Emmanuel Mudiay has only played 78 games of NBA basketball, but we’re already entering a critical juncture of his career.
Right now, the Nuggets’ point guard of the future doesn’t need to improve; he needs to rebuild himself. It’s bad. Real bad. So bad that I’m beginning to wonder if it could be any worse.
Simply put, Mudiay might be the worst player in the NBA right now, and while that sounds like a cruel exaggeration (even I’m cringing), it’s not. Not only is he shooting a miserable 34 percent from the field — it would be 30 percent without that 24-point-first-quarter Celtics game — but he’s fourth in the league in turnovers per game (4.6) and has seen his assist numbers drop by more than two from last season.
And somehow, the eye test is even worse.
The kid looks shook.
I’m not sure if he could pass a layup test on a high school basketball team, let alone convert at the rim against NBA defenders. He’s driving to the rim over 10 times a game (a good thing), but he’s only converting on 36.7 percent of those attempts (a very bad thing). Of the 57 players averaging at least five drives per game, Mudiay has the 46th-worst field goal percentage.
That’s not what you want to see from your 6-foot-5, 200 pound point guard.
I’m not lying when I say that I’ve never seen a basketball player that I’ve felt less confident about taking a shot within one foot of the basket. I legitimately become ecstatic when he makes a rudimentary layup, and that’s not a good sign.
When people talk about Mudiay — when people criticize Mudiay — the conversation starts with his jump shot, but that’s the least of his worries. Contrary to what Stephen Curry may lead you to believe, Mudiay doesn’t need a three-point shot to be an elite point guard in today’s league; Russell Westbrook is a career 30 percent three-point shooter and Derrick Rose only hit 33 percent of his threes during his MVP season.
What Mudiay does need to do to be an elite point guard — heck, even a starting-caliber point guard — is finish at the rim. And the fact that he can’t right now, is one of basketball’s greatest mysteries.
Again, the kid is a physical specimen. He is an athletic freak. There’s no reason he shouldn’t be one of the game’s best finishers. Just look at this pre-draft workout video and tell me Mudiay can’t get up.
His head is almost at the rim!
And yet, through 10 games, he has one dunk — he had just 14 all of last season.
It doesn’t compute …
It does not make sense that Mudiay attacks the rim with as much authority as I would, and I can promise you that my head doesn’t almost reach the rim.
In some ways, it scares the heck out of me. In others, it gives me hope.
If Mudiay can figure it out — and it certainly isn’t an impossible thing to hope for — he’ll immediately become an infinitely more effective player. Until then, though, he’ll be hurting the Nuggets on a nightly basis.
That’s why Michael Malone needs to sit him down, not as a punishment but as a much-needed break.
Last year started off much the same way for Mudiay, and he received that break in the form of an injury, which caused him to miss nearly a month in December and January. In that time, he healed, both mentally and physically, and came back a different player.
Pre-Injury: 10.7 points (31% field goal; 25% three point); 3.5 rebounds; 5.7 assists; 4.0 turnovers
Post-Injury: 14.6 points (39% field goal; 35% three point); 3.5 rebounds; 5.6 assists; 2.9 turnovers
Can you attribute all of Mudiay’s dramatic improvement in shooting efficiency and turnovers to that month-long hiatus? No, but I’m sure it helped. Being asked to lead a franchise at such a young age, at such an important position, is extremely difficult, and sometimes some perspective can be the best thing possible.
Right now Mudiay is shooting 34 percent from the field, lower than the 36 percent he shot during his rookie season; he’s turning the ball over 4.6 times per game, a good deal worse than that pre-injury stretch; and, possibly most concerning of all, he’s seen his assist numbers drop from 5.5 to 3.2 a game.
It’s a tough decision — and really, one you don’t want to be forced into making at this point in his development — but Malone needs to sit Mudiay down, let him gather himself and regain some confidence.
Mudiay’s career truly is at a crossroads. If he keeps going down the path he’s on, it won’t end well, for him or the Nuggets. If he can learn to use the natural talents he does posses, though, the sky truly is the limit, and I’m not giving up hope yet.
We saw the kid improve tremendously last season, and he needs to do the same this season — quickly.