The 2024-25 NBA Season starts tomorrow. The Boston Celtics will raise a banner and receive their championship rings, just like the Denver Nuggets did a season before. It’s a special moment, but 29 other franchises will desperately hope the ceremonies move with haste. Because the sooner the Celtics are done celebrating, the closer every NBA fan is to seeing their favorite team for the first time.
The beginning of the season often brings hope. For some NBA fans, this will be the happiest moment of the upcoming season. Nuggets fans are hoping for a much longer celebration, but that’s for another article entirely.
For now, let’s discuss the NBA at-large. Here are some takes I have about the rest of the NBA and how some of them might affect the Nuggets this year:
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander wins MVP
Obviously, Nikola Jokic won last year, and to predict any other player in the NBA wins the award almost seems blasphemous. If there’s a worthy candidate this upcoming season though, it will be Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. He’s on an absolutely stacked roster, but unlike Jayson Tatum and the Boston Celtics, the gap between SGA and the second best player on the roster remains massive. The Thunder might win 60+ games due to their depth, but it’s their star power and the effect of SGA that makes them true contenders.
Other MVP candidates will certainly make a bid. Jokic is a shoo-in for a close finish. Ditto for Luka Doncic if he stays healthy for 65+ games again. Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks are due for a reminder season. Perhaps a mystery candidate like Victor Wembanyama (gasp!) emerges.
For now, I feel comfortable declaring SGA an excellent candidate for the award.
The Dallas Mavericks improve while Klay Thompson regresses
Last year at the trade deadline, the Mavericks remade their rotation and did a great job, adding PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford for additional size and structure in the frontcourt. During the offseason, they added all three of Klay Thompson, Naji Marshall, and Quentin Grimes (don’t sleep on Grimes) for improved wing depth and versatility. Dereck Lively II was a rookie center last season and will be vastly improved in most areas. Now all that remains is for Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving to take advantage of the improved roster.
I think the Mavericks win 52+ games this year. Last year, they won 50. It’s possible that I’m even underselling them. I don’t think their improved ceiling comes from Klay Thompson though. He actually helps their floor, spacing the floor as a consistent outside shooter for everyone else to operate. He’s effectively replacing Tim Hardaway Jr. in the rotation. That’s an upgrade, even if I think the regression for Thompson is real and he won’t be able to do as much overall.
Six Eastern Conference teams fail to surpass 30 wins
This is where the difference between the Western and Eastern Conference gets annoying for West teams. I currently have 13 West teams projected for at least 30 wins and 11 teams with 40 wins. By comparison, I have just nine teams cracking 30 wins in the East. The six teams that don’t: Chicago Bulls, Charlotte Hornets, Detroit Pistons, Toronto Raptors, Washington Wizards, and Brooklyn Nets.
One of those teams will probably crack 30 wins. Predicting who ends up doing so is a fool’s errand though. The star power across those six teams is extremely lacking, and the depth is even worse. The biggest culprit for why those teams will struggle is often health. Look no further than the Hornets with LaMelo Ball struggling to stay on the floor.
Picking any of those six teams to be decent is just not something I’m going to do.
The Boston Celtics don’t make it back to the NBA Finals
This is perhaps the prediction I think is least likely to come true. Looking at the Eastern Conference now, there are so many “gimme” games for the Celtics to accumulate wins that they probably won’t have to play their starters a high number of minutes in the regular season. There are other East contenders, but they all have questions involving new additions and questionable supporting casts.
Still, it’s really hard to repeat in the NBA right now. The Nuggets found out firsthand last year that other teams give you their best shot when you win the title the year before. It’s not really a problem in individual games, but the overall wear and tear of the experience is exhausting.
The Celtics are a smart, well-run organization and will have their team prepared for those outcomes; but if one of their top four perimeter guys misses an extended period of time, it just adds to the stress. Combine that with other teams game planning almost exclusively for the Celtics in the playoffs, and there will be some team that knocks them out prematurely. And after seeing up close and personal how difficult last year was for Denver, there’s no shame in not repeating.
The Golden State Warriors miss the Play-In Game entirely
With the loss of Klay Thompson (and it is a loss, no matter what anybody says) the Warriors are trying to rediscover their identity. There was a season like this in 2020-21, the year before the Warriors won the title. Back then, Stephen Curry put together an MVP caliber season, Draymond Green was elite as a playmaker on both ends of the floor, and Andrew Wiggins stepped up as an innings eater to get them through the year.
Are those versions of Curry, Green, and Wiggins still available? They’re all going to be four years older, and while the young talent around them is pretty solid with Jonathan Kuminga and Brandin Podziemski, asking the veterans to do what they once did isn’t smart. I like some of the veterans they have in De’Anthony Melton and Buddy Hield, but the questions around Golden State are fair.
I think they fall behind in the West and lose out barely to an upstart Houston Rockets squad with several talented prospects and high energy rotation players. It will be close until the final day of the season, but Houston will get it done.