There are two way to beat a better team (like the Packers) with a notable homefield advantage (like the one enjoyed at Lambeau Field).
Be the better team.
Or, be the beneficiary of a dynamic performance by a dynamic player.
The best team on the field in Green Bay on Sunday will, in fact, be the Packers. They’re the better team. Whether simply applying the eyeball test, or just looking at the standings and head-to-head comparables, it’s really not debatable: The Packers are currently better than the Broncos. If everyone is being honest, the odds of the Broncos leaving with a win are slim to none, and Slim could be boarding a plane back to Denver by halftime if the Broncos aren’t careful. As of Friday morning, Vegas is spotting the Packers a whopping 7.5 points.
But that doesn’t mean that escaping the Land of Cheese with a win is impossible. The best team doesn’t always win, especially if the best player that day levels the playing field.
The Packers have Aaron Rodgers, and it’s tough to argue there’s a better player suiting up for either team. So, containing him is step No. 1. But that’s not exactly a brilliant revelation – everyone knows that already.
But if that’s the first step, the Broncos are one team that’s actually equipped to curb Rodgers’ performance. Denver has a solid secondary and what was supposed to be the NFL’s best pass rushing duo in Bradley Chubb and Von Miller. Chubb has been good thus far; Miller has been noticably absent. Through two games, Miller has zero sacks, zero quarterback hits, zero tackles for loss and just five solo tackles. By comparison, Miller opened last season with four sacks, five quarterback hits, four tackles for loss and seven solo tackles. He also had two forced fumbles.
With 22 players on the field at once, it’s somewhat unfair to make a direct correlation, but last season, with two dynamic performances from Miller, the Broncos began 2-0. This year, with Miller being a no-show thus far, the team is 0-2.
Still, it’s not as if defense is the reason the Broncos are losing. In fact, through two games, this year’s defense has given up fewer points than last year’s (40 points against currently, 43 in 2018). Whether Miller has shined or not, the defense overall has been good enough to win.
The offensive production has been as M.I.A. as Miller has been statistically. Offensively, the Broncos have managed to put up a measly 15 points per game and have been atrocious in the red zone. Last year, behind Case Keenum, the Broncos were no juggernaut, but by this time in 2018, the Broncos had already scored 17 more total points.
Why?
Joe Flacco has been decent. Not dynamic, but serviceable. In fact, he’s been better than Keenum was. In his two losses as a Bronco, Flacco has thrown for 560 yards, two touchdowns and one interception; his completion percentage has been a solid 69 percent. In Keenum’s 2-0 start last season, he was 44-74 (59 percent) for 551 yards. He did toss three touchdowns, but also threw four interceptions.
While Miller has taken some heat of late for his performance this season, Phillip Lindsay has been quietly unproductive as well.
Through two games, Lindsay has had the exact same number of offensive touches this season as he did last (16 touches per game). But the production has fallen off significantly. Last year served as Lindsay’s coming out party. The Broncos’ two opening wins could practically be credited to Lindsay, who was stellar in both. In the opener, the rookie tallied 71 yards on the ground, 31 through the air and one 29-yard touchdown reception that was worthy of SportsCenter. In the next game, he boasted a handy 7.64 yards per carry en route to 107 total rushing yards.
This season has been an entirely different story though. With the same number of touches, Lindsay has produced just 79 rushing yards and 53 receiving yards and has yet to find the endzone. His 3.29 yards per carry in 2019 pales in comparison to last year’s 6.14 (through two games) and 5.4 (over the entire season). Last season, Lindsay was an unexpected X-factor, an indisputable difference maker.
In sum, the production of both Miller and Lindsay has dropped significantly.
And to beat the Packers, Denver desperately needs the only two Broncos voted as Pro-Bowlers last season to show up at Lambeau.
But here’s the kielbasa question of the day: Have Miller and Lindsay lost something, or are they lost in the Broncos gameplan?
In other words, have two, extraordinarily talented players fallen off, or has the Broncos new coaching staff been misusing them? Has Vic Fangio, a defensive guru throughout his career, not gotten the most out of Miller (like he did with Kahlil Mack in Chicago last season)? Is Rich Scangarello truly ready to run an NFL offense?
If the Broncos have any shot to win in Green Bay, they’ll need a Herculean performance out of their two most-dynamic players. If the Broncos are to beat the Packers, their first-year, 61-year-old head coach must find a way to get production from Von Miller, and their first-time offensive coordinator must find a way to get Phillip Lindsay loose.
If those two things happen, anything is possible at Lambeau.