If the Broncos are going to make the playoffs this year, they’ll have to earn it.
In 2018, the Broncos had a strength of schedule of .523. That was tied with the Buccaneers and Bills for the sixth-most difficult schedule in the league based their opponents’ average win-loss percentage.
In 2019, things won’t be getting any easier. In fact, things will only be getting more difficult for the Broncos, as their opponents in 2019 hold an average win-loss percentage of .537, the second-highest in the NFL, trailing only the Raiders (.539).
That news should be concerning to Broncos fans. If their strength of schedule lives up to its projection, their playoff odds are slim to none.
It’s clear strength of schedule has a huge effect on a team’s season. The teams with the eight most difficult schedules in 2018 all are drafting in the top-11. Conversely, of the teams with the ten easiest schedules in 2018, eight made the playoffs while the two that didn’t (Falcons and Dolphins) were hit hard by injuries.
That being said, plenty of people will argue that projecting strength of schedule based on the last season’s records is a poor indicator and should be taken with a grain of salt. However, even when one takes a deeper, more analytical approach to projecting strength of schedule, things don’t get much better for the Broncos.
Warren Sharp found that when using Vegas win-loss lines to calculate strength of schedule, the Broncos stay right where they are holding the league’s second-most difficult schedule. Sharp also found that the Broncos are one of just four teams (Texans, Titans, Chiefs) to not face a single team ranked in Vegas’ bottom five and that only four teams (Texans, Titans, Chiefs, Raiders) play fewer teams ranked in the bottom ten.
To make matters even worse, no team plays as many games against top-ten opponents as the Broncos, who will have to play eight such games. As for top-five opponents, the Broncos are tied for the most games with the Bears, Texans, and Raiders.
It seems like a case of bad luck for the Broncos, as their actual 2018 strength of schedule combined with 2019 projected strength of schedule (avg. rank of 29.5) is worse than only the Raiders (avg. rank of 31).
Even with news as bad as this, it’s always nice to remember things are worse for the team from Oakland.
Per Vegas’ win-loss predictions, the Broncos are projected to finish the season with 7.1 wins, tied for 22nd with the Jets. That means that of the Broncos’ 16 games, they’ll play a team projected to be better than them in 12 of them.
The only games where Denver is viewed as a better team? Their two bouts with the Raiders, a home game against the Lions, and a road trip to Buffalo against the Bills.
That doesn’t bode well for the Broncos, as in 2018, of their 10 games against opponents better than them they went 2-8, while in games against opponents worse than them they went 3-3. If those winning percentages hold, the Broncos would finish the 2019 season at 5-11.
If the schedule projections are right, the Broncos are almost certainly headed for another top-10 pick in 2020.