Well, this game is going to be a doozy.
The Denver Nuggets, who currently occupy the second seed in the death gauntlet that is the Western Conference playoff race, will be taking on the third-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder in the friendly confines of the Pepsi Center with the stakes as high as they could get for a game at the end of February.
Not only will this be a heavy-weight slugfest between the second and third seeds in the West, but it will also have massive implications on the Western Conference playoff race, it will heavily impact tiebreaker scenarios and it will also alter the battle for playoff positioning.
Let’s dive into what is at stake on Tuesday night for both of the Nuggets and the Thunder.
Tiebreaker scenarios
While this seems obvious, it is still important to state: the higher the seed that Denver secures, the better their odds of winning are once the playoffs arrive. In order for Denver to guarantee themselves the highest possible seed, they must secure as many tiebreakers as possible.
There are three types of tiebreakers that carry heavy importance. The most important is head-to-head record. The second most important (to the Nuggets) is their division record. Last, but not least, is conference record.
At the time of writing, the Nuggets have the best winning percentage against Western Conference opponents (26-10), the best winning percentage against divisional adversaries (7-1), and they have yet to lose any head-to-head tiebreakers with Western Conference playoff hopefuls.
Here is how Denver stacks up in terms of head-to-head tiebreakers against all teams that still have a chance to reach the Western Conference playoffs (a checkmark means Denver has already secured their head-to-head tiebreaker).
#Nuggets head to head W/L against Western Conference playoff hopefuls:
GSW: 1-1, 2 games left
OKC: 2-0, 2 games left
POR: 2-0, 2 games left
HOU: 1-2, 1 game left
UTA: 1-1, 2 games left
SAS: 1-1, 2 games left
LAC: 3-1, ✅
SAC: 3-0 ✅
LAL: 1-1, 1 game left— T.J. McBride (@TJMcBrideNBA) February 25, 2019
With a win over the Thunder on Tuesday night, Denver could improve their odds in all three tiebreakers.
First off, the Thunder are obviously a team in the West so a win over Oklahoma City would only improve on Denver’s Western Conference-leading record against Western Conference opponents.
Secondly, a win over Oklahoma City would continue to improve on Denver’s Western Conference-leading divisional record. A win would also allow the Nuggets to continue their strangle hold on the Northwest Division title (which would give the Nuggets another tiebreaker over all Northwest Division teams if needed).
Lastly — and most important — a win over the Thunder would secure Denver’s head-to-head tiebreaker over the Thunder. Prior to Denver’s Tuesday night matchup with Oklahoma City, the Nuggets have won both of their battles with the Thunder with two more meetings left on the schedule. If Denver locks in their third win of the season over Oklahoma City, it will secure their head-to-head tiebreaker over the team that is directly behind Denver in the standings.
Room to breathe
With just 23 games remaining on the Nuggets’ schedule prior to their third encounter with the Thunder, Denver is looking to get their work done early. If Denver wants to lock up a top-two seed in the West as soon as possible, a home win over Oklahoma City is necessary.
The reason why is because the Thunder represent one of the only realistic teams who could overtake the Nuggets for the second seed in the West.
The Portland Trail Blazers, who currently occupy the fourth seed in the Western Conference playoffs, are five losses back of Denver. That is a sizable amount of ground to make up with so few games remaining. Beyond the Trail Blazers, the fifth-seeded Houston Rockets are still seven losses back while the sixth-seeded Utah Jazz are eight losses back. It would take a complete disaster by Denver in the last 23 games for any of those teams, other than the Thunder, to have even the slightest chance of catching Denver in the standings.
However, the Thunder are just three losses behind the Nuggets. If Denver loses to Oklahoma City on Tuesday night, the Thunder will be just two losses and two games back of the Nuggets with 22 games to go. Oklahoma City would also still have one more meeting with Denver left which allows the Thunder an outside shot at winning a tiebreaker.
