One year ago against the Los Angeles Lakers in the Conference Finals, the Denver Nuggets defended their homecourt behind mastery from Nikola Jokic and heroics from Jamal Murray. Game 1 was all about Jokic and how he controlled the matchup against Anthony Davis and the Lakers frontcourt. Game 2 was much more of a struggle, with the Nuggets trailing for a while until Murray put together a fourth quarter outburst to carry the Nuggets across the finish line.
Through two games in the first round this year, it looks much the same.
Yes, the details are different. Yes, Murray’s field goal percentage isn’t what Nuggets fans would like. Yes, Game 2 came down to the buzzer this time around while the Nuggets ended up pulling away from the Lakers last year.
But in both years, the Nuggets were 2-0 heading to Los Angeles, and there are many more similarities than Nuggets fans might remember.
For instance, the Nuggets scored 132 points in Game 1 last year. They were unstoppable offensively with Jokic putting up some unbelievable numbers. Anthony Davis was unbelievable as a scorer, but he got cooked defensively by Jokic, leading to the famed Rui Hachimura adjustment in the fourth quarter of that game. Jokic slowed down, and the Nuggets merely scored 26 points in that fourth quarter. Lakers fans thought they had a method to slow Denver’s offense. Denver ultimately won, but because Denver still gave up 126 points, the Lakers had faith that they could score with Denver. All they had to do was slow down Denver’s offense.
Game 2 was a 108-103 defensive affair. Everyone knows that the Nuggets ultimately won, that Jamal Murray had 23 points in the fourth quarter after having 14 points on 5-of-17 shooting heading into the period. What they might forget is that the Nuggets trailed the Lakers heading into halftime. They trailed the Lakers heading into the fourth quarter. Jokic shot just 9-of-21 from the field for the game. There was no reason why the Lakers shouldn’t have won that game. But Murray happened. And Michael Porter Jr., who made two clutch threes to give Denver the separation they desperately needed.
This might feel like a bit of a deja vu moment, because to me, those sound eerily close to the games that are happening right now.
In the series last year, the Lakers should have won one of the games. Plain and simple. It was a missed opportunity for LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and co. to not have stolen at least one of the contests. In Game 1, Davis dropped FORTY points, making many of the shots he was seen making over Jokic in Games 1 and 2 of this series. In Game 2, the Lakers got great production from Austin Reaves, who dropped 22 points on 5-of-9 from three and was a +13 in a game the Lakers somehow lost by five points. That sounds pretty similar to the game they got from D’Angelo Russell, who put up 23 points and was 7-of-11 from three, somehow a +4 in a game the Lakers lost by two.
The Lakers made adjustments from Game 1 to Game 2 in both years and nearly stole a game from the Nuggets. Both times, the Nuggets survived. This time, it was a closer call because the Nuggets had higher to climb, a 20-point deficit in the early third quarter. Murray was at the center of both Game 2 comebacks, hitting a litany of clutch shots last year and perhaps the most clutch shot of his career this year to win Monday’s game at the buzzer.
Yes, both teams have different rosters. Bruce Brown and Jeff Green are no longer on the roster, replaced in Denver’s rotation by Justin Holiday and Peyton Watson respectively (interestingly enough, both of Christian Braun and Reggie Jackson played in each Game 2). For the Lakers, it’s not Dennis Schroder anymore but Gabe Vincent. It’s not Jarred Vanderbilt either, but rather Jaxson Hayes. Taurean Prince is now playing the role of Lonnie Walker IV in LA’s rotation.
But the main cast of characters remains the same, and the way that both teams reacted to adversity and pressure is also similar. The Nuggets fought through the pain and refused to lose. The Lakers couldn’t withstand the onslaught.
Why do any of these comparisons matter?
Well, the Nuggets now head to Crypto.com Arena for Game 3 tonight. The Lakers are hoping to defend their homecourt, win both of Games 3 and 4, and send the series back to Denver all tied up once again. The Nuggets have other ideas, and those ideas prevailed in both Games 3 and 4 at Crypto with the Nuggets never needing to come back to Ball Arena before Game 1 of the NBA Finals.
This time around, it’s the first round of the playoffs. The NBA Finals dream is far off in the distance, still over a month away. 10 more wins away. The Nuggets can’t get caught looking too far ahead or thinking too much about the past. While last year’s storyline ended with two wins in Los Angeles, there’s no guarantee this year will go the same way. In fact, it’s extremely likely the Nuggets will drop at least one of the next two. Because after all, how probable is TEN straight Nuggets wins over the Lakers? Let alone 12 if the next two matchups go Denver’s way?
The Lakers will do everything they can to prevent that from happening, and they will start by trying to rein in Jamal Murray again. The Nuggets point guard is shooting 18-of-48 (37.5%) from the field in the first two matchups combined, and the longer he struggles, the more likely it is the Lakers can break through. Remembering back to Game 3 though, that involved Murray scoring a staggering 30 points in the first half and 37 points for the game. It would be great if Murray could do that again or at least something similar, but expecting that would be a fool’s errand. 30 points in a half has only happened 44 total times in the playoffs since 1997. Murray’s done it three times, including twice in the bubble against Donovan Mitchell and the Utah Jazz.
If the Lakers can’t slow down Murray, they will try to score more on their own. Being held to 99 points by the Nuggets when Davis was scoring at will in the first half was a bad sign for them. The Lakers got to the free throw line 29 times in last year’s Game 3 compared to Denver’s 19. It was the three-point shooting that did in the Lakers though as they shot 31.3% from three compared to Denver’s 41.5% from distance. So far in the series, the Nuggets are shooting 26.2% on wide open threes, so that would be a welcome change to keep pace with a Lakers team that will score more than 99 tonight.
Whatever happens, whether the Nuggets and Lakers repeat history or not, it’s simply interesting to see how both series have mirrored each other so closely to this point. Maybe this is when the paths deviate.
Maybe not.