After 55 games in the 2022-23 season, the Denver Nuggets had a 38-17 record.
After the same number of games last season, the Nuggets had a 36-19 record.
Exiting the All-Star Break this season, the Nuggets currently have a 36-19 record, identical to last season.
Every season in the NBA is different, even for the same teams. The Nuggets have gone through different trials and tribulations in each of the last three seasons, and it’s important to remember that just because the Nuggets don’t look exactly like they did in 2022-23 doesn’t mean the same result won’t occur. Of course, the same is true in reverse too: just because the Nuggets have won the same number of games doesn’t mean they’re as good of a team.
So, let’s go deeper than record and look at some other key indicators across multiple seasons to see how good the Nuggets actually are.
- Point Differential vs Strength of Schedule
- Performance vs Elite Teams
- Lineup Data with and without Nikola Jokic
Let’s dive in:
Denver’s Point Differential
It’s important to note that regular season point differential isn’t the be-all for playoff performance. The last five NBA champions had the following ranks in regular season Net Rating on NBA.com
- 2019-20 Los Angeles Lakers – 5th
- 2020-21 Milwaukee Bucks – 4th
- 2021-22 Golden State Warriors – 4th
- 2022-23 Denver Nuggets – 6th
- 2023-24 Boston Celtics – 1st
Sometimes, it’s clear based on what happened during the regular season who the champion is likely to be. The Boston Celtics were dominant last year and deserved to be crowned in June. Each of the four previous champions, including Denver, ranked outside the top three in Net Rating. That seems important. One doesn’t have to solve the regular season to solve the playoffs. A league source told me last week that NBA teams are withholding more than ever before when it comes to game plans, plays, and information that they’re saving for playoff basketball. Playoff basketball is just different.
It doesn’t mean there aren’t aspects the regular season that aren’t valuable though. Top three seeds win the championship almost every year. That’s because they’re often better than the opposing team, but home court advantage often matters too.
With that in mind, here’s some information on Denver’s point differential stats.
Net Rating on NBA.com is simply point differential on the 82-game season adjusted for the number of possessions a team plays to generate a consistent number across 30 teams all playing at different paces of play. SRS on Basketball Reference is “Simple Rating System” which “takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule.” EPM on Dunks and Threes is “Estimated Plus-Minus” which is a metric that’s “a blend of before-season projections (using EPM and Vegas) and the current season’s team-level, schedule-adjusted ratings.”
Effectively, they all measure how good a team is versus their schedule every year.
The Nuggets have been roughly the same team every year. They’re really good in the regular season but not quite in that top tier. What’s changed is the teams around them. Oklahoma City has elevated themselves to incredible heights this year statistically. The same can be said for Boston last year. The year Denver won the championship? Nobody was that great in the regular season. Denver was technically sixth, but no teams were in a class of their own.
Performance vs Elite Teams
In my opinion, teams that dominate the games against opponents with sub 0.500 records show their seriousness as a regular season team. They stayed focused and don’t mess with the game, taking care of business to ensure they get a high playoff seed.
Teams that dominate against above 0.500 opponents? They show their true talent level, what happens when they’re pushed to the limit against the best teams. How a team responds in these situations shows resilience and backbone.
So, how has Denver fared these last three years?
The win percentage is broken down on ESPN’s standings tab, measuring the Nuggets record against teams that are currently above or below average. The next three columns are based on Cleaning the Glass Net Ratings and how the Nuggets have fared vs each of the teams ranked in the Top 10, Middle 10, and Bottom 10 of the NBA.
Each of the last three seasons yields an interesting story. Denver’s performance against the best teams in the NBA was strongest the year they won a championship. Denver still took care of business against the worst teams that year but struggled vs the middle of the pack.
Last season, Denver was mostly great against every type of team, no matter how good or bad. Their 28-2 record against sub 0.500 teams was pristine and showed an impressive level of seriousness.
This year, Denver’s taking care of business for the most part, though their win percentage against the best teams in the NBA has taken a hit. Their win percentage vs below 0.500 teams has dropped, and the Nuggets have a 7-13 record vs the teams ranked in the Top 10 in point differential on Cleaning the Glass.
In history, teams with this type of profile are often considered to be a paper tiger. A regular season threat that doesn’t have the talent to compete in the playoffs. Of course, the Nuggets have Nikola Jokic and a championship winning core, so that’s not exactly true. It does hint that the Nuggets aren’t as strong against the best teams though, something to monitor in the post All-Star schedule.
Lineup Data with and without Nikola Jokic
So much of Denver’s success and failure revolves around their ability to augment Jokic’s strengths and cover up for his failings. Teammates need to remove pressure on him in some categories like perimeter defense, rim protection, and floor spacing.
