It’s not often that the No. 1 seed in the playoffs, a team that has reached the conference championship and won nearly every big game on their schedule, is considered an underdog at home, but that’s exactly what the Denver Broncos are.
The Denver Broncos, according to the football world, haven’t got a shot.
Prognosticators and analysts from every which media outlet have taken to the airwaves to bury the Broncos, Peyton Manning and their fans, days before the ball is set to be kicked off. And you know what? It makes sense.
The Patriots don’t just deserve to be favored this weekend; they deserve to be heavily favored. Not just because they’re the reigning Super Bowl champions, but because they’re the better team, right now. Even if Russell Wilson stopped by to give Peyton Manning every last ounce of his “miracle water,” No. 18 still wouldn’t be better than No. 12.
And, please, don’t give me, “Hey, idiot, the Broncos just beat the Patriots!,” because that means nothing. They were playing without Julian Edelman that week, and if you have any question of how big of a loss that was, look at this:
Patriots points per 60 minutes:
… with Julian Edelman: 33.62
… and without Edelman: 21.17
— Andrew Mason (@MaseDenver) January 20, 2016
Not to mention, when Edelman is on the field, the Patriots are undefeated.
Now, with all that said, the Broncos absolutely have a chance on Sunday, and anybody who tells you differently is simply ignorant. It’s just going to be the toughest challenge the Broncos have faced all season.
Here are five thing the Denver Broncos absolutely have to do if they’re going to beat the Patriots:
Win the turnover battle
Yes, obviously. But if the Broncos don’t win the turnover battle, the game might as well be over before it starts; Tom Brady and the Patriots won’t let an extra opportunity go to waste.
Unfortunately, winning the turnover battle is something the Broncos have not been known to do this season. In fact, despite generating the eighth most turnovers in the NFL, Denver is tied for 19th in the league with a turnover differential of -4. For comparison, no other playoff team had a turnover differential lower than +2, and the Patriots were fifth in the league with a differential of +7.
In fact, the Broncos have only finished a game without a turnover twice all season, against the Bears in Week 11 and against the Steelers last weekend.
Adversely, the Patriots’ 14 turnovers are lowest in the league, and they’ve only lost the turnover battle twice this season.
If the Broncos are going to force Brady into mistakes, they’ll need to be on their A-game from the first whistle to the last. Any which way you slice it, the Denver defense will have to make big-time plays if the Broncos are going to win.
Do the little things right
When the dust clears on Sunday, whether the Broncos win or lose, the topic of conversation will surround the “big” plays, those plays that generated points or occurred during the final two-minutes of the game; often, though, we’ll forget about the little plays that truly decided the outcome of the game.
A drop, a blown assignment, a miss-read; any one of those things could put the Broncos in a hole they won’t be able to climb out of.
The Broncos have to play a perfect game. Demaryius Thomas has to catch the football. Michael Schofield can’t let a free rusher take Manning’s head off. Emmanuel Sanders better not muff a kick.
Again, the Patriots won’t let an opportunity go to waste, and neither can the Broncos. Because when I talk about doing the little things right, that includes capitalizing on turnovers and field positioning, something they did not do last weekend.
If the Broncos settle for field goals early in the game, like they did versus the Chiefs and the Raiders, they’re not going to be sniffing the ocean breeze down in San Francisco; they’ll be cleaning out their lockers back at Dove Valley.
Succeed in zone coverage
Under Wade Phillips, the Broncos have been, almost exclusively, a man-to-man team. And it makes sense; Chris Harris Jr. and Aqib Talib, Denver’s two Pro Bowl corners, are man-to-man guys. But this weekend, against the Patriots, they’re going to have to switch things up.
If the Broncos stay in man all day, Tom Brady is going to take apart Denver’s secondary with as much precision and efficiency as one of Dr. James Andrew’s ACL surgeries. Between him, Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels, there’s no doubt in my mind that the Patriots will craft an arsenal of man-beating routes, and it all starts with Julian Edelman.
Guys like Julian Edelman may not be as flashy as Odell Beckham Jr. or Antonio Brown, but they’re an absolute nightmare to cover. And with a similar player in Danny Amendola on the other side of the field, as well as that monster they call Rob Gronkowski running up the seams, New England will call more crossing and pick plays than the Steve Nash Suns; even with the best corners on your side, those can be killer to cover.
Denver will need to play some zone if they’re going to stop Edelman and Amendola from running crossing routes all day, and they’ll need execute a lot better than they have in recent weeks.
