For the Denver Broncos and Pittsburgh Steelers, Sunday’s matchup is huge. In the Broncos’ case, a win could solidify their chances at the No. 2 seed, while a loss would leave them in a position where they’re forced to fend off the AFC West title from the Kansas City Chiefs in the season’s final two weeks. For the Steelers, this game could go a long ways towards deciding their Wild Card fate.
While the rest of America will be tuning in to see how one of the NFL’s most high-powered offenses stacks up against the league’s best defense, fans in Denver and Pittsburgh will be biting their nails as their seasons hang in the balance. This game may not have the same level of importance as a playoff matchup, but it’s about as close as you can get.
And what makes this game all the more interesting is that nobody really knows what’s going to happen. Of course, that’s the case with all football games, but with this game, everything really is up in the air. What does happen when two immovable objects collide? Because from what we’ve seen, that’s what Pittsburgh’s offense and Denver’s defense have been.
All of which means that we are most definitely in need of some bold predictions:
Antonio Brown is held to under 50 yards
In my book, Antonio Brown is the best wide receiver in the NFL. Not only does he possess other-worldly speed, but he’s easily the most versatile receiver in the league, able to run any route from any position on anybody.
That said, as I detailed yesterday, he’s about to meet his kryptonite.
Chris Harris Jr. is one of the league’s truly elite corners for the same reason Brown is one of the league’s most dynamic wide receivers: Versatility. Like Brown, Harris can lineup anywhere on the field, cover any type of route and shut down any wideout; he played safety in college, slot through his first two seasons in the NFL and is now a lock-down corner on the outside.
If you’re going to beat Chris Harris, you better come with something new, because he knows every trick in the book.
Now, it’s impossible to completely shut down Antonio Brown — he’s one of the greatest receivers we may have ever seen — but it is possible to limit him, especially when, I believe, Ben Roethlisberger‘s No. 1 target on Sunday will be Martavis Bryant.
Bryant, like Brown, is one of the fastest wideouts in the NFL, and the Steelers are sure to use that to their advantage when he is locked up on the outside with Aqib Talib. If there’s one place Pittsburgh can succeed against the Denver defense, it’s there.
Demaryius Thomas will have 10 receptions, 100 yards and two touchdowns
It’s been easy to bash Demaryius Thomas over the last few weeks, but on Sunday, he’ll redeem himself in a big way.
As I detailed earlier this week, despite the drops, DT is still one of the game’s elite wide receivers, on pace for 108 receptions, 1,313 yards and four touchdowns; that would likely go down as one of the five-best receiving seasons in franchise history. Not to mention, he’s been doing it all with the worst quarterbacking he’s seen since Tim Tebow.
The truth is that if it wasn’t for the drops, we’d still be talking about DT as if he was a top-five wideout in the NFL; he’s that talented.
And against the Steelers this weekend, he’ll get every opportunity to prove himself. According to Football Outsiders’ DVOA rankings, the Steelers are the sixth worst team in football when it comes to No. 1 wide receivers, allowing over 10 receptions and nearly 90 yards a game. In their last six games, here are some of the receiving numbers they’ve allowed:
A.J. Green: 6 receptions; 132 yards; 1 touchdown
Doug Baldwin: 6 receptions; 145 yards; 3 touchdowns
Travis Benjamin: 7 receptions; 113 yards; 0 touchdowns
Michael Crabtree: 7 receptions; 108 yards; 2 touchdowns
Amari Cooper: 7 receptions; 88 yards; 1 touchdown
A.J. Green: 11 receptions; 118 yards; 1 touchdown
In fact, the only game in which they didn’t allow a receiver to reach 100 yards receiving was against the Indianapolis Colts, where the combination of Matt Hasselbeck and Charlie Whitehurst only threw for 186 yards in total.
Demaryius Thomas is just as good as those receivers above, if not better in some cases, and I expect him to have a monster performance; he’s motivated and ready to prove his doubters wrong.
