At this point, there’s no question; the Broncos will be drafting a quarterback this offseason, and that quarterback could very likely come at pick 31 of the first round. The question, though, is who?
Carson Wentz and Jared Goff may be the big names, but unless John Elway is wiling to give up the farm, his soul and the franchise’s future, there’s no way the Broncos are moving up high enough in the draft to bring one of those elite talents home. Instead, they’ll have to make do with a project and hope they pan out sooner than later.
And that’s the important thing to note about all of these guys: They’re projects. They should not be starting come Week 1 of the 2016 season. Whether it’s Mark Sanchez or someone else, the Broncos need a buffer; they need a bridge quarterback.
With that said, depending on whom that “bridge quarterback” is, where the Broncos draft a signal caller could change dramatically. If it is Sanchez, then maybe Elway forces a pick at No. 31. Maybe he feels the need to get someone who at least has the opportunity to start at some point next season. If that quarterback is Colin Kaepernick or Ryan Fitzpatrick, though, then maybe Elway feels comfortable waiting until the third our fourth round to draft a guy that could eventually take over in the next two or three years, not unlike Brock Osweiler.
Here are five quarterbacks the Denver Broncos could be targeting and what it would take to get them:
5. Cardale Jones
EXPERIENCE: Junior
PROJECTED ROUND: 4th/5th HEIGHT/WEIGHT: 6-5/253 LBS
CAREER NUMBERS: 61.7% completion; 2,322 yards passing; 15 passing TDs; 7 INTs; 617 yards rushing; 4 rushing TDs
You want to talk about upside? Then you want to talk about Cardale Jones.
You want to talk about risk? Well, then you also want to talk about Cardale Jones.
This is a guy who who has all the natural ability you could ask for. He’s also a guy who couldn’t work his way past third on the depth chart until the rest of Ohio State’s quarterbacks got injured in 2014.
This is a guy who carried the Buckeyes to a National Championship behind three of the most electrifying post-season performances we’ve seen in a long time. He’s also a guy who lost his starting job the very next season.
Cardale Jones is a walking conundrum. For every undeniable positive, there’s an overwhelming negative. If he’s going to ever become a starting quarterback in the NFL, he’s going to have to learn how to do a lot more than throw the ball hard; he’s going to have to learn how to read defense, throw a receiver open and limit mistakes. That’s no small task.
If the Broncos were to draft Jones in the mid rounds of the 2016 NFL Draft, they’d be doing so with the intention of letting him sit and study under Gary Kubiak for the next two to three seasons. If he puts his nose to the grind and matches his mental ability with his physical prowess, he could end up being the steal of the draft.
Either that or we never hear from him again. Both options are about as likely.
4. Connor Cook
EXPERIENCE: Senior
PROJECTED ROUND: 1st/2nd HEIGHT/WEIGHT: 6-4/217 LBS
CAREER NUMBERS: 57.5% completion; 9,194 yards passing; 71 passing TDs; 22 INTs; 209 yards rushing; 3 rushing TDs
Connor Cook often looks the part of a top-tier quarterback, but there are enough question marks surrounding his talent and character that NFL teams have reason to be worried. This is a guy that likely would have been a top 10-15 pick had he come out after his Junior season, and yet he wasn’t even voted team captain heading into his Senior year. To many, that comes across as a major red flag.
When you’re the four-year quarterback of a top-10 program, you’re the team captain, every time. That’s just how it is. But not with Cook. And the concerns don’t stop there.
Cook, reportedly, has a “different” personality, making it hard for teammates and coaches to get along with him on and off the field. His awkward interaction with Archie Griffin following the Big Ten title game, and his decision to skip out on the Senior Bowl, did not help.
If Cook can put all the little things together, he could be a long-term option for a franchise. But if he can’t handle the pressure when he’s the No. 1 option on one of the best teams in the nation, how is he going to handle being a backup as a young player?