In 2022-23, the Nuggets were dependent on Jokic. They never truly figured out how to survive without him, right up until the playoffs when they found a way. In subsequent years, they’ve figured out some different things.
It’s funny to think about how much panic there was during the 2022-23 season about who would play off the bench, especially with Bruce Brown’s impact numbers in the non-Jokic minutes being as bad as they were. Ultimately, the Nuggets figured it out. They were so good in the Jokic minutes throughout the playoffs that they survived when he didn’t play. It also helped that Jokic averaged 39.5 minutes per game in the 2022-23 playoffs. When there’s only 8.5 minutes per game of bench time to worry about, the roster and coaching staff can mitigate damage.
There’s consistency across the board here, and all of the Net Ratings are non-garbage time. Every primary rotation player has higher than a +10 Net Rating with Jokic in each of the last three seasons except for two veterans: Jeff Green and Reggie Jackson. The Nuggets figured it out with Green. They ended up not playing Jackson.
What these numbers say to me is that Denver’s “plan” still works. They’ve built an elite team around Nikola Jokic when Jokic is on the floor. Denver has some star level scoring talent in Murray and Porter. They have versatility and defense in Gordon and Braun. They have a super sub in Russell Westbrook. They have other young options in Watson and Strawther. That might end up being all they need.
On the season in 2022-23, the Nuggets had a -11.6 Net Rating in the regular season and a +4.0 Net Rating in the playoffs with Jokic off the floor.
On the season in 2023-24, the Nuggets had a -11.1 Net Rating in the regular season and a -11.8 Net Rating in the playoffs with Jokic off the floor. The big difference that season was that when Jokic was on the floor in the playoffs, Denver’s Net Rating was merely +0.7. Just above average.
This season, 2024-25, the Nuggets have a -10.4 Net Rating in the regular season without Jokic on the floor.
There’s precedent for them finding some lineups featuring Aaron Gordon at center and Jamal Murray staggering that could make it work. Whether Denver can actually be good enough in those minutes this time around remains to be seen. Denver has to always make sure the Jokic lineups stay elite though. That’s Denver’s most important formula to success, not the six to eight minutes Jokic is sitting out every game.
Let’s circle back to the beginning: just how good are the Denver Nuggets this year?
Well, they’re different, that’s for sure. Regular season wise, the end product is about the same as it’s been the previous two seasons. The way Denver gets to the end goal is a bit different, and they still have some things to prove. How good can Denver be when faced with elite competition?
When the playoffs roll around, their formula for success will be tested over and over again. The Nuggets always win the Jokic minutes in the regular season. They went 45-6 in 2022-23 when they won Jokic’s minutes that year. They went 16-2 in the playoffs when Jokic was a plus.
In 2023-24, Denver went 53-10 in the regular season and 7-0 in the playoffs when Jokic won his minutes.
In 2024-25, the Nuggets are now 30-5 when Jokic is a plus. They are 4-10 in games when he’s even or a minus and 2-4 in the six games he hasn’t played.
Here’s an incredible stat: the Nuggets are 3-30 in playoff games when Jokic has a neutral or negative plus-minus. For comparison’s sake, LeBron James’ teams have an 15-87 record in those games. Stephen Curry’s Golden State Warriors are 8-39. Kevin Durant’s teams have a 10-61 record.
That might seem like a pretty straightforward breakdown to some, but it’s sincerely an ultimatum for the Nuggets: win the Jokic minutes or bow out of the playoffs. Denver doesn’t have enough to make up for when he’s bad or the minutes just don’t go Denver’s way while he’s out there.
For that reason, among many, it’s extremely important for every Nugget to be as healthy as possible come playoff time. The Nuggets will have to trust Jokic to be the best version of himself when it matters. If anyone can deliver for Denver, it’s him. The questions start when discussing who can be the best version of themselves around him.
If Jamal Murray plays like 2022-23, the Nuggets have a great chance. If Jamal Murray plays like 2023-24.
Ditto for Aaron Gordon, whose backup center minutes will be essential when the time comes. Will he be healthy enough to make it happen?
Ditto for Michael Porter, who has taken steps forward and matured his game over the years. Can he handle the physicality that will surely be thrown his way? That’s for the Nuggets and him to answer.
Finally, can Christian Braun translate what’s been a great regular season so far to a playoff environment that will be unkind? His tendencies will be on full display when teams game plan for him across a playoff series. Can he be adaptable and rise to the moment? He’s done so plenty of times in his career already.
The Nuggets, effectively, are the same team they’ve always been. The questions are the same, while the answers are variably different.
It will be interesting to see whether the 2025 playoffs look more like the 2023 championship, a 2024 failure, or something new entirely.