Drew Lock finished 2020 on a high note. At least, he was better than he was at the beginning of the year, even if that wasn’t good enough to be considered even mediocre.
Some fans point to the fact that Lock improved down the stretch of the 2020 season as to why he will make the leap from the worst QB in the NFL to “the guy” this year.
And this little graphic points to that slight growth in the second half of the season.
Haven’t verified the accuracy but it does paint a tale of two very different halves. pic.twitter.com/ryD0t1x4Ri
— Bridget 🏈 (@denbron77) May 21, 2021
In reality, this doesn’t paint the picture of “two very different halves” of a season. A completion percentage of only 60 percent is barely passable in today’s NFL, and would have resulted in a 32nd overall ranking. 7.0 yards per pass would have been good for only 23rd. And while an 85.7 passer rating would be a solid improvement, he would still rank 27th in that category.
Of course, the more important point is one cannot simply cherry-pick certain weeks and say, “See, he’s improving!” Even during that stretch of only five games, Lock was wildly inconsistent, which has been a key characteristic of his career in Denver to this point.
Yes, he went off in Carolina. He was damn-near perfect (outside the fumble-6) in that game. And, the season-finale against the awful Raiders, Lock was also very good (339 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT). But Lock was barely serviceable in the other three games during that stretch (3TD, 4 INT, 1 FL).
The simple, objective truth is: Lock is one of the five worst QBs in the NFL today, and those small gains at the end of 2020 aren’t enough to warrant giving him the reins of the Broncos in 2021.
The Broncos need much more out of their quarterback than what Lock gave them in 2020. They need a consistent passer who doesn’t turn the ball over at a nearly 1.5 per game rate.
That’s why Denver signed Teddy Bridgewater this offseason.
Comparing Bridgewater and Lock’s 2020 seasons, it’s clear who is the frontrunner to win the position in 2021: Teddy B.
While his touchdown and interception numbers are mediocre (15 TDs, 11 INTs), Bridgewater’s 69.1 completion percentage was 5th-best in the NFL (Lock’s 57.3 was worst). Similarly, his 80.5 on-target percentage was 4th-best (Lock’s was worst), while Lock’s 22.9 percent of passes were uncatchable (worst) and Bridgewater’s 13.0 percent were more respectable.
Certainly, those numbers from Bridgewater are better than Lock’s were, although, they weren’t amazing (outside of his accuracy). Although, it’s possible Teddy B. could experience better numbers this season with the Broncos’ brilliant wide receiver room after playing with Curtis Samuel and Robby Anderson last year.
And, it’s no done deal in terms of who will be the starter in September.
While Bridgewater clearly has a better NFL career, and a better 2020 season, Lock has the upper hand currently. That’s because he’s been in this offense since last year, learning not only the terminology but the players’ tendencies as well. Lock has also been at Dove Valley “almost every day” this offseason, pushing himself to grow. And during voluntary practices last week, Lock is at the team’s practice facility while Bridgewater is taking care of personal business.
Clearly, Bridgewater has some catching up to do. And that battle will take place this offseason and likely into the preseason at least.
Considering Denver has one of the best rosters in terms of defense, the Broncos may only need a game manager this year to compete for the playoffs in 2021. Teddy B. is a safer, more consistent option who turns the ball over less.
But when Lock’s on, he’s electric. Can he be “on” more consistently?