
Another added benefit of the Nuggets drafting Bender is their European connections. With so many players from overseas it will make the transition into the NBA lifestyle much easier for him. Arturas Karnisovas has likely already met and talked with Bender overseas at some point, being as connected as he is. The Nuggets have been impeccable recently in their foreign scouting.
Most mock drafts have Dragan Bender between 3-6 but with the majority of the lottery being virtually interchangeable, anything could happen. Even Emmanuel Mudiay fell to the Nuggets at seven after being slated to go 2-6 the entire draft process. If the Nuggets are blessed by the basketball gods and somehow have a chance to pick Bender, then they should do so with no hesitation.
Marquese Chriss, Washington
Age: 18 years old Size: 6’10, 233 pounds
Last Year’s Stats: 13.8 points; 5.4 rebounds; 0.8 assists per game
Percentages: 53.1% from the field; 35% from three-point% 68.5% from the free throw line
There is almost always at least one “All-Star or bust” type prospect in every draft class. Without a doubt, that player is Marquese Chriss in this year’s NBA Draft. Chriss is your perfect modern-day stretch-four. Combining epic leaping ability with a soft shooting touch out to the three-point line and the potential to guard out on the perimeter.
Adding Chriss would mean that the Nuggets are not looking to win right away. It will take Chriss a few years to develop the court awareness he so severely lacks. He has issues fouling too much, fouling out 15 of 34 games this past season, and turns into the anti-Christ of a heavy ball-movement type offense. When people throw around the term “black-hole,” you might as well slap a picture of Marquese Chriss with it. Over the course of Washington’s season Chriss accumulated 26 assists and 69 turnovers, one of the worst ratios in college basketball. Most of Chriss’s issues have to do with his inexperience playing basketball. He only has around four years of actual competitive basketball playing time. He needs reps more than anything, which means he will likely see the D-League on a few separate occasions.
When it comes to the positives of his game the story starts and ends with his upside.
Athletically, Chriss is among the top players in the nation. He is fast in transition and has hands so large that Kawhi Leonard would be jealous. He uses his monstrous hands to catch lobs on the break with both or just one hand. Chriss hit 35 percent of his three-point shots this year and showed a promising face-up post game as well. He has a decent first step and has the ability to drive in a straight line. While he did not shoot particularly well at the rim, he does not shy away from contact being that he is from a football background, which bodes well for his development as a power forward.
Chriss has a bountiful amount of upside to his game. He needs time, patience, and a wonderful coaching staff to get the most out of him. Maybe the passing of Mudiay and the versatility of Jokic can help bring out the best in Chriss while Malone ingrains his defensive principles on the highly malleable basketball mind of Marquese Chriss. The Nuggets have been looking to add more athletic ability to the roster, and with Kenneth Faried seemingly being squeezed out, the potential for the Nuggets to take a gamble on a high upside, floor-stretching power forward with unbelievable upside seems higher then ever before.
Buddy Hield, Oklahoma
Age: 22 years old Size: 6’4, 214 pounds
Last Year’s Stats: 25 points; 5.7 rebounds; 2.0 assists per game
Percentages: 50.1% from the field; 45.7% from three-point; 88 % from the free throw line
With Hield being mocked to Denver more than any other player, Buddy has Denver buzzing about bringing his talents to the Mile High City. Like Murray, Hield brings elite perimeter shooting with physical limitations. The majority of his criticisms come from his age, 22 years old, and if he can produce at the NBA level the way he has in Oklahoma.
Buddy Hield is the type of college player that is the most difficult to gauge. He took a huge step forward developmentally in his senior season. Now the big question is if this season is an outlier or if this is legitimate development. Shooting 45.7 percent from three-point range is absolutely obnoxious. Add in the fact that he had the fourth highest points per possession on “guarded” jumpers and that does not point towards sustainability either. While Hield had one of the more intense statistical seasons in college basketball, can he sustain that type of scoring? Good money says no way, even if he did hit 89/100 three pointers unguarded at his Boston Celtics workout.
Hield excels most when being ran through mazes of screens to create space for him to use his rapid-fire release. When it comes to scoring off of curls or screens there is no one doing it better. He has range out past the NBA three-point line and uses that range the second you give him an inch of breathing room. Hield improving his slashing ability helps diversify his game and taught him to be a better off-ball cutter.
