Mile High Sports

Mile High Sports Week 1 NFL Betting Primer

Aniello Piro

And. Here. We. Go.

Football season is back, which means season numero dos of the Mile High Sports betting primer presented by the fine folks over at SuperBook Sports. So get signed up with SuperBook, use this primer to your advantage, and let’s make some dollars this week!

This primer aims to paint a picture of the weekend NFL betting slate so you can dive into it with your head on straight. Sports betting is here, and if you are going to bet, you might as well get an edge, right?

All odds are courtesy of SuperBook Sports, and if you are looking for a place to watch and bet the games in person, head up to The Lodge Casino and check out the retail SuperBook sportsbook! Let’s get after it…

Sides I like 

Cleveland Browns @ Carolina Panthers (PK)

The Baker Mayfield revenge game.

The Browns failed to live up to expectations in 2021 after making the postseason in 2020 and look to return to the postseason form this year. After a lackluster and injury-riddled season, Cleveland opted to move on from Baker Mayfield in favor of Deshaun Watson. It was a bizarre move considering the circumstances surrounding Watson off the field; however, Cleveland was clearly willing to overlook the situation to bring in what, in their eyes, is a significant upgrade compared to Mayfield. Nonetheless, it will be Jacoby Brissett under center for the Browns in this Week 1 matchup as Watson is currently suspended.

Brissett is 14-23 in his career as a starter. He will have Nick Chubb and Amari Cooper to work with as his primary options on offense, which should help him in his first game with the Browns. Still, this Panthers’ defense is fierce, ranking second in total yards allowed per game a year ago.

Mayfield ended up with Carolina after an awkward divorce with Cleveland and is certainly out to prove something this season. Unfortunately, the ending was nasty with the Browns. Despite being the first sign of stability at the quarterback position in two decades for the Browns organization, he was essentially chased out of town.

Now his new team is intriguing. Head Coach Matt Rhule is coaching for his job this season, which is part of why Carolina ended up trading for Mayfield. However, with Christian McCaffery healthy and a solid wide receiving core, the Panthers’ offense certainly has some significant upside against the Watsonless Browns.

Mayfield plays his best when motivated. After fizzling out in Cleveland, you best believe in getting his best effort to make a statement. The Panthers are healthy, loaded with boom or bust talent, and in dire need of getting off to a good start.

Look towards the home team to win the game here.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+6.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals O/U 44.5 

Fading the AFC Champs.

If you read the primers last year, you know I am bullish on Mike Tomlin. He’s covering at a near 60% clip as an underdog for his career as Steelers head coach, and the Steelers are 16-5-2 ATS in their last 23 meetings in Cincinnati.

Here’s a fun one: the Super Bowl loser is 4-18 ATS in Week 1 since 2000. The Bengals are a damn good football team, and their fans are sure to be riled up, but Tomlin is the gold standard of coaching in the NFL. Zac Taylor? The jury is still out. Nonetheless, this is familiar territory for the Tomlin-led Steelers getting nearly a touchdown.

The Rams looked awful against the Bills, could the Bengals also be a little sluggish out of the gate? Many were skeptical of the Bengals last season, myself included. Their preseason wins total is 9.5, which is low for a team fresh off a Super Bowl appearance. Cincinnati could be in for a bit of a Super Bowl hangover.

Mitch Trubsiky is QB1 now in Pittsburgh, and while he’s not the greatest quarterback in the league, he has some upside.

The under is 5-2-1 in the last eight meetings between these two, and Pittsburgh has fared well in recent times, posting a 21-10-1 ATS clip in their last 32 head-to-head meetings. The Bengals are due for some regression. I trust Pittsburgh to keep this game within a touchdown.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys (+2.5) 

This is a weird one. I’m down on the Cowboys this season, but I think this is a good spot for them. They had the highest cover rate ATS in the NFL last season and are certainly out to prove something after an embarrassing end to their campaign.

Underdog is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings head-to-head, and the Cowboys nearly beat the Bucs on opening night last season, losing 31-29. But, like Matt Rhule, Mike McCarthy could be coaching for his job. The strength of the Cowboys is their defense, led by Micah Parson, Demarcus Lawrence, and Trevon Diggs. Tom Brady anchors the Buccaneers, but their offensive line is down a few key starters.

The Dallas offense can rack up the yards and points; this home crowd should be into it. There are some weird questions with Tampa this season. Brady retired and then untired. Gronk and Antonio Brown are gone. Todd Bowles is now head coach. Brady randomly took off during training camp. There are many moving parts with this team, injuries aside.

Let’s look towards the home dog here, looking to prove something.

Quick Leans

Baltimore Ravens (-6.5) @ New York Jets, Under 44

The Jets are not good, and with Joe Flacco under center it is hard to think much of them for this matchup. The Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last six games in Week 1. The Jets are also 6-20-1 ATS in their previous 27 games in September. They are just a bad football team.

Baltimore is finally healthy and the flat-out better team. I like them to win the game but ponder on laying the points. The Ravens still have questions at the wide receiver position, and their games tend to be low scoring on the road. Under is 11-4 in Raven’s last 15 road games and 4-0 in their previous four games as a road favorite.

Green Bay Packers  @ Minnesota Vikings (+1.5) 

Minnesota finally moved on from Mike Zimmer and hired an offensive-minded coach in Kevin O’Connell. They have plenty of options on offense, and Kirk Cousins can sling it. It will be interesting to see how their offense looks at home against a Packers team coming off of consecutive 13-win seasons.

Green Bay has been a great regular season team, but the Packers have struggled in Minnesota, posting a 6-8 record over their last 14 trips. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the previous five matchups, and divisional dogs are 58-32-2 ATS since ’04 during Week 1.

The Packers have serious questions at wide receiver, and the Vikings’ offense is explosive. It’s never a great idea to bet against Rodgers, but this game is definitely worth a look.

*****

That’s all for the betting primer! Be sure to check out the Football Friday Show above. What a great slate of games with plenty of different betting angles. I would like to note that in researching the games for this primer, stats, trends, and data were pulled from various outlets, including ESPN, Covers, and The Action Network, among others. These are all great resources for sports bettors, and I highly recommend you do your homework before placing a bet. Enjoy the games, everyone, and happy betting! 

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