With the Denver Nuggets offseason in full effect, the front office has now set out to dissect the upcoming NBA Draft and the vast amount of players that are set to hit the market as free agents this year.
And as the Nuggets go, so do all of us here at Mile High Sports.
So over the next month we will be going position by position and breaking down the top five draft choices and potential free agents and their fit in Denver.
Today we will be breaking down the small forward position. While the consensus top two picks in the 2016 NBA Draft are both small forwards who can play at the power forward spot as well, we have included Brandon Ingram and Ben Simmons into the small forward slot. The class is very top heavy but does have a strong role player type depth past the obvious first two choices.
Brandon Ingram, Duke
Age: 18 years old Size: 6’9, 195 pounds
Last Season’s Stats: 17.3 points; 6.8 rebounds; 2.0 assists
Percentages: 44.2% from the field; 41% from three-point; 68.2% from the free throw line
Brandon Ingram is the prospect every Nuggets fan should be clamoring for in this year’s NBA Draft. Ingram brings extreme length with a 7-foot-3 wingspan, elite athletic ability, lights-out shooting, a tireless work ethic and a physical nature not seen by someone of his body type outside of Kevin Durant. While he’s only 195 pounds, it is incredible how well he uses his frail frame. His biggest drawback may end up as his biggest strength.
It is no secret that Ingram is razorblade thin. While normally this would be an extremely troubling issue with a marquee prospect it has never inhibited Ingram from playing the way he wants. He imposes himself physically onto his opposition. He screams through the paint with reckless abandon and finishes through contact. Being that Ingram is still at the ridiculously young age of 18, he still has time to bulk up his body. If he can transform his body, he could become an absolute terror going to the rim.
Building off of his game going to the rim is how that opens up his deadliest weapon. Ingram finished off his freshman season at Duke shooting a scalding 41 percent from three-point distance on 5.4 attempts per game. His mechanics are sound and his release point is borderline un-blockable. If he bulks up and gets even better at going to the rim than he already is, it will be almost impossible to contain him offensively.
Defensively, he has the length and quickness to stick with guards and small forwards. While he is still not at peak strength he will have a tough time down low against stronger and stockier power forwards. With the right strength training and the work ethic to bulk up he has the defensive potential to guard positions 1-4 in time. His defensive ceiling gives him elite two-way player potential.
While there is almost no conceivable way he falls past the Los Angeles Lakers, who are selecting second, the Nuggets only real shot at landing Ingram is through trade. While reports have come out saying the Lakers plan on keeping the pick and taking either Simmons or Ingram, there are also conflicting reports saying the Lakers have discussed trading the pick. While it is almost always too costly to trade into the top three, the Nuggets need to at least see what it would take to get Brandon Ingram into the Mile High City. No other prospect fits better for what the Nuggets are trying to accomplish. Ingram is the vaccine to what ails the Denver Nuggets and Tim Connelly should be doing everything he can to get Ingram to Denver.
Ben Simmons, LSU
Age: 19 years old Size: 6’10, 240 pounds
Last Season’s Stats: 19.2 points; 11.9 rebounds; 4.8 assists
Percentages: 56% from the field, 33.1% from three (only three attempts); 67% from the free throw line
Ben Simmons is as non-traditional as a prospect gets. His game relies on transition opportunities, uncanny vision, creative passing and a low-post game that is slowly coming together. While his talent is unquestioned, it is how his skills translate to the NBA that will tell if he is the next superstar of the Association or if he is just another versatile “tweener” with ridiculous point guard abilities.
No one can deny the immense talent that is Ben Simmons. His vision is that of a hawk. He uses his comically large hands as cannons that hurl passes all around the court to whomever he pleases. His ball-handling skills, especially in transition, are superb for a player of his stature and size. He is able to find his teammates on the court like a bat using echolocation. His skillset is one that is rarely seen in the NBA.
While his proficiencies are many, so are his deficiencies. For as terrorizing as Simmons is in transition he has absolutely no jump shot. Simmons made 14-45 jump shots all year. Not only does he not take open shots but he blatantly avoids them. On top of that, he has a strange desire to avoid contact. For someone who is 6-foot-10 and 240 pounds as a 19 year old contact should be welcomed. This has led to his offensive game becoming predictable and easily scouted.
Simmons is also only an explosive leaper with a full head of steam. He struggles contesting shots at the rim and with his second jump ability. With only having a wingspan of 6-foot-11 he will never be a rim protector either. His red flags do not stop there. Simmons has been known as somewhat lazy and aloof on the court, especially on the defensive end. He rarely contests jumpers or shots at the rim. He does not fight for rebounds on either end of the floor and has been known to only want to make the “flashy” play. This has led to a 17 percent turnover rate. For a player who essentially quit on his team at LSU and only plays for himself it is extremely difficult for me to see him as a better prospect than Ingram.
Ben Simmons is not going to fall out of the top two. There is no denying that. He is not a player the Nuggets will have an opportunity to trade up and get either being that the 76ers have already put Nerlens Noel and Jahil Okafor on the trade block to make room for the enigmatic point forward. All signs point toward the mysterious Ben Simmons as the first pick in the draft.
