We often say that an NFL Sunday was “crazy,” but yesterday, that was actually the case. With at least four legitimate upsets in the span of 12 hours, the NFL’s playoff picture became a lot more interesting, which was both bad and good for the Denver Broncos’ playoff scenarios.
Heading into tonight’s primetime matchup against the Bengals, the Broncos are not only playing for the division, but they’re still fighting for a playoff spot, too. In fact, in probably the most surprising development of all, the Kansas City Chiefs have actually clinched a playoff spot before the Broncos, despite the fact that Denver is still leading the AFC West.
Likewise, before Sunday’s action started, a win by the Jets over the Patriots actually looked like a bad outcome for the Broncos. Most everybody predicted that the Chiefs and Steelers would take care of business, which would have meant that a Jets victory could have taken the Broncos’ playoff hopes out of their hands with a loss against the Bengals on Monday Night Football. But with the Steelers getting upset by the Ravens, a Jets win actually puts the Broncos in play for the No. 1 seed and improves their playoff chances overall.
We’ll know more after tonight’s game, but let’s breakdown where the Denver Broncos’ playoff chances stand as of Monday morning:
Make the playoffs:
Before we worry about seeding and positioning, the most important thing is that the Broncos make the playoffs, and thanks to Sunday’s outcomes, all they need is a win and they’re in.
So, even if the Broncos fall to the Bengals tonight, their playoff hopes will still be in their hands; a win against the Chargers next weekend will do just fine.
Win the No. 1 seed:
If the Broncos wanted any shot at the No. 1 seed, they needed the Jets to take down the Patriots, and that’s exactly what happened. With a win tonight, the Broncos will enter Week 17 with home-field advantage throughout the playoffs in play.
Since the Broncos have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Patriots — thanks to their overtime victory in Week 12 — two wins for the Broncos and a Patriots loss to the 5-10 Dolphins next week would do it. While the Patriots dropping a second straight game to the floundering Dolphins seems unlikely, as we saw yesterday, anything can happen in the NFL, especially if New England remains as banged up as they are.
It does reiterate how devastating the Broncos last two losses have been, though. If Denver had just pulled out one victory against the Raiders or Steelers, they’d currently be in control of the AFC’s top seed.
Win the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye:
The No. 1 seed would be nice, but the most important thing is that the Broncos get a first-round bye, which essentially makes tonight’s matchup versus the Cincinnati Bengals a playoff game.
If the Broncos beat the Bengals tonight and the Chargers next weekend (or a Bengals loss to the Ravens), then the bye is theirs.
If the Broncos lose tonight, though, the Bengals will have clinched the No. 2 seed and a “playoff victory,” for all intents and purposes.
Win the No. 3 seed:
If the Broncos lose tonight, the best they can hope for is the No. 3 seed and a wild card matchup against the AFC’s lowest-seeded Wild Card.
Given a loss on Monday Night Football, the only way the Broncos could salvage the division is with a win over the Chargers in Week 17 and a Chiefs loss to the Raiders. Safe to say, Denver doesn’t want to have to rely on that.
Win the No. 5 seed:
If the Broncos split their final two games and the Chiefs beat the Raiders, Denver will have lost the division, making the Wild Card their only playoff option. If it does come to this, they’ll desperately want the fifth seed, as opposed to the sixth.
With the fifth seed, the Broncos would be going on the road in Round 1, but they’ll be going on the road to face either the Houston Texans or Indianapolis Colts (almost definitely the Texans), a team that will be 9-7 at best. Again, there are no guarantees, but that’s about the easiest first-round matchup a team could hope for.
In order to get the fifth seed, though, the Broncos will need the Jets to lose to the Bills next weekend. The Jets will be favored, but there’s no questioning that the Rex Ryan-led Bills will give the Jets everything they have.
Win the No. 6 seed:
If the Broncos split their final two games and the Jets beat the Bills, they’ll drop below New York and end up with the final seed in the AFC, placing them in a Round 1 matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Broncos miss the playoffs:
In this doomsday scenario, the Broncos would have to lose their final two games and the Steelers would have to take care of business against the Browns next week.
I think it’s safe to say that if that happens, and the Broncos lose four straight to close out the season, they’ll have earned their spot on the outside of the playoffs.