3. Christian Hackenberg
EXPERIENCE: Junior
PROJECTED ROUND: 2nd/3rd HEIGHT/WEIGHT: 6-4/223 LBS
CAREER NUMBERS: 56.1% completion; 8,457 yards passing; 48 passing TDs; 31 INTs; -242 yards rushing; 6 rushing TDs
Before we go any further, no, that is not a typo; Christian Hackenberg did score six career rushing touchdowns on -242 yards rushing. How? Well, he was sacked an absurd amount of times, and that basically sums up Hackenberg’s final two seasons at Penn State: His team did almost nothing to make his life easier.
And that’s not to say that Hackenberg wasn’t without his faults. In fact, he’s got a laundry list of them. But if Joe Montana was playing behind the line Hackenberg was playing behind, he might have seen a drop off in production, too.
Now, across the board, Cook is seen as the better prospect, but for the Broncos, I think Hackenberg makes more sense for two reasons: (1) He’s likely to be available in the second round, whereas Elway most likely would have to select Cook with his first round pick, and (2) I believe his upside is significantly higher.
A few years ago, Hackenberg was a freshman sensation; he was, in the minds of most, a lock to be a top-five pick the moment he became eligible for the NFL. Even a year ago, most analysts would have been shocked to see the big quarterback from Penn State fall out of the first round. Now, he might be lucky to sneak into the second.
For Hackenberg, it may not be so much about developing as it is fixing. Right now, he’s a broken quarterback. He’s been thrown around so often that he doesn’t know which ways up. The moment pressure hits him, he cracks. A huge part of the blame deserves to be taken by him, but a significant portion falls on the coaching staff and surrounding talent, too — Hackenberg isn’t afraid to tell you that.
Like the two guys before him, there’s plenty of risk with Hackenberg. Still, if the Broncos are looking to hit a home run without mortgaging their future to move up in the draft, this might be their guy.
2. Dak Prescott
EXPERIENCE: Senior
PROJECTED ROUND: 3rd/4th HEIGHT/WEIGHT: 6-2/226 LBS
CAREER NUMBERS: 62.8% completion; 9,376 yards passing; 70 passing TDs; 23 INTs; 2,521 yards rushing; 41 rushing TDs
For all of you Denver diehards clamoring for the Broncos to bring back Tim Tebow, do I have the thing for you …
Dak Prescott!
Prescott provides many of the same things Tebow showed while back at Florida — mobility, leadership and composure — but this time around, he can actually throw a football.
Now, is he a polished pocket passer? Not at all. But he’s not broken, either. Not to mention, he’s shown a mental ability to understand and manipulate defenses in a way Tebow never could — at times, at least. While his calling card will likely always be his legs, the improvement he’s shown as a pure passer is impressive, and reason enough to take a chance.
More importantly, though, the Broncos have shown legitimate interest in Prescott. He’s not going to be a first- or second-round selection, but if the Broncos can pick him up in the late-third, early-forth round, he could be a nice value.
1. Paxton Lynch
EXPERIENCE: Junior
PROJECTED ROUND: 1st/2nd HEIGHT/WEIGHT: 6-7/244 LBS
CAREER NUMBERS: 62.9% completion; 8,865 yards passing; 59 passing TDs; 23 INTs; 687 yards rushing; 17 rushing TDs
Miss Brock Osweiler? Well meet Brock Osweiler 2.0.
At 6-foot-7, meet the more-athletic, better-experienced, stronger-armed Paxton Lynch.
Lynch was destined to fly under the radar playing at Memphis, but countless “splash” plays have brought him into the national spotlight. And if the draft had been held midseason, there’s a very good chance he could have been the first quarterback off the board — a top-15 pick at the worst.
That said, Lynch did see his production fall off down the homestretch of the 2015 season, and in the Tigers’ bowl game against Auburn, he looked nothing like a top-tier quarterback prospect, completing just 43 percent of his passes for 106 yards and an interception.
Still, if he’s not a first-round pick, he’s an early second, and that means he’s right in the Broncos’ wheelhouse. If he’s available at the 31st pick, I’m not sure how John Elway passes him up, especially if the only other quarterback on the roster is Mark Sanchez. And if he’s available at the 24th or 25th pick, I’m not sure how Elway doesn’t trade up to get him.
He’s got plenty of upside, and while he may need a good deal more grooming than guys like Carson Wentz and Jared Goff, he has the chance to be the long-term option in Denver.