His whole career, Gary Kubiak has built his teams around the run game. Since his first stint in Denver and on through his many years in Houston, the one-cut-and-go running back has been a staple of the Kubiak offense.
In fact, since getting his first coordinating position with the Broncos back in 1995, Kubiak has sported a top-10 rushing attack in 13 of his 21 seasons. So you can imagine that he’ll want to improve on the Broncos’ 17th-ranked run game next season.
But how?
Well, free agency’s a start, but how many resources can they devote to that? Working off the assumption that they bring C.J. Anderson back — a restricted free agent, that’s a good guarantee — probably not much. If Anderson is back in 2016, he’ll be the Broncos No. 1 back; at worst, he’ll be a option 1B.
That pretty much takes guys like Matt Forte and Doug Martin out of the equation, unless they’re willing to take a lot less for a Super Bowl opportunity.
So aside from them, who makes sense?
Here are five running backs the Denver Broncos could be taking a look at in free agency:
5. Chris Ivory
There’s a 90 percent chance the Chris Ivory is going to demand more money than the Broncos are willing to spend, but if there’s one Pro Bowl running back the Broncos could potentially bring into the fold, it’s Chris Ivory.
When healthy, Ivory has been a very, very good back in the NFL, average 4.6 yards per carry during his career. The health, though, is a real issue. While the 220-pound back has only missed two games in his last three years, he’s been banged up many more than that, and it’s impacted his performance on the field. After averaging 4.3 and 5.4 yards per carry in September and October, respectively, Ivory’s production dipped to below 4 yards a carry in November and December after the constant pounding he was taking caught up to him.
Even as a second and third option in New Orleans, where he spent the first three years of his career, Ivory was prone to injury; it doesn’t seem to be the workload but the bruising style that wears him down.
According to Spotrac.com, Ivory’s market value is $4.1 million a year, and in my estimation, that’s far too much for a No. 2 or No. 1B back, especially with so many other pressing priorities. If he were to come down, though, and settle in somewhere around $2.5 million, forgoing the extra cash in exchange for a title run, it might work.
It’s probably a long shot, but it’s worth a call — maybe a text.
4. Alfred Morris
I’m not exactly sure what to make of Alfred Morris. Is he good? Was he a product of the system? Did he luck into success?
Four years ago, he ran for 1,600 yards and 13 touchdowns as a rookie for the Redskins, but those numbers have dipped each and every season since, culminating in a disappointing 751-yard, one-touchdown campaign in 2015.
On one hand, it looks like he’s washed up; it looks like the tread has long worn off the tires. On the other hand, I wonder if this might be the time to by low on Alfred Morris; his stock has never been lower than it is right now.
Heck, even when Morris was clearly one of the best backs in the NFL, his stock was never that high. Since the day he entered the league as a sixth-round draft pick, even when he was averaging nearly 5 yards a carry, Morris has gone under the radar. Maybe that plays in the Broncos’ favor.
He may be coming off the worst season of his career, and he may have a lot of miles under his belt, but Morris is still just 27 years old. As a 1B to C.J. Anderson’s 1A, that could be a pretty intimidation tandem.
Not to mention, Morris’ best years came under Mike Shanahan, who’s offense is very similar to Gary Kubiak’s.
3. James Starks
Calling James Starks the best backup running back in the NFL is somewhat of a backhanded complement, but that’s exactly what he is. And I’m sure he’d perform just fine in that role for the Denver Broncos, too.
Since helping the Packers win the Super Bowl in 2010 as a rookie, Starks has only tallied nine starts in his career, four of which came last season. In that time, though, he has been very effective in a relief role, averaging 4.3 yards a carry for his career. And despite turning 29 last season, Starks was able to put up his best numbers yet:
148 rushing attempts; 601 rushing yards; 43 receptions; 392 receiving yards; 5 total touchdowns (all of which were career highs)
And while that would normally be enough to earn Starks a nice-sized contract, he is, once again, verging on 30, an ominous age for running backs. I wouldn’t be surprised if that stunts his market value.
For the Broncos, though, I wouldn’t be all too concerned about the wear and tear on Stark’s wheels. Unlike most 30-year-old running backs, Starks should have plenty of miles left in the tank; he’s only topped 100 carries twice.
If the Broncos are looking to bring in a backup this offseason, he could be there guy.
2. Lamar Miller
If the Broncos are going to go all in on improving their offense — and I mean all in — then I’d go all in on Lamar Miller. Of course, this would most likely mean letting C.J. Anderson, a restricted free agent, walk, which I don’t see them doing, but it’s an interesting thought, at least.
To me, Miller is one of the most underrated running backs in the NFL. Since entering the league, he’s averaged 4.6 yards per carry and yet the Miami Dolphins have never been able to find a way to use him correctly.
Despite rushing for 5.1 yards per carry in 2014 for 1,099 yards and eight touchdowns, there were seven instances in 2016 where Miller received 10 carries or less; that’s far too many. Miller should be a 15-carry-a-week guy, at minimum, in this league, and if the Broncos want to make him their workhorse, then it may be worth handing him the $4-5 million he’ll demand on the open market.
Plus, he’s only 24!
Even in a league where running back lifespans are getting shorter and shorter, the Broncos would be investing in a guy who could still have five or six great years in him. That makes a hefty paycheck a little more bearable.
Again, though, I highly doubt this happens. Anderson seems to be the Broncos’ guy, and rightfully so. The only worry I have, though, is whether he can stay healthy; that’s something we’ve yet to see for a full season.
1. Ronnie Hillman
Just like the free agent quarterback preview, the guy at the top of this list is a familiar face, and why wouldn’t it be? Wouldn’t you rather ride with the horse you know than the one you don’t?
And the truth is that Ronnie Hillman has been good for the Broncos. I don’t think he’s a No. 1 back, but as a the dash to C.J. Anderson’s bash, it works. Really, when you look at the numbers from last season, they’re fairly impressive, especially when you consider how poor Denver’s offense looked at times:
4.2 yards per carry; 863 yards rushing; 7 touchdowns (all career highs)
My only issue with Ronnie, isn’t so much an issue with him but with the coaching staff. He needs to be the No. 2 back. He needs to complement Anderson’s bruising style. When Hillman’s getting the majority of the carries, which he did for most of the season, he loses his effectiveness; defenders quickly understand that he’s going to bounce every run to the outside.
But if Anderson pounds them up the middle first, then maybe Hillman’s speed around the edge becomes all the more effective.
With all that said, my guess is that the Broncos don’t sign anybody in free agency other than Anderson, giving Juwan Thompson and Kapri Bibbs the opportunity to fight it out in training camp for the No. 2 role, along with whatever back they draft in the late rounds.
Either way, this should be Anderson’s team next year.