Do the math, crunch the numbers, fiddle with the scenarios. Do it as many ways and for as long as you wish. But know this: The 2018 Denver Broncos are toast.
That’s no news flash – kind of a Captain Obvious sort of statement. Just don’t let the math or the Broncos head coach fool you.
The algorithm required of the Broncos and a handful of others for Denver to somehow find its way into the postseason can be summed up best as “a long shot.” Even Mike Klis acknowledged that the combination that gets the Broncos in “is a lot to ask.”
Vance Joseph, the ol’ ball coach himself, now understands the long odds he’s facing: “Our record right now, we’re still in it,” he said – accurately – after the Sunday’s loss to the now 3-10 49ers. “Every game now is a must-win. We haven’t talked about that, but we have to now. Every game that we play from now on is a must-win.”
Yes, please Coach, it’s time to talk about that now. Good thing that wasn’t discussed prior to a game that should be won by Denver seven days a week and twice on Sunday. Great googley-moogley… if yesterday’s game against one of the worst teams in the NFL wasn’t a “must win” in the coach’s mind, should he even have boarded the plane back to D.I.A?
Like Lloyd Christmas, Vance Joseph is tellin’ us there’s a chance.. Oh, goodie. There was a chance that Joseph’s fourth quarter challenge of a catch was going to work out, too. Christmas was okay with one-in-a-million. Joseph’s successful challenge calls are sitting at one-out-of-eight as an NFL head coach, and Broncos fans near and wide are not okay with that rate.
The odds that a tight end has 210 receiving yards in half of an NFL game are eminently better than Joseph getting a challenge call correct, or that his defensive coordinator Joe Woods whips up a game plan worth a damn. The Broncos’ inability to stop San Francisco tight end George Kittle had former Broncos wide receiver Rod Smith reaching for expletives. Woods’ insistence on playing zone was a head-scratcher to Smith, too.
But hey, zero catches for Kittle in the second half – now that’s a halftime adjustment.
For as bad and as banged up as the Broncos were against the Niners, for as bone-headed as the Broncos coaching staff was in a loss that should have never happened, that’s not when or how the game – or the season – was lost.
It wasn’t lost in the first half.
It wasn’t lost because of the emergence of a surprise secret weapon – “He’s a great player,” said Joseph of Kittle. “We knew coming into the game that he’s the guy we had to stop and we didn’t get it done.”
(So, you knew Kittle was the guy before the game?)
It wasn’t lost on third down, where the Broncos converted a practically amazing 2-for-13 – “We had good plays called. We could have called some better plays, but obviously we didn’t play good,” Joseph said following the game.
(A solid summation if there ever was one.)
Sadly though, Sunday’s game – the one that effectively nullifies all of this playoff talk, and probably the “Vance might stay” talk – wasn’t lost on Sunday.
It was lost on Jan. 7, 2017.
That’ the day that John Elway interviewed now-Niner head coach Kyle Shanahan. That’s the day Shanahan didn’t get hired. That’s the day the Broncos lost to the 49ers 20-14.
Instead, the Broncos went ahead and hired Vance Joseph five days later.
It’s not that the son of Broncos legendary coach Mike Shanahan has been great in San Francisco – he hasn’t. But he was also handed a pretty bad football team, and dealt with some significant injuries, too. Joseph, as you’ll recall, was handed a pretty nice set-up. Remember, this was not a rebuilding situation – this was a reboot.
“There is a culture of winning here, and the standards around here won’t change,” Joseph famously said upon getting Elway’s nod.
There was. And they have. All under Joseph’s watch.
Would a Kyle Shanahan offense, led by an NFL quarterback with more than four starts under his belt, ever put up “about 69 yards in the first seven drives.”? (Hint: That’s what Denver’s O did behind Case Keenum – who’s better than his coaches have made him look this year).
Would Kyle Shanahan have botched yet another challenge call? Actually, he would not have. Here’s a little compare and contrast for you: Last season, Shanahan was the best coach in the NFL as it pertained to getting challenges correct; Joseph was 0-3.
What would Shanahan have done with one of the top defenses in the NFL?
What would you have done? Would you hire the coach who had just been the offensive coordinator of the best offense in the league? Would you hire the defensive coordinator who “led” his defense to a No. 29 ranking?
It’s an offensive league.
No. 1 is better than No. 29.
Alas, it’s spilt milk.
It’s a lost cause.
Just like the season.