Despite having drastically different records – these Broncos have already won 12 games with two more to go – there’s something eerily similar about the 10-7 2024 Denver Broncos and this year’s team.
Or, perhaps, there’s primarily a similarity when it comes to the defensive side of the ball.
And that’s where the problem lies – or, at least, potentially lies.
It’s been said all season, and last for that matter, that the strength of the Denver Broncos is their defense. It’s true, for two straight seasons, the Broncos have made their mark by shutting down the opposition. Generally speaking, Vance Joseph’s bunch could be categorized as a “bend but don’t break” defense, having a knack for timely sacks and third down stops and stingy in the red zone where it matters most. With a quick glance at the stats, it’s safe to say that the Broncos – both last year and this year – have been very good on defense.
There’s another truth, however, that’s a bit more troubling. For two straight years, Joseph’s defense has faltered down the stretch.
After Sunday’s home loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars – a game in which Trevor Lawrence and Co. put up 34 points and went 8-15 on 3rd down – many began to wonder just how good Denver’s D truly is. If the Jags performance was an anomaly, an understandable and forgivable let-down for a team that had won 11 straight and hadn’t lost at home – that would be one thing. But the numbers tell a different story. There’s a trend worth noting.
In the first 11 games of the season, the Broncos defense only surrendered 274.36 yards per game. In its last four, that number soars to 339.
When it comes to 1st downs given up, the trend is similar. In the first 11 games, Denver allowed 17.2 1st downs to its opponents; in the last four, again, the number grows to 21.75.
And points (which is what matters most), the pattern continues. In their first 11 games, Denver opponents scored at a snail’s pace clip of just 17.45 points per game. In the last four, the Broncos have given up 8.3 more points per game, giving up 25.75.
For the here and now, there’s no denying it: Joseph and his defense have some issues to address. The concern, however, is that this situation is nothing new. The 2024 Broncos experienced a nearly identical collapse.
In 2024, through 11 games, Denver’s defense gave up 289.4 yards per game, 18 1st downs per game and 16.6 points per game – all impressive numbers.
But in their last seven, which includes both the playoff game against Buffalo and a laugher against a Kansas City “light’ team in the season finale, the numbers swell to 382.7, 22.15 and 22.7 respectively. Throw out the freebie against the Chiefs and the trend looks even worse: 430, 25 and 26.6. Yikes.
When it comes to stopping the opposition on third down, the late season dip is once again similar.
This season, the Broncos average an impressive 33.5% when it comes to the opponents’ ability to convert on 3rd down. However, in the last three games, that number isn’t so shiny, as the defense has allowed a conversion rate of 45.95%.
The 2024 book reads the same. On average, the Broncos defense allowed a 38.25% 3rd down conversion rate. In their last three games, however, the rate jumped to 43.24%.
If you’re bored by math, and stopped punching numbers into your calculator a few paragraphs ago, that’s understandable. If you want the Clif’s Notes version of what’s taking place, it’s pretty simple:
The Broncos defense has a nasty habit of failing when it matters most.
With two games left on the regular season schedule and the playoffs just around the corner, the disturbing trend that seems to plague Denver’s defense had better get reversed.
If it doesn’t, the Broncos will once again be a one-and-done playoff team.