Still, even if the Thunder win both of the last two head-to-head meetings against Denver, the reason that it would be tough for the Thunder to lock up a tiebreaker over the Nuggets is because of how many division wins Denver already has. The Nuggets have eight divisional games left while the Thunder have six. If the Nuggets went 4-4 in their last eight division games, the Thunder would need to win all six of their remaining divisional games, including both meetings with Denver, to secure the tiebreaker. That is a tough ask for any team.
Inversely, if Denver defeated their divisional foe on Tuesday night, the Nuggets would go four losses up on the Thunder, secure their tiebreaker over Oklahoma City, and with just 22 games remaining, Denver would essentially have a five-game lead on the Thunder when accounting for Denver’s tiebreaker while also leading the West in conference and division record.
That is what makes the tiebreaker that Denver can secure over Oklahoma City so critical. If the Nuggets lock in that tiebreaker, it obviously means that the Thunder cannot end up in a tie with the Nuggets. That means that Oklahoma City would be required to pass the Nuggets in the standings if they want to ascend to the second seed which means Denver would essentially have a five-game lead on the Thunder; not just four.
Considering how few games remain in the regular season, the difference between the second and third seed could mean playing the Rockets in the first round or playing the Clippers. A win over the Thunder on Tuesday night is the first step towards matching up with the latter as opposed to the former.
Denver has handled Oklahoma City very well this season
The Nuggets are staring at an incredible opportunity on Tuesday night. A win would increase their odds of securing a top-two seed drastically, but a loss would open up opportunities for the Thunder to catch Denver in the standings.
Thankfully, Denver has played extremely well in their two meetings with Golden State.
In the two meetings between the Nuggets and the Thunder this season, Denver has an offensive rating of 108.1 and a stingy defensive rating of 99.5. The Nuggets are holding the Thunder to just 98 points per game while forcing Oklahoma into awful shooting percentages. Against Denver, Oklahoma City is shooting an awful 38.3 percent from the field and an even more abysmal 27.6 percent from 3-point range.
The largest reason for the Thunder’s offensive struggles against the Nuggets is because of the phenomenal job that Denver’s defense has done against Russell Westbrook, who is averaging a 14.5 point, 12-rebound, and 10-assist triple-double against Denver, but is shooting an atrocious 28.9 percent from the field and a ghastly 13.3 percent from 3-point distance on a whopping 7.5 attempts per game. Most of the credit belongs to Torrey Craig, who has been the primary defender on Westbrook more than any other Nuggets player.
In the two meetings between the Nuggets and Thunder, Craig has defended Westbrook for 102 possessions according to NBA.com. In those 102 possessions, Westbrook has only been able to score a measly 15 points. With Craig defending, Westbrook has shot 5-of-24 from the field and 0-of-10 from 3-point range combined in their two meetings this season.
Additionally, as Matt Moore of the Action Network pointed out in his preview, Nikola Jokic thrives against the Thunder. When playing against Oklahoma City, Jokic is posting an offensive rating of 114.6 and an insane defensive rating of just 95.4 which equates out to an incredible +19.2 net rating. Simply stated, Jokic is nearly unstoppable when he plays against the Thunder despite the fact that Steven Adams is one of the best defenders in the league.
Still, there is one gigantic worry for Denver. If Westbrook is able to play more altruistically against the Nuggets, they have no answer for Paul George, who his having an MVP-caliber season. When Westbrook is playing selflessly, and not trying to individually destroy Torrey Craig, Denver will have no answer to George, who can crush Denver in all kinds of different ways. If Westbrook slices into the lane and collapses Denver’s defense, George will kill Denver from the 3-point line. If Denver tries to run George off the 3-point line, he will be able to get to the rim and finish or create for his teammates with Denver’s defense scrambling. If Westbrook takes a back seat and lets George run the show, there is no one on Denver’s roster who can defend George one-on-one.
The outcome of the Nuggets battle with the Thunder will likely come down to which version of Russell Westbrook shows up in the Mile High City. Denver can defend the Thunder when Westbrook is extremely ball-dominant, but if he is playing with a goal to get George involved, it is going to become a very tough game for Denver.
With so much on the line, the battle between the Nuggets and Thunder is setting up to be one of the best games of the year for both teams. Buckle up because it is going to be a wild night.