Tonight, the Denver Nuggets will figure out who they’re facing in the first round of the Western Conference Playoffs.
After finding a roundabout way to the 2-seed in the West, the Nuggets have relaxed for the last couple of days, recovering after a long regular season. They won 57 games, tying a franchise record, and with the new award rules in place, the Nuggets had several players suit up in more games than they probably should have.
Nikola Jokic played 79 games, and he played fewer than 30 minutes in just 12 games all season, two of which he was ejected from. Michael Porter Jr. was an iron man for Denver, playing in 81 of 82 games and at least 24 minutes in all but eight games. Porter actually averaged the second most minutes on the team when it was all said and done. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope played 76 games. Aaron Gordon played 73 games. Off the bench, Reggie Jackson and Christian Braun each suited up for all 82, while Peyton Watson played 80 himself.
Jamal Murray played just 59 games, sitting out multiple stretches due to injury. He even rolled his left ankle in the final game of the season against the Memphis Grizzlies, but it sounds like he will be good to go by Saturday.
All of this to say, the Nuggets needed a break. They needed the respite more than they might admit, and the Play-In Tournament will probably at least some measure of time to get ready for what it hoped to be a long playoff run.
Not every team is afforded the same luxury though, and Denver’s opponent will be determined from the first such matchup of this week’s event.
The @SoFi NBA Play-In Tournament schedule ⬇️
Dates: April 16-19
At stake: Seventh and eighth playoff seeds in each conference
Participants: Teams that finished seventh through 10th in each conference pic.twitter.com/Tfc79TpW4Y— NBA Communications (@NBAPR) April 14, 2024
That’s not an enviable situation, and it’s actually one that my friend Harrison Faigen wrote about from the Lakers perspective, stating that the Lakers should tank the first Play-In game to avoid the Nuggets entirely:
There is no honor in getting punted out of the postseason by the Nuggets one more time. The same people who would roast or criticize the Lakers for ducking Denver would do the same for another lopsided series loss. If a title is truly all that matters, who cares? All the Lakers can do is try to maximize their chances at it.
Now, it’s worth noting that this is all a hypothetical. The Lakers, as (or more) risk-averse to embarrassment as any NBA team, are unlikely to spit in the face of tradition to tuck tail vs. a Pelicans team they seem to own, and hope for the best on the other side of the bracket (or take a chance at the mockery that would come with doing so, and then losing to the Kings or Warriors). It’s doubtful LeBron would stand by and let them (voluntarily) duck that smoke, and the Lakers, as professional athletes, probably have enough pride to believe they have a shot vs. the Nuggets.
But I don’t. At least not the fully healthy version.
That’s quite the declaration, and it’s unsurprising. In the last two years, the Lakers have barely scratched the Nuggets, and every time a game comes down to a clutch situation, the Nuggets have as much confidence against the Lakers as they do against anyone in the NBA. The playoffs are all about executing in the clutch moments, and the Nuggets would be ready for whatever the Lakers throw their way. Denver’s familiar with LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Austin Reaves, and the Rui Hachimura adjustment. There’s not a lot the Lakers could do that would legitimately surprise Denver
On the other side of things, the Pelicans have been the less heralded team, but one that still finished with 49 wins despite an injury to Brandon Ingram that held him out for 12 of the final 13 games of the season. Ingram returned in the final game and played 23 minutes in a loss to the Lakers, but with another week of recovery, it’s fair to say he will mostly be back to normal before a prospective Game 1 in a few days.
Could the Pelicans tank the Play-In to avoid the Nuggets and face the Oklahoma City Thunder instead (only after they play a win-or-go-home game against either the Warriors or the Kings)? They’re probably less likely to consider something of that nature than the Lakers. The Pelicans have found some success against Denver when they space the Nuggets defense away from the rim with wing shooters and attack the gaps with Ingram and Zion Williamson. They’re more likely to challenge Denver over a seven-game series, but the matchup advantages for Jokic in the middle of the floor are easier to identify.
Each team will present its own unique challenges. The Lakers have more scoring guards and an elite rim-protecting big man, along with the greatest player of the last generation. The Pelicans don’t have the same star power, but they’re more versatile, more wing-heavy, are more likely to challenge Jamal Murray, but less likely to challenge Nikola Jokic. Is one matchup better than the other? Probably not.
Nuggets fans, who do you want to see in the first round?
— Ryan Blackburn (@NBABlackburn) April 14, 2024
For those reasons alone, I think I’d rather face the Lakers if I were in Denver’s position. There’s a psychological advantage that the Nuggets currently employ over them, and there’s a folding factor to the Lakers as a veteran team that knows what it has and doesn’t have. The Pelicans employ Jose Alvarado, who would sooner go full 2015 Matthew Dellavedova than be accused of folding early.
But that’s just me. Who do you think the Nuggets should want to see in the first round? We will know for sure by Tuesday night.