Round and round the rumor mill spins, where it stops…well, we all know, it stops on Thursday night.
But the leadup to the 2021 NFL Draft has brought excitement in Broncos Country and around the NFL world as, like George Paton said last week, as many as six quarterbacks could be taken in that first round. Unfortunately for the Broncos, the top four gunslingers are likely to be all gone by the time Denver picks at No. 9 overall.
That’s a big deal because the Broncos are legitimate Super Bowl contenders in 2021, if they find a star quarterback in the draft. PFF said so, and I agree.
That’s not to say Drew Lock is doomed to be a bottom-5 quarterback, as the stats have suggested he is through his first two years. Certainly, Lock has a chance to continue to make strides and improve, but is his ceiling a top-5 quarterback, or does he top out around middle-of-the-pack territory?
And, if you’re George Paton and you believe he tops out as a mediocre QB, but you see a could-be superstar in Trey Lance or Justin Fields, you’ve got to go get them, right?
Right.
As for who will be available, that brings us back to the rumor mill. The San Francisco 49ers have a chance to define this draft, moving up from No. 12 overall all the way up to No. 3. At first, they were going to take Mac Jones. That seemed a little fishy because moving up that far to take Jones would be a complete reach.
Now, the latest rumor has the Niners taking Trey Lance, which would be a great scenario if you’re a Broncos fan. Well, Jones would be the best pick for San Francisco, because it would potentially leave both Fields and Lance there at No. 4, where Paton and the Broncos are going to have to move up to in order to take either of the two flashy prospects.
So, if the Niners take Lance at No. 3, as the third overall QB — Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson are going Nos. 1 and 2 — the Broncos should jump at the opportunity to take Justin Fields. However, if the Niners take Fields, Denver should not move up five spots to take Lance.
Look, we’re all just guessing at this point, especially when it comes to quarterbacks, but the Broncos should take Fields if they can, and not Lance.
Let’s look at why.
First and foremost, Fields played at Ohio State, one of the finest football schools in the country. That means Fields has played against the top competition the college football world has to offer, likely lacing it up against many foes who will be or already are in the NFL.
Meanwhile, Lance played his college ball at North Dakota State University. NDSU isn’t even in the same league as Ohio State — literally — as part of the FCS. However, it should be noted NDSU is arguably the finest FCS team out there, but it makes it difficult to judge Lance’s success because he played against much worse opponents.
It’s not just where they played and who they played against, either, though. Fields was the starter for Ohio State the last two seasons, playing in 22 games for the Buckeyes. He also saw a little of playing time as a freshman at Georgia before transferring.
In those 22 games, Fields enjoyed a wonderful 68.4 completion percentage, with 9.3 yards per attempt and tossed a stellar 63 touchdowns compared to a mere 9 interceptions. Oh, and he ran for 867 yards and 15 touchdowns in those two seasons, too.
On the flip side, Lance has played in a mere 17 games, and against worse competition. Hey, a quick glance at the numbers and he looks amazing, too: 67.0 completion percentage, and 28 touchdowns compared to zero interceptions in 2019 alone.
However, Lance played less games than did Fields at the college level. And that includes a mere one “showcase” game in 2020 due to COVID-19 for Lance, compared to eight games for Fields in this most recent college season.
Of course, when a team searches for a quarterback of the future, they’d like to have more data, but when we look a little closer, it’s doubtful Lance would be an upgrade on Lock in terms of accuracy.
Trey Lance had a 44.1% accurate pass rate beyond the line of scrimmage in 2019 & 2020
That would be the worst % by a 1st RD QB since 2017 pic.twitter.com/E4hftU7vbR
— PFF College (@PFF_College) April 23, 2021
Accuracy is incredibly important as a quarterback, and we saw firsthand last year what it looks like when a team’s QB is the least-accurate in the NFL, as Lock was. He and should-be star Jerry Jeudy missed on many opportunities, Lock completely missed his intended targets at times, and others he tossed footballs up for grabs on his way to leading the NFL with 15 interceptions.
Of course, taking any quarterback at No. 4 overall — or even 9th — is a huge gamble. But, the biggest gamble of the top-4 quarterbacks this year is Trey Lance. Given his lack of experience and the fact he’s played at NDSU for the last two years, as well as the analytical look at his accuracy.
Meanwhile, Fields has played at the highest level college football has to offer, even competing in the last Championship game, meaning the transition to the NFL will be a smaller leap than for Lance.
If Paton wants to make a huge splash in his first NFL Draft as a GM, he should move up to No. 4 and snag Fields. But, not Lance.
Your move, Denver pic.twitter.com/aav5cUuvvT
— PFF (@PFF) April 27, 2021