Taurean Prince, Baylor
Age: 21 years old Size: 6’8, 220 pounds
Last Season’s Stats: 15.7 points; 6.0 rebounds; 2.3 assists
Percentages: 43.2% from the field; 36.1% from three-point; 77.4% from the free throw line
Taurean Prince would be the third option for a team looking for a small forward in this year’s NBA Draft. The former Baylor Bear is still only 21 and brings a high defensive ceiling and a good amount of explosion. His defensive instincts are off the chart and he uses his strong frame, coupled with his quick feet, to contain positions 1-3 on the perimeter. Prince is your prototypical “3-and-D” type player who brings a high basketball IQ, the ability to thrive in transition with his athleticism, and his ability to convert at the rim. His game resembles that of Thabo Sefolosha or, if he develops perfectly, DeMarre Carroll.
While Prince is a jack-of-all-trades on the offensive end, he is quite limited due to the fact that his ball handling skills leave a lot to be desired. He has the first step and explosion off of one foot to be a terror in the pick-and-roll but he struggles to use that quickness and explosion effectively with the ball in his hands. Due to his deficiencies with the ball, he does not create space well for himself. These issues have led to Prince forcing the issue to the tune of a 15.8 percent turnover rate. If he can clean up his ball handling he has the chance to change his trajectory from a “3-and-D” player to a potential third option.
Prince may have a brighter future in the NBA than a lot think. He has the vision, spot-up shooting, and defensive intensity to weave himself into the fabric of a team as a high-IQ, high-energy, versatile wing. He is slated to go around the mid-to-late teens on draft day and should be available at 15 for the Nuggets to decide on.
DeAndre Bembry, St. Joe’s
Age: 21 years old Size: 6’5, 205 pounds
Last Season’s Stats: 17.4 points; 7.8 rebounds; 4.5 assists
Percentages: 47.9% from the field; 26.6% from three-point; 65.7% from the free throw line
DeAndre Bembry is one of the most underrated prospects in the 2016 NBA Draft. He brings with him a 24.4 percent assist rate, second to only Denzel Valentine of Michigan State, coupled with an ability to score from almost anywhere on the court. He is an elite leaper, with a tireless motor. He acted as one of St. Joe’s primary ball handlers and has a solid grasp of playing in the pick-and-roll. He feasts on teams in transition and his ability to switch positions 1-3 on defense is almost as smooth as his Afro. His 6-foot-9 wingspan helps him poke away steals and recover on shooters.
While he has all of the ability to be a starting-caliber small forward, it will come down to how he develops mentally. Bembry has issues with his consistency on both sides of the ball. He shows flashes that he could take over on either side, but it is as streaky as his jump shot. When it comes to his mechanics, he tends to sway from keeping a constant and repeated motion. He will shoot on the way down on occasion and tends to fade to either side depending on where the defensive pressure is coming from. This has led to Bembry struggling from beyond the arc. If he can clean up his mechanics, he could add the three-point shot to his repertoire he could see his offensive game take off.
Bembry has been mocked to go anywhere from 188th to the start of the second round. Odds are the Denver Nuggets will have an opportunity to select Bembry with the 19th pick in the draft. He fits the mold of a hard worker and a defensively versatile wing that the Nuggets have so desperately needed when it comes to giving up points on the perimeter. I do not see Bembry as a big name the Nuggets are gunning for but his style of play and skillset does fit in Denver.
Perry Ellis, Kansas
Age: 22 years old Size: 6’8, 218 pounds
Last Season’s Stats: 17 points; 5.8 rebounds; 1.3 assists
Percentages: 53.2% from the field; 43.8% from three-point; 79.5% from the free throw line
Perry Ellis is a four-year player at the University of Kansas where he has been the focal point offensively for the past three seasons. While Ellis may be one of the more offensively complete players in the draft, it is his physical ability and quickness that will hold him back at the next level.
Ellis brings with him an added three-point shot, a fantastic post-game, face-up and back-to-the basket game, and he scores extremely efficiently from mid range, and plays with a high basketball IQ. He has polished his offensive game this past year into one of the most efficient scorers in College Basketball. He raised his true shooting percentage from 54 percent to 61 percent and is scoring 4.1 points better per 40 minutes from last year to this year. He has also gotten better equipped as a positional defender being that he does not have the physical gifts to out-muscle most players.
Ellis does have some serious question marks at the NBA level. While he has added a three-point shot, shot 43.8 percent on 1.7 attempts per game, is it up to par with the NBA three-point distance? He also has issues creating for himself and others at the college level, which does not bode well for his development outside of a post and midrange scorer.
While Ellis does have a nice offensive game, he is going to struggle to find his niche at the NBA level. He will not be able to cover small forwards or power forwards due to his lack of quickness and strength issues. He is largely a below-the-rim scorer and needs to learn how to handle the length of the NBA. Ellis is slated to go in the late first round and into the mid-second round. Ellis could be worth a flier at the start of the second round.