Hield has all of the work ethic, shot making and basketball IQ to be a solid contributor at the next level, but in terms of creating for himself and teammates, he will most likely struggle. Like Murray, if he learns to play within himself, he could be a deadly catch-and-shoot weapon for almost any team, Nuggets included. With Buddy seemingly going anywhere from three and 10, the Nuggets could find themselves with Hield still available with the seventh pick.
Jaylen Brown, Cal
Age: 19 years old Size: 6’7, 223 pounds
Last Year’s Stats: 14.6 points; 5.4 rebounds; 2.0 assists per game
Percentages: 43.1% from the field; 29.4% from three-point; 65.4% from the free throw line
There is no player in the NBA draft outside of the consensus top two picks who has better physical tools than Jaylen Brown. Being 6-foot-7 and 225 pounds, while sporting an overwhelming seven-foot wingspan at 19 years old, is staggering. Brown has elite athletic ability. He can float among the stars, while blowing by you with his quickness and impeccable body control. He possesses the most effortless and powerful ability to go hoop to hoop in college basketball last year.
The first thing you need to know about Jaylen Brown is that he not just an athlete. He is so intelligent, an NBA executive once dubbed him “too smart for the league.” His unquenchable curiosity and incredible IQ has been perceived as a negative to some, which is utterly baffling. He may not fall into the normal criteria of an NBA player, but to find a prospect that was taking graduate classes as a freshman at one of the most prestigious non-Ivy League schools in the country should not be taken as a negative but as a massive positive. Brown is so high minded he was taking Global Poverty and Student Activism as a freshman so that he would be able to help homelessness and poverty in the United States. Prospects like him are almost non-existent.
Not only is he representing himself after interviewing five well-known agents, but he has created a panel, of sorts, consisting of Hall of Famer Isaiah Thomas and Cal Berkley star Shareef Abdur-Rahim to help him as advisors while he learns the NBA collective bargaining agreement himself. He had a fantastic quote with The Undefeated explaining his representation.
“The resources I have and the people around me have all done this before,” Brown said. “Isiah Thomas has been through it. Shareef Abdur-Rahim has been through it. I’ve got educators, teachers with Ph.D.s, that are scholars who [are] around helping me out and advising me. I know they know what they are doing and what they are talking about.”
When talking about Brown’s offensive game it all starts with his athletic ability. He is a terror in transition, with or without the ball. He has strong hands and a ridiculous 8-foot-9 standing reach. He makes his living as a slasher and getting to the free throw line. Brown is elite when in space and has absolutely no fear when going to the rim. He has incredible body control when focused. Brown could be elite going to the rim if he can polish his court awareness.
Brown as a defensive player is a slightly more muddled discussion. He has shown the ability to do truly whatever he wants on the defensive end of the floor. Brown possesses the quickness to lock down guards on the perimeter and close out so quickly it’s as if he teleported. He is strong and wide enough to switch onto power forwards in the post and hold his own, as well as box out and secure the defensive rebound. A player who has the physical ability to guard four different positions is one of the most desirable traits and can transform a team’s philosophy. If he can reach that potential is another argument.
On the other hand, Jaylen Brown has some large issues with his court awareness. For all the talent Brown has, he loses focus on defense far too often, whether on or off the ball. He misses rotations and forgets to help weak-side consistently. A lot of these awareness issues are not a basketball IQ problem; they seem to stem from the fact that Brown has been able to get by based on pure athletic ability.
This had led to deficiencies in many different areas. Brown has good handles but tries too much with the ball in his hands. He has decent shooting mechanics but they are not consentient. He tends to fade either direction or force up tough shots. This may have a lot to do with the awful spacing that Cal had this year on offense, but shooting only 43.1 percent from the field and 29.4 percent from three-point is not acceptable for an NBA wing of his caliber.
Whether or not Brown reaches his potential will mostly depend on which team drafts him. He is not ready to contribute to a winning team right away and will have an obnoxious amount of rookie mistakes in his first season. When it comes to the Nuggets, I like his fit more for long-term purposes rather then for right now. Having two non-shooters is going to lead to spacing issues that may not be cured very easily.
Jaylen Brown’s upside is too much to pass on with the seventh pick. Michael Malone may be the perfect coach to tighten up his game and is just as curious and driven as his potential seventh pick. Combining Malone’s defensive chops with Brown has the potential to change Nuggets basketball.