By every account, Paxton Lynch needs time to develop. In fact, most draft evaluators said that he needs at least a year, if not two, to sit and learn before he’ll be ready to take over as a starting NFL quarterback.
Here are just a few of their quotes …
Lance Zierlein, NFL.com
“While he has the physical tools to start right away, a team who is willing to allow him to sit and study his craft for a year could reap maximum rewards in the future.”
Dane Brugler / Rob Rank, CBS Sports
“His pro transition will require time and although he might not be “perfect” in every area, the ingredients are there for Lynch to develop into a successful starting NFL quarterback.”
Charlie Campbell, Walter Football
“Lynch has a great skill set with size, athleticism and a strong arm. However, he is a developmental project for the NFL as he is raw prospect coming out of college.”
ESPN Draft Profile
“However, while Lynch has all the physical tools to succeed, he is likely to be overwhelmed with the mental aspects of playing quarterback in the NFL. Highest ceiling but lowest floor of the top QBs in 2016.”
Todd McShay, ESPN
“He’s a long-term developmental project, a lot like a Brock Osweiler. But I think he’s less polished than Osweiler when [Osweiler] was coming out of Arizona State.”
Mel Kiper, ESPN
“He needs two to three years to sit, watch and learn.”
Across the board, every piece of analysis was essentially the same: This is an extremely talented guy, but he’s going to need some time.
There are, though, two guys who seem to be of a different opinion.
Kubiak says Paxton Lynch will be ready sooner than people think #Kubiak #broncos
— Zac Stevens (@ZacStevensDNVR) May 6, 2016
Kubiak on Paxton Lynch "obviously he's going to make up ground very quickly" #Kubiak #broncos pic.twitter.com/NJxGEtX7jz
— Zac Stevens (@ZacStevensDNVR) May 6, 2016
“We think [Paxton Lynch] is going to be ready quicker than a lot of people think,” John Elway told Denver Sports 760 Thursday morning.
Both Kubiak and Elway have gone out of their way to tell the media that Lynch is going to make a quicker transition to the NFL than most people think, and why wouldn’t they? He was the No. 2 quarterback on their draft board and they traded up to get him; it’s pretty clear that they believe in the kid.
And while, yes, maybe the best thing for Lynch is to, as Kiper would say, “sit, watch and learn” for a year, that’s not how the NFL works nowadays. As we detailed yesterday, there have been 26 quarterbacks drafted in the first round over the last decade, and all but two of them have gone on to start a game in their first season — those two were Jake Locker and Brady Quinn.
Originally, I was of the belief that Lynch might sneak a start or two in at the end of the season, but only if Mark Sanchez completely self combusted. With these comments, I’m legitimately beginning to wonder whether Lynch could be starting the majority of the year, if not the entirety of it.
We’ve seen teams like the Jacksonville Jaguars say that they, under no circumstances, will let their young quarterback start during his rookie season, and then before you know it, Blake Bortles is under center by Week 3. And in the Broncos’ case, they’re not even denying that Lynch will have the opportunity to compete for the starting job this offseason.
Lynch is clearly the long-term answer for Elway and the Broncos, and I wouldn’t be surprised if that clouds their vision in what should be an un-biased quarterback competition.
If Lynch looks even remotely competent during training camp and preseason, it’s going to become increasingly difficult for the Broncos to keep him on the sidelines. Whether it’s the right decision or not, the odds are heavily against Lynch sitting out the entirety of his rookie season.