As I pointed out earlier, the Broncos have had a good deal of trouble in zone coverage through the course of their last two games, starting with the 80-yard touchdown allowed to Tyrell Williams in Week 17 and continuing on with the numerous big plays given up to the Steelers last week.
As far as I can tell, though, it’s not that the Broncos aren’t capable of playing zone; it’s more like they’re just not exactly sure what they’re doing at times. These big, explosive plays haven’t been the result of getting beat; they’ve been the product of getting lost in space, giving too much cushion or simply taking the wrong guy.
They’ll need to get things in order by Sunday, if they want to stifle Brady’s options.
Run the Ball
I’ve said it a hundred times already, but I’m just going to keep on saying it until it breaks through Gary Kubiak‘s skull: RUN THE BALL!
If the Denver Broncos are going to accomplish anything this postseason, it’s not going to be because Peyton Manning has a renaissance game; it’s going to be because C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman rush the ball for 150 and two touchdowns, just as it’s been the case all season.
And the man who deserves the ball most is one Mr. C.J. Anderson, who’s been leading the league in rushing since the Broncos returned from their bye in Week 8. Unfortunately, for whatever reason, Gary Kubiak has refused to hand back the starting job to Anderson, who has been outperforming Hillman for months.
Anderson didn’t even get his first carry last week until the second quarter, where he then preceded to average nearly 5 yards an attempts and score the game-winning touchdown.
We’ve been saying it for awhile now, but the template to winning a Super Bowl is the same one Mike Shannahan and John Elway used back in ’97 and ’98: Run the ball and play defense. In fact, during those two title runs, Elway never equaled the 37 pass attempts Manning put up on Sunday; he threw for under 200 yards in four out of his seven postseason games, too.
Likewise, during that same run, Terrell Davis never once totaled less than 21 attempts in a game; he surpassed 30 in three out of the seven, including the Packers Super Bowl where he was suffering from a migraine headache.
And while the general consensus has been that the Broncos can’t mimic those championship teams — that this team can’t run the ball — that’s just not true. Denver can run the ball; they’re just not trying, or they’re giving it to the wrong back.
Anderson needs to be the Broncos’ workhorse, just like he was last year. Not just because he’s effective, but because they need it. The Broncos have to find a way to keep Tom Brady and the offense off the field, and the only way to do that is to stuff the ball down their throats.
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[adrotate banner=”16″]Pressure Brady
The New York Giants gave everybody the blueprint back in 2007-08, and it holds true today: The only way to truly get to Tom Brady is to hit him early and often.
Luckily, you’d have to believe the Broncos are about as qualified to do that as anyone; they did lead the league in sacks, after all.
But it does create an interesting question for Wade Philips: Does he bring the blitz, or does he hope that he can get to Brady with four? On the one hand, if you bring the blitz, you’re all but guaranteed to put Brady under pressure, but you open the door for his receivers to get open on short routes. On the other hand, if you lay back, Brady may have a more difficult time finding an open receiver, but he’ll have all day to do so.
As I wrote earlier this week, the Broncos blitzed the Steelers an uncharacteristically low 23 percent of the time, which, I’m guessing, had something to do with Ben Roethlisberger‘s shoulder injury. The first time around, Denver blitzed Pittsburgh 57 percent of the time, but if they felt that he were to be limited to short passes, they may have decided to lay off the pressure and force Big Ben to go deep.
You could make the same argument for Brady and the Patriots this week.
The last time these two teams matched up, the Broncos brought a blitz on 36 percent of Brady’s drop backs, but as we saw with the Steelers, that doesn’t mean much now. With Julian Edelman back in the mix, the Patriots’ short passing attack will be even better this weekend, which could lend to the idea that the Broncos should follow a similar plan of attack to the one they ran versus the Steelers.
I’m not so sure, though. I think the Broncos bring the heat, play after play, and force Brady to make a play quickly. Yes, he’s fully capable, but if the Broncos just let him sit back their and scan the field, he’ll find an open receiver, no matter how many guys are in coverage.
Plus, there really is something to the idea that Brady is worse under pressure. According to Pro Football Focus, he’s only the 14th most accurate quarterback when under pressure, which isn’t all that great for a guy considered to be the greatest quarterback in NFL history. Of course, he counteracts that by getting the ball out faster than just about anyone (2.26 seconds; 2nd fastest in the league), which is all the more reason why the Broncos better bring the pressure quickly.