Danny Trevathan gets a pick six
The Pittsburgh Steelers use the NFL’s version of the spray-and-pray technique; Big Ben keeps chucking the ball down the field, and the Steelers hope Antonio Brown or Martavis Bryant come down with the catch, which they do more often than not.
But against this Denver defense, they may have to alter their mentality.
There’s one thing that’s absolutely crucial to a vertical passing attack: Time. If the Steelers’ offensive line can’t give Big Ben the time he needs to find Brown and Bryant open down the field, they can’t go down the field. It’s that simple.
And when you’re facing this Broncos pass rush, time is something you’re rarely given. Between Von Miller, DeMarcus Ware, Shane Ray, Shaquil Barrett, Derek Wolfe, Malik Jackson and whatever other member of the Broncos defense Wade Phillips decides to send on a blitz, I have no doubt Denver will be able to get to the quarterback, quickly.
That means that Big Ben is going to have to often resort to a shorter passing attack, which means a heavy dose of DeAngelo Williams and Heath Miller. In that scenario, Danny Trevathan will be forced into coverage duties, a skill he is most adept at.
In just his two full seasons as a starter (not including his injury-riddled 2014 campaign), Trevathan has five interceptions from the linebacker position, including the one he returned for a touchdown two weeks ago.
Philip Rivers wanted to throw it to Antonio Gates.
Danny Trevathan had other ideas.
Pick-Six! #DENvsSD https://t.co/SHINqs28x4— NFL (@NFL) December 6, 2015
Pro Football Focus has Trevathan graded as their eight-best coverage linebacker, and he’ll prove it this weekend with the second pick-six of his career.
The Broncos offensive line won’t give up a sack
Now this is a bold prediction.
All season, the Broncos offensive line has only given up zero sacks twice, against the Cleveland Browns and Green Bay Packers. Since Brock Osweiler has come in as the starter, though, they’ve given up an average of 3.5 a game, including their five-sack disaster against the Raiders last week. So predicting that they’ll leave Week 15 with a clean slate isn’t exactly a sure thing, but I believe it’s possible.
For one, it’s hard to imagine that they can play worse; more importantly, it’s hard to imagine Gary Kubiak will let them play worse. Part of what was so frustrating about last week’s game was that not only did he not give Michael Schofield even the slightest amount of help against Khalil Mack, but he kept putting Osweiler in a position to get hit, dropping him back 56 times in a one score game; neither of those are acceptable.
The Broncos offensive line is bad, and at this point in the season, there’s no changing that. But what Kubiak can do, is develop a game plan that can succeed in spite of their line.
Not only do I expect the Broncos to run the ball much more, but I expect Osweiler to be put in a position to succeed through short, quick passes. Don’t be surprised if that bubble screen to Demaryius Thomas makes it’s long-awaited reappearance.
The other factor playing into this prediction is pride. It’s not something I can exactly count on, but at some point, this offensive line has to stand up and play the game of their life. These guys have been facing constant criticism all week — all year, really — and I’m sure they want to prove that they’re not the weak link of this team just as much as we do.
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[adrotate banner=”10″]Brock Osweiler plays well enough to win but not well enough to keep his job
This is an important game for a lot of people, but none more so than Brock Osweiler, who’s job as the starter may be on the line.
With Peyton Manning finally making his reappearance on the practice field this week, the Broncos “quarterback controversy” is about to hit red alert, as Denver seems to be split down the middle when it comes to who should be the starter. And unless Osweiler has an absolutely outstanding performance, I have a hard time believing that John Elway and Gary Kubiak won’t put the future Hall of Famer back into the starting lineup, even if they’re split on the decision themselves.
Throughout this whole process, all anybody from inside the organization has said is that Manning is the Broncos’ quarterback, and he’ll return when he’s healthy; now that he’s healthy (or close to it), it’s going to take some awfully big balls to change their minds now.
And I actually do believe that Osweiler will have the best game of his young career against the Steelers; I believe that he, with a good deal of help from his defense, will lead the Broncos to a win and look good doing so. Still, I don’t think it’ll be enough; there’s just too much capital invested in Manning already to not give him one last go-round.