Like it or not, comparing young players or prospects to known commodities is a trap we all fall into. It’s a reasonable way to determine the ceiling of players that are still developing. But, those comparisons can be dangerous.
LeBron James was never going to be the next Michael Jordan; their skill sets (and body frames) are totally different. Karl-Anthony Towns is not going to be the next Bill Russell (or as John Wooden called him “the greatest defensive man I’ve ever seen”). And, not every European prospect is the next Dirk Nowitzki.
There are comparisons that hold true, however. Kobe Bryant and Jordan. Steve Nash and Pete Maravich.
In Emmanuel Mudiay, the Denver Nuggets have found the next John Wall.
Determining Mudiay’s ceiling is tough for a couple reasons. 1) There is very little in the way of game film. Prior to his NBA debut he’d only played in 12 games over the last year, all of them in China. 2) He is really, really young; Mudiay turned 19 on March 5.
That said, the similarities between Mudiay and Wall are uncanny.
Most obvious is their size and body type. Very little separates them when the tale of the tape is told. Mudiay is 6-foot-5, 200 pounds; Wall is 6-foot-4, 195 pounds. Both have immense strength on and off the ball. And both have excellent court vision and playmaking ability.
Coming out of Kentucky, Wall’s explosiveness and playmaking ability were unquestioned. The 19-year-old Wildcat dominated college basketball with his blazing speed and knack for finding open teammates. Mudiay’s skill set is very similar.
When Wall is on the floor, no one wonders who is the fastest guy out there; this goes for Mudiay as well. Their baseline-to-baseline speed provides instant offense and allows them to jump into passing lanes on the defensive side of the floor. As they say, speed kills and it creates havoc for opposing teams.
Consistent shooting is another story with these two.
While Washington never hesitated taking Wall first overall in 2010, everyone knew his jumper was a work in progress. During his rookie season, he struggled from the floor, only shooting 40 percent. But each year since Wall has improved his shooting percentage, knocking down a career-best 45 percent of his shots last season.
Early in his career Wall struggled with his shot selection and was indecisive. Mudiay is suffering from the same problems.
Through four games, Denver’s 19-year-old phenom is shooting just 30 percent from the field. Mudiay has shot the Nuggets out of games (his performance against the Thunder is a perfect example of that). With time, he’ll correct that.
Hesitation is the biggest hurdle Mudiay needs to overcome. He is turning uncontested 15-footers into contested 15-footers. He simply isn’t pulling the trigger fast enough. Luckily for the Nuggets, that is a coachable problem. Mudiay’s feel for when and when not to shoot will come with time, just as Wall’s did. Practice will make perfect when it comes to Mudiay’s decisiveness.
Mudiay can also be the recruiter Denver needs, as Wall is in Washington. Superstars want to play with superstars.
It’s an oversimplification to say NBA free agents view Denver as a flyover city. No one wanted to play in Washington either. That was before they landed a star point guard. Wall changed the identity of the Wizards, making Washington an attractive place to play; Mudiay can do the same in Denver.
Size, speed, vision, struggles shooting early in their careers… the parallels between Wall and Mudiay go on and on.
Comparisons can be risky. They can be completely off base or push overinflated expectations on players not ready for them, ruining their development (see: Telfair, Sebastian).
There’s no overinflating that Mudiay has the skill set to become a top-five point guard in the NBA. And don’t think that expectations will crush the 19-year-old; he is much more mature than everyone anticipated.
If Mudiay becomes a star, it’ll be because he worked as hard as Wall. Mudiay has been described as the hardest working player in the gym, so maybe if isn’t the proper word.
When Emmanuel Mudiay becomes a superstar he’ll remind everyone of the Wizard’s star.