Case Keenum is “the guy.” Period.
We’ve heard through OTAs all about how it helps the offensive players know he’s “the guy” because they can get comfortable with Keenum, they can learn his cadence, his timing and everything else.
But, what do we know about “the guy” as we enter his first season with the Denver Broncos?
First and foremost, Keenum’s been a backup quarterback as many years as he’s started eight or more games in a season, three years each. His career began in Houston, riding the bench the entire first season before starting eight games for the Texans and Gary Kubiak in 2013.
He went 0-8 that year as the starter, throwing for 1,760 yards with nine touchdowns and six interceptions. In 2014, he started two games for Houston before being traded to the St. Louis Rams, where Keenum started 14 games in 2015-16 combined. While those were all sad, sorry teams, his numbers weren’t special: 218 yards per game, with one touchdown and nearly one interception (.82) per game.
Simply, Keenum was pedestrian for his first five seasons in the NFL.
Then came 2017, clearly his best as a professional, and also the best team he’s ever been a part of in the NFL as well.
Sam Bradford was to be the starter in Minnesota last season — a Vikings team who were so dominant defensively they dethroned Denver as the best on that side of the ball — but Bradford was injured and Keenum took over.
While the defense allowed an NFL-best 15.8 points per game, Keenum’s offense was solid, scoring 23.9 per contest. His 3,547 yards were easily a career-high, as were his 22 touchdowns, while he ran for 160 yards and one score also.
With a defense that extraordinary, Keenum was basically asked to be a game-manager, and he did a mostly great job of that, throwing only seven interceptions on the season. He was even a step beyond game-manager at times; Keenum led one fourth quarter comeback and three game-winning drives in the regular season.
Then came the playoffs, where he played well against the New Orleans Saints, throwing up a prayer to Stefon Diggs which was caught and run 61 yards into the end zone for the win. Keenum did have a costly interception late in the third quarter of that game, keeping the Saints in it by handing them the ball only 30 yards from pay dirt, in which New Orleans scored. In that divisional playoff contest, the Vikings asked Keenum to mostly throw short passes, and, manage the game.
The next week, in the NFC Championship game, even a first-strike touchdown of 25 yards from Keenum to Kyle Rudolph couldn’t help the Vikings, as the would-be champion Eagles dominated 38-7. That game was one of only three last season in which Keenum threw two or more interceptions, and the Vikings went 1-2 in those games.
So, what does Keenum’s past tell us about his near future?
On the bright side, Keenum has playoff experience, and it was recent, coming last January. He knows what it’s like to play on that big a stage, something the Broncos have been missing since the days of Peyton Manning. The goal isn’t just to get to the playoffs, but to win the Super Bowl, and having a playoff-experienced quarterback is crucial in that desired outcome.
Another positive for Keenum, which could be considered a negative depending on how it’s looked at, is he’s a game-manager.
An argument could be made that the Broncos simply needed a game-manager the last two years and they would’ve made the playoffs. Trevor Siemian resembled one — mostly because he couldn’t make the big play — but Siemian also turned the ball over far too often to be in the same category as Keenum.
As his stats show from his most complete season, last year, Keenum won’t kill the Broncos by turning the ball over, therefore ending the hopes of scoring on that drive while giving the opponents a giant boost in momentum.
He also, in all likelihood, won’t be a quarterback which breaks the game open for the Broncos. He’s not going to be Tom Brady, lighting defenses on fire for four scores. But, if Denver’s defense lives up to its billing, they won’t need him to, either.
At an 85.3 overall grade from Pro Football Focus, Keenum was the ninth-best quarterback in the NFL last year. That doesn’t put him in the “elite” category, but it does place him firmly in the “he’s a capable starter” tier. And what may be the most underrated part of Keenum’s game is his mobility. Of the eight quarterbacks ranked higher than Keenum overall, only one — Russell Wilson (90.5) — graded out higher than the Broncos quarterback at running the ball (83.5).
Last year, his passing yards (253.4) and touchdowns (1.6) per game were the highest of his career, as was his 98.8 passer rating. Keenum, for now, is a game-manager, which could take Denver from missing the playoffs the last two years to back into the postseason.
And if he can find a way to take his game to the next level, the Broncos will only be that more dangerous overall.
Note: On intangibles, Keenum has shown leadership throughout OTAs and will host his own passing camp with receivers during this dead time for the team.